WE NEED TO WATCH HOW THE SUPER RICH GET MUCH RICHER AFTER THE DEPRESSION OF 2020
This recession might be worse than 2009, IMF says
The global economy is on track for a short but sharp recession this year, according to a statement from the International Monetary Fund, as the impact from the coronavirus pandemic weighs on economies throughout the world.
The outlook for worldwide economic growth this year is negative, said Kristalina Georgieva, a managing director of IMF, in a statement Monday. The impending recession will be "at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse," she said.
The IMF expects that growth will rebound in 2021.
"The economic impact is and will be severe, but the faster the virus stops, the quicker and stronger the recovery will be," Georgieva said.
19 min ago
The global economy is on track for a short but sharp recession this year, according to a statement from the International Monetary Fund, as the impact from the coronavirus pandemic weighs on economies throughout the world.
The outlook for worldwide economic growth this year is negative, said Kristalina Georgieva, a managing director of IMF, in a statement Monday. The impending recession will be "at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse," she said.
The IMF expects that growth will rebound in 2021.
"The economic impact is and will be severe, but the faster the virus stops, the quicker and stronger the recovery will be," Georgieva said.
Global economic slump accelerating
As the coronavirus spreads, taking more lives at an escalating rate, its effects are penetrating ever deeper into the global economy.
Goldman Sachs warned last week that US gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by 24 percent in the second quarter. There are forecasts that up to 5 million jobs will be lost in the American economy this year, with the fall in economic output to total as much as $1.5 trillion.
Goldman expects, at this stage, that US output will contract 3.1 percent this year and the unemployment rate will rise to 9 percent from the current level of 3.5 percent. This is on a par with the jobless rate of 10 percent in October 2009, following the financial meltdown of 2008.
But just as the health impact of the virus was significantly underestimated, the same may apply to the current economic forecasts.
“Things look so gloomy right now that perhaps we should be grateful if we can get out of this health crisis with a brief recession,” Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group told the Wall Street Journal.
“You just cannot rule out the prospect of a longer, more destructive depression,” he said.
In other words, a relatively short but deep recession is now the “best case” scenario.
The eurozone is expected to experience a fall of around 10 percent of GDP. But this forecast could well be exceeded. There is no end in sight to the spread of the virus and no clear assessment of the economic effect of the shutdowns being implemented to try to combat it.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the chief economist of the European Union, Paolo Gentiloni, indicated that officials were working on new measures.
“The consensus is growing day by day that we need to face an extraordinary crisis with extraordinary tools,” he said.
“This idea of a V-shape [recovery] that you can see in the first semester of 2020 is now completely impossible. We have no previous analysis of the impact of such a widespread lockdown in major economies.”
Gentolini conducted the interview as part of a political battle inside the EU over the economic and financial measures, bringing further into the open the widening rifts between leading member states.
Powerful forces in Germany and the Netherlands are opposed to all-European action, regarding this as a bailout for weaker economies such as Italy.
On the other side, the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire last week warned that failure to act in a unified manner meant the eurozone was in danger of disappearing.
European Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Münchau wrote yesterday that the situation facing the eurozone was “far worse” than the sovereign debt crisis of 2012.
“The coronavirus will prove to be an economic shock, a corporate solvency crisis and a political crisis all folded into one,” he said.
Münchau noted that European countries had fiscal stabilisers such as unemployment insurance, but these “shock absorbers” were designed to deal with “normal fluctuations.” They were not “big enough or strong enough for emergencies like this one.”
Pointing to the deepening divisions in Europe, Münchau wrote that not everyone would want to be in a monetary union with countries like the Netherlands where the prime minister was “ideologically opposed” to all-European measures. “This sort of unwilling partnership is not sustainable.”
In the absence of data on overall output, the Financial Times conducted a survey, particularly covering retail and services, to give some indication of what to expect.
It showed that vehicular traffic had halved in many of the world’s largest cities, while spending in restaurants and cinemas had collapsed.
Greg Daco, the chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said: “Looking at the data across various sectors of the US economy, it appears we could be heading for the most severe contraction in consumer spending on record.”
The rapid shrinkage in the real economy will further escalate the already severe crisis in the financial system, and extend from the stock and credit markets to the banks.
In a Financial Times comment, Sheila Bair, the former chief of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, wrote: “Big banks throughout the world are substantially exposed to the pandemic, particularly as it hurts corporate borrowers.”
Around the world, non-financial corporations covering every industry, including the hard-hit energy, transport, retail and hospitality sectors, had racked up debts to the tune of $70 trillion, she wrote.
“To survive, they are increasingly hoarding cash and tapping into their massive back-up lines of credit, placing additional strain on the banking system,” Bair wrote, noting that as bond markets “seize up,” bank credit may be their only source of cash.
