NEW YORK TIMES
JANUARY 28, 2010, 12:30 PM
The Growing Underclass: Jobs Gone Forever
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press
Last night, President Obama talked about the need to put people back to work, calling job growth the “No. 1 focus in 2010.”
But one major obstacle to that goal — and one that has so far gone mostly unacknowledged — is that many of the jobs slashed during this recession are not coming back.
Lots of the bloodletting we’ve seen in the labor market has probably been permanent, not just cyclical. Many employers have taken Rahm Emanuel’s famed advice — never waste a crisis — to heart, and have used this recession as an excuse to make layoffs that they would have eventually done anyway. Some economists refer to this as the “cleansing effect” of recessions.
As a recent Congressional Budget Office report put it, “Recessions often accelerate the demise or shrinkage of less efficient and less profitable firms, especially those in declining industries and sectors.”
Think glassmaking. Or clerical work. Or, for that matter, newspapers.
Over all, the share of unemployed workers whose previous job has been permanently lost tends to rise during recessions, and the share of the unemployed who are just on temporary layoff falls. You can see both trends in the chart below.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
In this recession, though, the shift from temporary layoffs to permanent job loss has been especially pronounced. In fact, the share of the unemployed who lost their jobs permanently is at its highest level since at least 1967, the first year for which the Labor Department has these numbers available.
Here’s another way to look at these trends, by what share of the unemployed are represented by each of the five categories of unemployed workers (that is, people who don’t have jobs yet because they’re new entrants to the labor market; re-entrants to the labor market; people who left their jobs; people who are on temporary layoff; and people who lost their jobs permanently).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The big ocean of blue represents the portion of the unemployed who have lost their jobs, with the lighter blue section showing those whose jobs are gone permanently.
There are multiple ways to explain why permanent job-losers represent a higher share of the unemployed this time around. Maybe, as others have suggested, many of the jobs gained in the boom years were built on phantom wealth. Or maybe the culprit is a corollary of Moore’s Law, the idea of exponential advances in technology over time. That might suggest that innovation and automation displace more and more workers by the time each recession rolls around.
Whatever the underlying cause, the result is disconcerting: compared with previous recessions, many more of the employment gains in this recovery will have to come from new jobs.
That is much easier said than done.
Workers whose entire occupations — not just the previous payroll positions they held — are disappearing (think: auto workers) will need to start over and find a new career path. But the new skills they will need take a long time to acquire.
What’s more, in addition to obtaining new degrees or training, some workers may need to move to new places in order to start a different career. But sharp declines in housing prices, plus high loan-to-value ratios on many mortgages before the downturn, will make that transition harder. Homeowners who are “underwater” — that is, who owe more in mortgage payments than their house is actually worth — may not be able to sell their house for enough money to enable them to buy a home in a new area.
All of which is to say that many of the Americans who are already out of work are likely to stay in that miserable state for a long, long time. And the longer they stay unemployed, the harder it will be for them to transition back into the work force, further adding to America’s growing underclass.
The administration is likely to have a big labor (and class) problem on its hands, and one that won’t be solved merely by an increase in the gross domestic product.
Boxer :75,000 permanent foreign workers to our workforce every month ( Rember in NOVEMBER)
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Date: 2010-01-29, 9:49AM PST
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What A Jobs-Focused State-of-the-Union Address Ought To Say About Immigration
By Roy Beck, - posted on NumbersUSA
What Pres. Obama says -- or doesn't say -- about immigration will be the easiest tip-off to whether his first priority truly is putting Americans back to work. Or whether his talk about jobs is mainly a political ploy to gain back support from Independent voters. Here is what he should say (be sure to send this fax to President Obama with State of the Union suggestions) . . .
No. 1: Urge Congress to pass the SAVE Act in the next 30 days
Thus far, federal spending to put (or keep) nearly 1 million Americans in jobs has cost between $200,000 and $350,000 per job. (See my earlier blogs on Stimulus jobs vs. opening up jobs held by illegal foreign workers.)
But the SAVE Act could put up to 7 million jobless Americans back to work for a cost of no more than a few hundred dollars per job, and probably for less than $100!
The majority of the 23 million U-6 unemployed Americans lack a college degree and are looking for jobs in construction, service, manufacturing and transportation. Those are exactly the jobs currently being held by an estimated 7 million illegal aliens (not counting those working in agriculture).
Every principle of justice calls for those jobs to be transferred to 7 million unemployed Americans.
The vehicle to make that happen already exists and has more than 100 bi-partisan co-sponsors in Congress. The SAVE Act (H.R. 3308 and S. 1505) is even sponsored from within the President's own Party by Rep. Shuler (D-N.C.) and Sen. Pryor (D-Ark.).
The Save Act would immediately begin phasing in mandatory use of E-Verify for every employer in America. It also would institute a key provision that would identify multiple uses of the same Social Security number, driving out illegal aliens who have used fraudulent and stolen IDs to get a job.
This should be easy for Pres. Obama who believes in the E-Verify system so much that he implemented an executive order last summer that requires every federal contractor to use it to keep illegal aliens out of their jobs.
