Friday, February 14, 2020

TRUMP LANDSLIDE? "I can fuck them over, put money in my pockets and the sheeple will still vote for me again because Dems are even worse!" Donald Trump - "The remarkable thing is how weak wages are, how weak the economy is, given that as a result of the tax bill we have a $1 trillion deficit.”

“The remarkable thing is how weak wages are, how weak the economy is, given that as a result of the tax bill we have a $1 trillion deficit.”

#Trump2020Landslide – By the Numbers

A popular Twitter hashtag is #Trump2020Landslide. Is this wishful thinking or a real possibility? Let’s look at the electoral landscape over the next 9 months.
As an initial caveat, understand the difference between confidence and overconfidence. The former is a realistic expectation going forward of favorable electoral winds based on a thoughtful analysis. The latter is thoughtless and dangerous based on emotion and desire, rather than data and realism.
Republicans learned this lesson during the George HW Bush presidency. Bush enjoyed an 89 percent Gallup job approval in February 1991 after US victory in the Persian Gulf War. A little over a year later the bottom fell out after Bush reneged on his campaign promise, “Read my lips, no new taxes,” nudging the economy into a recession. In July 1992, his approval rating was an anemic 29 percent. Welcome, President Bill Clinton.
Could something similar befall the Trump reelection efforts? Certainly. The economy is strong, but economies are cyclic, and recessions inevitably occur. The media can’t destroy Trump as they didn’t create him. Big media has been shooting spitballs at Superman Trump, everything bouncing off him and smacking the media in the face.
The only way Trump could lose his loyal base of support is through his own actions. If Ruth Bader Ginsburg left the Supreme Court, with or without a pulse, and Trump nominated uber-liberal Lawrence Tribe as her replacement, he would lose his base. If he began tearing down the wall rather than building it or signed on to Medicare-for-all or the Green New Deal, then he would suffer and same fate as George HW Bush, but that’s as likely as Bernie Sanders denouncing communism in favor of capitalism.
What do the numbers say after President Trump’s marvelous week of the Iowa caucuses, impeachment acquittal in the Senate, the State of the Union address, and increasing Democrat chaos and confusion?
Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster predicting the 2016 presidential election outcome, tracks presidential approval by day and by president. On February 12, in their Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump’s total approval sits at 50 percent, a point higher than Obama exactly 8 years ago when he too was facing reelection.
YouTube screen grab
Trump today faces a headwind of hostile media, academia, entertainment industry, and the Democrat Party. In contrast, Obama had mostly tailwinds and sailed to easy reelection over Pierre Delecto, aka Mitt Romney. Trump has hovered around 50 percent approval for the past two years, usually a few points higher than Obama, despite the multifront attack on his presidency and person.
Despite his many flaws, Mitt Romney was a far more serious candidate for president in 2012 compared to the current Democrat clown show – an old socialist, a gay socialist, a fake-Indian socialist, a bully socialist, and a short socialist.
Gallup also has a presidential tracking poll which shows Trump at 49 percent approval, the highest number during his 3 years in the White House. Everything the media and the Democrats (sorry for the redundancy) has thrown at Trump has only made him stronger and the Democrats weaker.
Other numbers trend in Trump’s favor. The Dow is pushing 30,000, unemployment is at historic lows, wages are up, family incomes are as well, and the latest jobs report of 225,000 new jobs in January beat expectations, as CNN tearfully admitted.
Gallup has taken those blockbuster economic numbers and translated them into how they affect people’s lives, rather than simply as favorable statistics. A week ago, Gallup reported, “59% in U.S. say they are now better off financially than last year and 74% say they will be better off financially in a year.”
The rising tide is lifting many boats and voters may think twice about sinking the boat of peace and prosperity by voting for a socialist just because Trump tweets and uses coarse language.
Gallup also tossed in this tidbit,
Nine in 10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in their personal life, a new high in Gallup's four-decade trend. The latest figure bests the previous high of 88% recorded in 2003.
Good luck to any of the angry Democrats selling dissatisfaction over satisfaction.
The two recent primary elections provide some interesting numbers. Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale tweeted,
Despite running against 16 opponents, President @realDonaldTrump won 100% of delegates and the highest number of votes for an incumbent in the modern political history of the New Hampshire primary. This includes both parties!
So much for the media claim that “no one likes Trump” and can’t wait to vote him out of office. Quite the opposite.
ABC News crank Jonathan Karl noted the obvious regarding crowd size, another number, and enthusiasm. Republicans are enthusiastic over President Trump, while Democrats are melancholic over their gaggle of angry socialists.
After the President held a pre-primary rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, Karl observed, “Trump supporters are as fired up as I have ever seen them.” How about that? Not what the wizards of smart on cable news have been telling everyone.
Karl went on, “We have a bigger crowd without a doubt simply for Donald Trump than we had on Saturday for every one of the Democrats.”
YouTube screen grab
For those who want something more quantitative than crowd size and energy, there is this from Bloomberg, the website not the candidate, reporting three economic models predicting a #Trump2020 victory.
An enduring U.S. expansion puts President Donald Trump on course to win re-election in 2020, according to economic models with a track record of predicting who wins the White House.
I did suggest a possible landslide. Am I just a starry-eyed Trumpster, overly optimistic but unrealistic? Perhaps, but Politico is not in that category and they agree with me. This is their headline from last March, “How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide.”
CNN surprisingly concurs. In June, they proclaimed, “If economy holds, Trump wins 2020 in a landslide.” CNN, in October, reported Moody’s forecast, “Trump will win election in landslide.”
Remember that President Trump isn’t even in serious campaign mode yet. He is busy draining the swamp of NSC saboteurs like the Brothers Vindman and Roger Stone’s prosecuting attorneys. Senate investigations into deep state sedition are set to begin, China is floundering as badly as the Democrat party and the Dow keeps rising.
AG Barr and Durham toil away, quietly, without leaks. Does anyone really believe Trump will not demand a reckoning for those who wronged him, his family and friends, and his presidency? As the enigmatic Q predicted, “Accountability is coming.”
Could 2020 be a Trump landslide? Very possibly, but the election is many months away. Be confident but not complacent, and most of all be happy you are not a Democrat or NeverTrumper. For them the worst is yet to come while for America, as Trump said, “The best is yet to come.”
Brian C Joondeph, MD, is a Denver based physician and freelance writer whose pieces have appeared in American Thinker, Daily Caller, and other publications. Follow him on Facebook LinkedInTwitter, and QuodVerum


