TRUMP'S DACA AMNESTY: NO REAL WALL, NO REAL E-VERIFY, NO REAL ENFORCEMENT AND NO REAL BORDERS

Walls have a variety of purposes.  In the Soviet Union and East Germany, walls and fences were designed to keep people in, not to keep people out.  Few chose to go "Back to the USSR," as The Beatles sang, other than newl...

January 15, 2018

DACA Will Be a Wall around the White House

By Brian C. Joondeph

Walls have a variety of purposes.  In the Soviet Union and East Germany, walls and fences were designed to keep people in, not to keep people out.  Few chose to go "Back to the USSR," as The Beatles sang, other than newlyweds Mr. and Mrs. Bernie Sanders, who honeymooned there.

Walls also keep people out.  Examples include the wall around Vatican City, the one in Israel's West Bank, and the ones around the homes of open borders advocates like Mark Zuckerberg.  Many of the "walls for me but not for thee" virtue-signaling Hollywood elites have walls, fences, and all manner of security measures keeping uninvited guests from invading their domiciles.

How can DACA be a wall?  Not in the way you might think.  If Lindsey Grahamnesty and his fellow congressional amnesty fanboys and fangirls get their way, giving the "DREAMers" citizenship and the right to vote, this will create a wall around the White House.

This wall is not to be confused with the fence around the White House that mischievous sorts like to jump over, embarrassing the Secret Service.  Instead, this wall will keep any Republican from ever living in the White House again.

Where are the 700,000 "DREAMers" in the U.S. living?  And twice the number of illegal immigrants eligible for DACA?  And if they vote, how will they vote?  What does that mean for the Electoral College in the 2020 presidential election?

From the Migration Policy Institute's map of DACA recipients by state andPolitico's election results by state, how might the next presidential election play out if "DREAMers" are able to vote?

A 2012 study of 2,900 foreign-born naturalized immigrants found that 62 percent identified as Democrats and 25 percent as Republicans.  That's a 2.5-fold difference favoring Democrats.

A Pew Research Center study from the same year found that undocumented latino immigrants identified 31 percent Democrat and 4 percent Republican, an eightfold difference.

Suffice it to say that the majority of "DREAMers" would pull the lever for the presidential candidate with the letter D after his name.

Where are DACA recipients living in the U.S.?  Let's also distinguish between actual DACA recipients and those meeting all the criteria to apply.  If DACA recipients are given a pathway to citizenship, it's likely that most or all those eligible will take advantage of American largess and become voting citizens.

The Migration Policy Institute identifies about 690,000 recipients and 1,326,000 eligible.  For this analysis, I will use the numbers for the DACA-eligible, about twice the number of current recipients.

The Washington Post provides a rough approximation of where they live.

Forget large states like California, Illinois, and New York, as these are already solidly blue.  Trump won Texas by around 800,000 votes, while only 182,000 DACA-eligible live in Texas, so that state won't likely flip.

Trump won Arizona by 85,000 votes, with 36,000 DACA-eligible – not an insurmountable margin.  Michigan went for Trump by only 12,000 votes, with 10,000 DACA-eligible.  Easy state to flip.  Wisconsin voters picked Trump by 27,000 votes, with 10,000 DACA-eligible.  Again, easy to flip.

Trump won Florida by 119,000 votes, with 72,000 DACA-eligible.  The small remaining difference is easily surpassed by a good portion of the 73,000 hurricane refugees from Puerto Rico, now living in Florida, voting Democrat.

You get my point.  It won't be difficult to flip a few states from red to blue, painting the Electoral College map mostly blue and keeping a Republican out of the White House for the foreseeable future – all accomplished by legalizing the "DREAMers" and those eligible for DACA.

Going farther is blanket amnesty for all illegals in the U.S. – not a million, but perhaps ten or twenty million.  Enough to turn a solidly red state like Texas blue.  Lights out for a Republican ever winning the presidency after that.

Lastly, if Trump caves on immigration, his core issue, many of his supporters will stay home, amplifying the votes of the "DREAMers" and painting the electoral map a deeper shade of blue.

No wonder Democrats are so eager for DACA amnesty.  Don't listen just to Pelosi and Schumer.  Instead, read what the Center for American Progress (better named the Center for Liberal Progress) circulated in a memo written by former Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri.  She admitted that the DACA "DREAMers" are "[a] critical component of the Democratic Party's future electoral success."

No kidding.  That's exactly why Ted Kennedy pushed the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965, opening American doors to anyone able to get here as well as his brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins, plus any other supposed relatives, filling the voter rolls with loyal Democrats for generations.

Legalizing the "DREAMers" will have a similar effect, especially if Congress doesn't end chain migration.

Immigration is one of the primary reasons why Donald Trump is president.  His supporters are understandably nervous about his recent promise that whatever immigration Congress send him, "I will be signing it."

Trump's a smart guy, despite assertions to the contrary in Michael Wolff's book, and knows the importance of dancing with the base who brought him.  I'm sure the Republican leadership in Congress knows this as well and won't allow a lousy bill to reach Trump's desk – meaning one without funding for the wall as well as continuation of chain migration and the green card lottery.

If Trump get what he wants but legalizes the "DREAMers," his road to 270 electoral votes in 2020 may be far more difficult, if not impossible.  If I can see this, I am sure he can, too.  Despite my trepidation over his recent comments, I am content to wait for the final bill to emerge.  "Let's see what happens," as the president likes to say.