But the ability to supply credit, she wrote, had been considerably weakened by the $325 billion paid out by the major global banks last year on dividends and share buybacks, some $155 billion of which was laid out by the eight largest banks in the US.
Meanwhile, fears are growing that the enormous pile of debt around the world could start to collapse as the economic effects of the coronavirus deepen and widen.
According to the Institute of International Finance, in a report published last November, total global corporate, government, finance sector and household debt had reached $253 trillion, equivalent to 322 percent of global GDP.
The unravelling could start in so-called emerging market economies where there is $72.5 trillion of debt, much of it denominated in US dollars. The growing dollar shortage in international markets, which has seen national currencies fall against the greenback, means obligations on interest and principal payments are rapidly rising.
This increase in the debt burden is occurring as all economies drop into recession, or something worse, and have less cash to meet their commitments.
It is not just emerging market economies that are affected. The Australian dollar, one of the most traded in the world, saw its rate against the US dollar drop to as low as 55 cents last week, compared to just under 70 cents a few months ago.
This means that the debt burden of a company or financial institution that had raised $100 million, when the Australian dollar traded at 70 cents to the US currency, would rise in Australian dollar terms from $A143 million to more than $A180 million when the Australian dollar fell to 55 cents, placing it under enormous strain as revenues drop.
The cash flow crisis is striking at the heart of the major economies as well.
In the UK, the Tory government is considering a plan to take out equity holdings in airlines and other companies because the economic stimulus packages announced so far are not sufficient to prevent collapses.
In the US, the Wall Street Journal has reported that “scores of US companies,” from the aircraft maker Boeing to the telecommunications Verizon, are “furiously lobbying” to be included in the bailout packages being prepared by the Trump administration that could run as high as $2 trillion.
For more than a century, the semi-official religion in the US has been the denunciation of socialism, which Trump had planned to make the centre of his re-election campaign.
Now the universal cry is: the state must intervene; once again billions must be handed to the corporations on an even larger scale than in the crisis of 2008.
The calls will only get louder. According to a Wall Street Journal report yesterday, investors and analysts say the more than 30 percent drop in the share market over the past month is not over, despite extraordinary actions by the Fed involving trillions of dollars.
Summing up the voracious outlook in corporate and financial circles, a representative of the global investment and banking firm State Street, told the Journal: “Market participants need to feel they are backstopped without question.”
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No corporate bailouts! Direct financial resources to the working people, not the capitalist elite!
As the new week begins, the number of people infected by the COVID-19 virus is rising exponentially in the United States. New York City, which is now the epicenter of the pandemic, is threatened with a breakdown of its healthcare system and a tragic rise in the number of deaths. Given the absence of mass testing to determine the locations of infected people, it is all but certain that the social disaster now unfolding in New York, California and Washington state will spread rapidly in the coming days and weeks throughout the country.
As the pandemic spreads, the economic impact is acquiring dimensions that are without precedent in the history of the United States. As people are being instructed to “shelter in place” and practice “social distancing,” the economy is shutting down. Small- and medium-size businesses, especially in the retail and service industries, are without customers and being forced to close their doors. The need to halt all nonessential production means that the number of unemployed will rapidly reach levels that will equal and possibly exceed those of the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Large sections of the working class and middle class are threatened with the loss of their income and the ability to put food on their tables and cover their weekly and monthly expenses. In a country where tens of millions have little or no savings and live from paycheck to paycheck, the pandemic is a social catastrophe even for those who are not infected by the virus.
Emergency funding to fully cover the lost wages and salaries of all working class and middle class families must be the urgent and unconditional priority of the economic response to the pandemic. Mortgage and rent payments, car loans, medical expenses, insurance premiums, and tuition and student debt must be suspended for the duration of the health crisis.
At the same time, small- and medium-size businesses must receive financial support so that they can avoid bankruptcy and reopen their enterprises as soon as medical conditions permit.
Money must also be made available to guarantee the survival of educational, cultural and other socially essential institutions.
This program, which prioritizes the needs and interests of the working class, is diametrically opposed to the multitrillion-dollar “fiscal stimulus” that is being worked out in closed-door negotiations between the Trump administration, congressional leaders and corporate executives.
While deceitful and cynical lip service is being paid to protecting workers, the only purpose of the negotiations in Washington is to protect the wealth and profits of the superrich corporate-financial oligarchs. On a scale even greater than the bailout of 2008-09, the titans of Wall Street and the corporate boardrooms are demanding that the government place limitless sums at their disposal.