No. 2: Suspend the visa lottery and chain migration of extended families.
The President should also call on Congress to quickly pass H.R. 878 of Rep. Gingrey (R-Ga.) to end chain migration and H.R. 2305 of Rep. Goodlatte (R-Va.) to end the lottery.
If the President isn't willing to permanently end those categories for unnecessary foreign workers, then he should work with congressional leaders to move a bill that would temporarily suspend these categories at least until U-6 unemployment falls below 10% and U-3 unemployment falls below 6%.
There can be no excuse for raffling off 50,000 permanent work permits each year while Americans are suffering catastrophic unemployment.
Nor can there be justification for bringing in more than 200,000 permanent foreign workers each year just because they have relatives already here. Understand that chain migration relatives are not spouses or minor children. Rather, they are adults who have their own lives and families back in the home country. When given a Green Card, each of the chain migrants can bring their own nuclear family, and then their spouses can bring in all their siblings and families, so that aunts, uncles, cousins and in-laws multiplied by in-laws eventually get in line.
The chain immigrants are brought into the country with no consideration of their education, their skills or whether the workplace has any need of them. The fact is that they all immediately become competitors with 23 million jobless Americans in seeking the next job that opens up.
No. 3: Stop issuing work permits in any employment category until jobs have been posted on a nationwide help-wanted website.
All immigration categories combined are adding approximately 75,000 permanent foreign workers to our workforce every month (a total of 125,000 new foreign workers a month get either a permanent or temporary work permit).
No President whose top concern is putting his unemployed fellow citizens back to work would allow this to continue. Pres. Obama may find it difficult to bring these numbers to zero, but he should try to move the number as low as possible.
It is incredible that businesses across America have continued to insist on foreign workers instead of taking a look at the suffering U.S. workers begging for jobs just outside their hiring gates. But that is what has happened, and the Bush and Obama Administration have done everything possible to help the businesses avoid hiring U.S. workers.
This has to stop.
At the very least, Pres. Obama should require that every business applying for a visa for a foreign worker post the job on a central help-wanted website so that all unemployed Americans have first crack at the jobs. And the website should provide a full record of how many Americans a business turns down if it still insists on hiring a foreign worker.
If the President doesn't feel he can do this on his own, he should ask for immediate permissive legislation from Congress.
No. 4: Motivate Congress with this terrifying scenario . . .
The President should look out over the sea of 535 Members of Congress and ask them to imagine going back home to a single Congressional District and holding a rally in the biggest stadium or convention center in the District.
Each Congressional District on average has just over 50,000 U-6 unemployed workers.
Imagine gathering all the U-6 unemployed workers of that District. (The average District has 50,000 of them!)
Imagine standing in front of the 50,000 unemployed workers who are failing to find a full-time job and explaining to them why you want to continue to allow 7 million illegal aliens to keep their jobs, why you want to continue to allow chain migration and the lottery to bring in more people to compete with them for their job search, why you intend to do nothing about the handing out of 125,000 work permits to new foreign workers every month.
The President should tell the Members of Congress that if they aren't willing to gather their unemployed voters, look them in the eye and explain why illegal aliens and new foreign workers have precedence over the 50,000 unemployed in every District, then they should back the three big measures outlined above to put millions of Americans back to work.
All of that is what a President would do if putting Americans back to work were his real top priority and not just political rhetoric.
ROY BECK is Founder & CEO of NumbersUSA
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Amnesty legislation will kill jobs (Boxer for open borders!?)
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Date: 2010-01-29, 10:10AM PST
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Amnesty legislation will kill jobs
By Rep. Gary Miller 01/22/10 at 1:00 am
Over the past year, the administration and Congressional Democrats have touted their No. 1 priority as “jobs, jobs, jobs;” however, their actions over the past year have proved otherwise.
As the economy tanked and the number of unemployed soared, the White House pushed a so-called stimulus loaded with money for pet projects and special interests, job-killing cap-and-trade legislation, and a Washington takeover of the health care system.
While the economy has by no means recovered, Congressional Democrats have once again displayed the breadth of their misplaced priorities by introducing mass amnesty legislation in the House of Representatives. The legislation contains a potpourri of highly questionable provisions, but the most outrageous aspect of the bill is that it jeopardizes millions of jobs for Americans and legal residents.
Among its provisions, the legislation recently unveiled by House Democrats grants amnesty to the estimated 12 million illegal aliens currently residing in the United States, thereby protecting them from removal and allowing them to work and travel freely throughout our nation. With over 15 million Americans unemployed and an estimated 7 million illegals employed, granting amnesty to those that have recklessly disregarded our nation’s immigration laws is an affront to American citizens and legal residents.
In addition, the legislation severely weakens existing and proven worksite enforcement activities. The bill throws E-Verify in the trash, a commonsense program which checks workers’ names and Social Security numbers to confirm employment eligibility and enjoys a success rate of 99.6 percent, and reinvents the wheel with a new, yet extremely vague, employment verification system.