Consumer Sentiment Soars on Improved Optimism and Best Income Gains Since 1960

Supporters hold up MAGA hats as US President Donald Trump speaks during a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire on February 10, 2020. (Photo by JIM WATSON / AFP) (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images
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American households are beginning the new year full of hope for the future, satisfaction with personal finances, improved outlooks for the economy, and rising incomes and wealth.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 100.9 in early February, higher than expectations for 99.7 and above the 99.8 level hit in January. That nearly matches March 2018’s 101.4, which was the highest score since 2004, making February the second-best reading in 15 years.
Improved consumer sentiment complicates Democratic plans to run against Trump’s economy by arguing that the gains are leaving too many Americans behind. In fact, gains in household wealth were reported more frequently in early February than any prior time since 1960, the University of Michigan’s survey of consumers showed.
The expectations index, a gauge of future economic conditions, rose to 92.6, the second-highest reading since the end of the last recession. Consumers’ evaluations of their personal financial situation as well as the national economy improved in the month.
Neither the coronavirus nor politics is having a big impact on consumer sentiment yet. The coronavirus was mentioned by just 7 percent of consumers surveyed and just 10 percent mentioned some aspect of the election as having an impact on their economic expectations.

Donald Trump’s Economic Record Isn’t What He Says It Is

He claims the economy is “the best it has ever been.” A closer look at the data tells a different story.
February 5, 2020
U.S. Department of Agriculture/Flickr
Donald Trump has been on a mission this week to distract from his impeachment by touting his administration’s economic record. First, he launched a 30-second ad after the Super Bowl promising that “the best is yet to come.” Then, in his State of the Union address Tuesday night, Trump highlighted the “American Comeback.” The speech was full of audacious—and characteristically inaccurate—claims: “our economy is the best it has ever been”; the “average unemployment rate … is lower than any administration in the history of our country”; and “wages are rising fast.”
The reality, however, doesn’t match Trump’s 
rhetoric. In fact, it would take much longer than a 
30-second commercial to highlight the many 
ways that the U.S. economy isn’t working for all
Still, the moment provides an opening for Democratic presidential candidates to challenge the president’s record.
In 2019, for instance, the gap between the richest and poorest households in the United States reached its highest point in more than 50 years. The number of Americans without health insurance continues to climb following years of declines since the passage and implementation of Obamacare. And household debt is now in excess of $14 trillion, exceeding the pre-recession high.
Even with low unemployment, wage growth is lagging. The most recent employment report reported wages increasing by just 2.9 percent over the last year. With inflation at 2.1 percent, that’s not much of a pay raise. To the extent that wage growth has picked up in recent months, a major contributor has been increases in state and local minimum wages that Republicans and the president opposed.
Trump’s signature legislative accomplishment, the 2017 tax cut, has produced none of its promised benefits, including the $4,000 pay raise that he and his allies promised to American workers. 
In fact, as a result of the tax cut, 91 companies in the Fortune 500 paid no federal taxes last year. The country’s six biggest banks saved $32 billion at the same time that they laid off more than 1,000 employees.
The tax cut has also failed to produce the “four, five and even six percent” economic growth that Trump promised. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the GDP growth of 2.1 percent was lower than both the growth rate before the tax cut was passed in 2017 and the average of Obama’s second term (2.4 percent). Instead, the tax cuts have produced annual budget deficits of $1 trillion, which Trump has signaled may lead to cuts in Social Security and Medicare, in addition to his ongoing efforts to erode the social safety net.
Ironically, despite the president’s pledge to help the “forgotten men and women,” blue-collar job growth—which includes construction, manufacturing, and mining—remains anemic, only growing at 0.8 percent in 2019 compared to 2 percent in Obama’s final term.
What’s more, the ongoing trade war plunged the manufacturing sector into recession last year, which has stunted economic growth in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Tensions with China produced a 24 percent increase in farm bankruptcies last year, with the most coming from Wisconsin. The Congressional Budget Office estimated recently that Trump’s trade policies will cost American households an average of $1,277 this year.