Up to this point, the federal government has spent less than $10 billion on emergency disaster relief related to the pandemic. And yet the US Treasury has purchased some $600 billion in securities in recent weeks, meaning it has spent 60 times more money propping up the banks than on addressing the healthcare crisis.
On top of the more than $2 trillion that has already been pledged to backstop the values of financial assets held by major banks, Congress is debating an additional $2 trillion bailout package.
The vast majority of that proposal consists in various handouts to business in the form of a payroll tax holiday and loans, including measures specifically targeting the airline and other industries. Less than $50 billion of the bill funds emergency measures to combat the pandemic. Just one company, Boeing, is demanding a bailout larger than every public health measure contained in the bill.
While the Republicans and Democrats haggle over details of the bailout, they agree that 1) massive sums of money must be funneled through the major corporations; 2) that no measures be taken that limit or threaten the wealth of the executives and large investors; and 3) that the interests of the capitalist profit system and private property will remain unmolested and unchallenged. The banks and large corporations will not only continue to rule. These institutions and their executives and large shareholders are to emerge from the crisis richer and more powerful than ever.
The New York Times declared in an editorial published yesterday, “The only practical way to limit mass unemployment, and to preserve previously viable companies, is for the government to pump money into the private sector.”
The last time this was done, in the response to the 2008 crash, the outcome was a bonanza for the superrich and affluent holders of financial assets. The wealth of the 400 richest people in America soared from $1.27 trillion in 2009 to $2.96 trillion in 2019.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos had a net worth of $6.8 billion in 2009, and by 2018 it was $160 billion. Warren Buffett had a net worth of $37 billion in 2009, which grew to $90 billion last year. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was worth just $2 billion in 2009, but he saw his wealth grow 40-fold, hitting $85 billion in 2019. And Tesla CEO Elon Musk has had his wealth rise even faster, doubling from $20 billion in May of 2019 to $45 billion earlier this year.
In 2019, US companies spent $798 billion buying back their own stock, a figure exceeding even what was spent before the 2008 financial crisis.
Share buybacks were one of the principal means employed by corporate executives to enrich themselves. As the Harvard Business Review explained:
The 465 companies in the S&P 500 Index in January 2019 that were publicly listed between 2009 and 2018 spent, over that decade, $4.3 trillion on buybacks, equal to 52% of net income, and another $3.3 trillion on dividends, an additional 39% of net income. In 2018 alone, even with after-tax profits at record levels because of the Republican tax cuts, buybacks by S&P 500 companies reached an astounding 68% of net income, with dividends absorbing another 41%.
Why have U.S. companies done these massive buybacks? With the majority of their compensation coming from stock options and stock awards, senior corporate executives have used open-market repurchases to manipulate their companies’ stock prices to their own benefit and that of others who are in the business of timing the buying and selling of publicly listed shares. Buybacks enrich these opportunistic share sellers—investment bankers and hedge-fund managers as well as senior corporate executives—at the expense of employees, as well as continuing shareholders.
The ugly reality of capitalist financial practices and the grotesque plundering of corporate assets refute the lying phrase that is intoned whenever reference is made to the needs of the working class: “There is no money!”
The problem is not an absence of money, but the control of society’s productive forces by the capitalist class.
The Socialist Equality Party emphatically rejects the bailout of the corporations. We demand that the banks and monopolistic corporations, controlling assets valued in the tens and hundreds of billions of dollars, be transformed into publicly owned and democratically controlled organizations. The investments of small- and medium-sized shareholders, many of whom have invested their savings for retirement, will be fully protected.
The executives who during the past decade plundered these corporations in the interests of personal enrichment should be legally compelled to pay restitution.
This crisis, like the 2008 crash, has exposed the myth of capitalist individualism. It has made clear that the banks and corporations cannot survive without massive state support.
In raising these demands, the Socialist Equality Party does not for a moment believe that the Trump administration, or, for that matter, one led by the Democrats, will take any measures that undermine the interests of the corporate-financial oligarchy.
That is why the program advanced by the Socialist Equality Party can be realized only through the industrial and political mobilization of the working class on the basis of a socialist program. All workers who recognize the need for this program should join the SEP.
The global pandemic has triggered a wave of socialist sentiment and militancy in significant sections of the working class. Last week, wildcat strikes forced the shutdown of the auto industry, and workers throughout the country have refused to work in unsafe conditions. These struggles, together with others around the world, are the objective foundation for a resolution to the crisis on a socialist basis, which would mean the investment of trillions of dollars to fight the pandemic and preserve human life through the expansion of the public health infrastructure.
If the capitalist class is unopposed in its efforts to make the working class bear the weight of the crisis, it will be at the cost of millions of lives. Mankind has reached a point where the most basic function of society–the preservation of human life–is incompatible with capitalism.
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