Trump has kept his campaign promises thus far, and I suspect that despite Lindsey Grahamnesty's giddiness over a "pathway to citizenship," the president will have the last laugh.  His political future depends on it.

Brian C Joondeph, M.D., MPS is a Denver-based physician and writer.  Follow him on Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter. 

WASHINGTON SECRETS

Criminal illegals, tax cheats, sanctuary cities OK'd in Gang of Six immigration deal

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/criminal-illegals-tax-cheats-sanctuary-cities-okd-in-gang-of-six-immigration-deal/article/2645738

by Paul bEdard |  From left, President Donald Trump, accompanied by Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen, Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., Vice President Mike Pence, Senate Majority Whip Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas., and Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., speaks during a meeting on immigration in the Roosevelt Room at the White House, Thursday, Jan. 4, 2018, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

A plan to reform immigration and grant amnesty to nearly 700,000 young adults that is being shopped by six senators would waive some criminal convictions, let 300 “sanctuary cities” off the hook and starve Immigration and Customs Enforcement of funds to track down and deport criminal illegals, according to a new analysis of the proposal.

“This proposal is not a serious effort to find common ground with either the majority of congressional Republicans or the president,” according to immigration expert Jessica M. Vaughan, director of policy studies for the Center for Immigration Studies.

“It pays only lip service to what is required to achieve the immigration policy improvements that Americans seek, and that they elected Donald Trump to accomplish,” she added in a new analysis released Friday.

She obtained the details of the plan and found several areas that clash with the basic wishes of the White House and promises made by Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign.

“Judging by details obtained by the Center, the aim is actually maximum amnesty, minimum border security and no cuts to legal immigration, and not a good faith effort to reach a deal with either the House of Representatives or the president,” wrote Vaughan.

You can see her full analysis here, but below are some of her key points:

• Dreamer amnesty would allow waivers for certain criminal convictions that exist under current law, if deemed to be "in the public interest."
• Applicants for the program would have to pay up on any federal tax liability, if they had a DACA work permit, but not if they worked illegally prior to legalization.
• The proposal claims to restrict chain migration, by eliminating the category for adult sons and daughters of green card holders, which admits about 26,000 people a year. However, it transfers those numbers to another chain migration category for spouses of green card holders and their children. So there is no net decrease in chain migration at all under this proposal.
• There is no funding for ICE or interior enforcement, no expansion of E-Verify, nor any provisions to address the broken asylum system, sanctuary cities, the continued influx of illegal families and minors from Central America, visa overstays, an entry-exit system, the backlogged immigration court, illegal employment, or any of the other needs compiled at the president's request prepared by career immigration agency officials.

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com

OPINION Contributors

The House GOP immigration bill is big business populism

by Ryan Girdusky | Jan 13, 2018, 12:01 AM

On Wednesday, Republicans unveiled a House immigration proposal that was endorsed within hours by the White House. The plan is a mix of parts of President Trump’s populist agenda with visa expansions to big business and agricultural lobbyists.

Overall, it's a good plan, but it wouldn’t help working-class voters that make up Trump’s base as much as he promised.

The Securing America’s Future Act gives Trump supporters basically everything they want on border enforcement, including a border wall, 5,000 new U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agents, a biometric exit-entry system, and advanced border technology, including drones.

In addition, it will create a nationwide, mandatory E-Verify system that will prevent employers from hiring future illegal immigrants. This will be a game changer, as it will make businesses liable if they undercut American workers by hiring illegal immigrants. This would in turn defeat the No. 1 driver of illegal immigration to the United States.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the bill ends chain migration, thus reducing legal immigration by 25 percent, only half of what Trump proposed last year. Citizens and green card holders will only be allowed to bring in their spouse and minor children, but there will be a renewable temporary visa for the parents of American citizens and green card holders, so they can visit for an extended period of time. It would also end the Diversity Visa Lottery system.

That’s the good news for Trump supporters, but the trade-off may be too big a bullet to bite.

DACA recipients who proved they weren’t members of gangs and had no criminal convictions would be eligible for a three-year, renewable legal status that would allow them to live, work, and travel in the U.S. Those recipients would also be allowed to use work or marriage sponsorships to earn green cards and eventually citizenship if they qualify down the road, but it’s not a guaranteed path to citizenship.

This is a fine deal that most Trump supporters would fully accept, but there’s one last provision in the bill that benefits big business at the expense of working-class Americans.

The bill proposes a 45 percent increase in employment-based visas for skilled workers — 55,000 new visas total. Additionally the bill creates an entirely new visa lottery system that would allow for the agriculture industry to bring in possibly hundreds of thousands of new workers annually. This part of the bill is a benefit to an industry that was just beginning to increase wages and offer benefits to draw more American labor.

This is corporate populism, Republicans promising to enact Trump’s policies but only if their donors receive some kind of benefit.

Trump’s original plan, backed up by the Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment Act, or RAISE, would have cut legal immigration without creating any new visa program, and it would have significantly cut the amount of unskilled foreign labor and competition facing working-class Americans. This proposal only dances around the edges and increases foreign labor in some circumstances.

Mass immigration has come at a huge expense for working-class Americans, and it has helped fuel Trump’s populist movement. While the Securing America’s Future Act is the best enforcement bill that also deals with the DACA population, it still does not address the concerns of Trump’s base.

Unless the bill can aid American workers more than corporations, it will not stem the tide of discontent among Trump’s base who feel like Washington is a swamp that looks out for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Ryan Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is a writer based in New York.