Furthermore, the bill increases mandates during immigration-related enforcement activities by requiring the presence of social service agencies, translators and legal services. As the Obama administration has already weakened and cut back on the number of worksite enforcement actions, this provision sends a message to illegals that they can keep coming to the United States and take jobs away from citizens and legal immigrants.
Rather than enacting a “comprehensive” plan that would put illegals on a path to citizenship, I believe that Congress must take an enforcement-first approach to solving our nation’s immigration and border security. To this end, my bill, the Loophole Elimination and Verification Enforcement Act, will stem the inflow of illegal aliens by securing our borders, denying access to American jobs and closing loopholes in our government programs that provide access to benefits.
With an enforcement strategy, the United States could reduce the illegal population by as many as 1.5 million each year, which would more than halve our current illegal alien population in five years, and create 7 million jobs for citizens and legal workers. By securing the border and ending the job magnet, illegals will lack incentives to cross the border and the illegal alien population will begin to dwindle.
All in all, the administration and Congressional Democrats need to get their priorities in order. Millions of Americans are hurting and the unemployment rate is the highest we’ve seen in decades. Let’s put the American people back to work rather than add more to the unemployment roles.
Rep. Gary Miller is a Republican Member of Congress representing California’s 42nd District.
Tags: California, Congress, Gary Miller, Illegal immigration, Illegal immigration to the United States, Immigration, Immigration law, Labor, Legal services, Obama administration, Politics, Republican Member
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Comprehensive Amnesty Threat (15 million Americans out of work +)
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Date: 2010-01-29, 9:53AM PST
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Comprehensive Amnesty Threat
OverviewUpdateQuotesPublicationsPollsIn the NewsOverview
Often referred to as Comprehensive Immigration Reform, pro-amnesty groups seek to offer legal permanent residence to illegal aliens. Comprehensive Immigration Reform bills were introduced in Congress in both 2006 and 2007.
In 2006, separate versions were passed in the Senate and House, but an agreement was never reached in conference committee. In 2007, a version in the Senate proposed by Senators John McCain and Ted Kennedy with support from Pres. Bush failed to reach a cloture vote. The grassroots effort from NumbersUSA members was a major reason why the amnesty failed.
Often referred to as Comprehensive Immigration Reform, pro-amnesty groups seek to offer legal permanent residence to illegal aliens. Comprehensive Immigration Reform bills were introduced in Congress in both 2006 and 2007.
In 2006, separate versions were passed in the Senate and House, but an agreement was never reached in conference committee. In 2007, a version in the Senate proposed by Senators John McCain and Ted Kennedy with support from Pres. Bush failed to reach a cloture vote. The grassroots effort from NumbersUSA members was a major reason why the amnesty failed.
During the 2008 campaign, Pres. Obama offered support for amnesty, and with an overwhelming majority of supporters in the House and Senate, newer versions of the failed bills are likely to be introduced.
New Study Shows Negative Impacts of Illegal Immigration on America's Teens and Young Adults
Wednesday, January 27, 2010, 10:48 AM EST - posted on NumbersUSA
Reps. Lamar Smith and Gary Miller
A new study commissioned by the Chicago Urban League and the Alternative Schools Network reveals the negative impacts of illegal immigration on low-skilled American workers, specifically teens and young adults.
As a result of the study, the group is calling for $1.5 billion of economic stimulus money to help employ young Americans or get them re-enrolled in school. The study found that the unemployment rate among Illinois teens was 20 points below the 2000 level, setting an all-time high. But increased immigration enforcement to root out the estimated 7 million illegal aliens in the U.S. workforce would help free up jobs for America's lower skilled workers.
Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee Lamar Smith (R-Texas) and Rep. Gary Miller (R-Calif.), who introduced the LEAVE Act that would increase interior enforcement, released a statement about the study's findings.
During the course of the 2007-2009 recession, the employment rate of the nation’s teen[s] feel steeply to 26.2% by October-November 2009, setting new record lows each year. No other age group has experienced employment declines of this magnitude in the current recession. Young adults 20-24 years old in both Illinois and the nation also have been adversely affected by the deterioration in labor market developments in the state and nation in recent years, especially men, Blacks and Hispanics, and non-college graduates.
-- Representatives Smith and Miller
In their joint statement, Reps. Smith and Miller said that the jobs these Americans and legal immigrants seek are the same jobs held by illegal aliens.
“The fact is that illegal immigrants take jobs from American workers, particularly poor and disadvantaged citizens and legal immigrants. The best outcome for low-skilled citizen and legal immigrant workers is the removal of the illegal immigrant population. The very jobs that illegal immigrants occupy rightfully belong to out of work citizens and legal immigrants," Ranking Member Smith added. “With 15 million Americans out of work, we need to enforce immigration laws and oppose amnesty for 12 million illegal immigrants. We must stand up for citizens and legal immigrants.”
“At home in California, almost weekly I hear from my constituents that illegal immigration is exacerbating the unemployment crisis," Rep. Miller said. "Today’s report that a record number of young Americans are jobless once again highlights the fact that we must enforce our current immigration laws to ensure illegals do not take away jobs that rightfully belong to American and legal workers.”
Reps. Smith and Miller recently formed the Reclaim American Jobs Caucus.
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