Worse yet, employers reported the highest number
of layoffs in four years. For workers who are able 
to find new jobs, data shows they earn about 10 
percent less than before. That gap is even greater 
for workers who were at the same job for three 
years or more.
But while the economic reality under Trump is troubling for most Americans overall, it’s even more daunting for African-American workers, who have an unemployment rate almost twice as high as white workers. Displaced African Americans earn 13 percent less in their new jobs. Those who were employed for three or more years earned 31 percent less in their new jobs.
Despite the headlines, too many workers are not feeling the economic boom Trump describes. Instead of making investments to provide Americans with the world-class education and training needed for 21st-century jobs, the president and the Republican Congress chose stock buybacks to benefit the wealthy and a temporary sugar high for the economy that has now worn off.
Democrats can and should challenge Trump on the economy in 2020. Millions of workers are looking for good jobs and a pay raise. Policies to build an economy for all should be central to any campaign’s message. But it’s more than just good politics. Building an economy that works for the 90 percent instead of just the top 10 percent is sound economic policy.
“The remarkable thing is how weak wages are, how weak the economy is, given that as a result of the tax bill we have a $1 trillion deficit.”

 

Donald Trump is ‘just wrong’ about the economy, says Nobel Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz


President Donald Trump told business and political leaders in Davos, Switzerland last week that the economy under his tenure has lifted up working- and middle-class Americans. In a newly released interview, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz sharply disagreed, saying Trump’s characterization is “just wrong.” 
“The Washington Post has kept a tab of how many lies and misrepresentations he does a day,” Stiglitz said of Trump last Friday at the annual World Economic Forum. “I think he outdid himself.”
In Davos last Tuesday, Trump said he has presided over a “blue-collar boom,” citing a historically low unemployment rate and surging wage growth among workers at the bottom of the pay scale.
“The American Dream is back — bigger, better, and stronger than ever before,” Trump said. “No one is benefitting more than America’s middle class.”
Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University who won the Nobel Prize in 2001, refuted the claim, saying the failure of Trump’s economic policies is evident in the decline in average life expectancy among Americans over each of the past three years.
“A lot of it is what they call deaths of despair,” he says. “Suicide, drug overdose, alcoholism — it’s not a pretty picture.”
The uptick in wage growth is a result of the economic cycle, not Trump’s policies, Stiglitz said.
“At this point in an economic recovery, it’s been 10 years since the great recession, labor markets get tight, unemployment gets lower, and that at last starts having wages go up,” Stiglitz says.
“The remarkable thing is how weak wages are, how weak the economy is, given that as a result of the tax bill we have a $1 trillion deficit.”
As the presidential race inches closer to the general election in November, Trump’s record on economic growth — and whether it has resulted in broad-based gains — is likely to draw increased attention.
BLOG: THE GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH TO THE RICH OCCURRED DURING THE OBAMA-BIDEN BANKSTER REGIME
“The middle class is getting killed; the middle class is getting crushed," former Vice President Joe Biden said in a Democratic presidential debate last month. "Where I live, folks aren't measuring the economy by how the Dow Jones is doing, they're measuring the economy by how they're doing," added Pete Buttigieg, a Democratic presidential candidate and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Trump has criticized Democrats for tax and regulatory policies that he says will make the U.S. less competitive in attracting business investment.
“To every business looking for a place where they are free to invest, build, thrive, innovate, and succeed, there is no better place on Earth than the United States,” he said in Davos.
Stiglitz pointed to Trump’s threats last week of tariffs on European cars to demonstrate that turmoil in U.S. trade relationships may continue, despite the recent completion of U.S. trade deals in North America and China.
“He can’t help but bully somebody,” Stiglitz said.
Max Zahn is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Find hi


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