NOW MULTIPLY THESE COSTS BY 40 MILLION!
The NAS estimated the lifetime fiscal impact (taxes paid minus services used) of immigrants based on their educational attainment. Averaging those estimates and applying them to the education level of illegal immigrants shows a net fiscal drain of $65,292 per illegal — excluding any costs for their children.
Deportation vs. the Cost of Letting Illegal Immigrants Stay
The NAS estimated the lifetime fiscal impact (taxes paid minus services used) of immigrants based on their educational attainment. Averaging those estimates and applying them to the education level of illegal immigrants shows a net fiscal drain of $65,292 per illegal — excluding any costs for their children.
Deportation vs. the Cost of Letting Illegal Immigrants Stay
Steven A. Camarota is the director
of research at the Center for Immigration Studies.
The findings of this analysis show
that the average cost of a deportation is much smaller than the net fiscal
drain created by the average illegal immigrant. Immigration and Customs
Enforcement (ICE) reported the average deportation cost as $10,854 in FY 2016.
In FY 2012, ICE removed 71 percent more aliens with a similar budget, creating
an average inflation-adjusted cost of $5,915. This compares to an average
lifetime net fiscal drain (taxes paid minus services used) of $65,292 for each
illegal immigrant, excluding their descendants. This net figure is based on
fiscal estimates of immigrants by education level from the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NAS).1 The
total fiscal drain for the entire illegal population is estimated at $746.3
billion. Of course, simply because deportation is much less costly than
allowing illegal immigrants to stay does not settle the policy questions
surrounding illegal immigration as there are many factors to consider.
Deportation costs:
·
In
April of this year, ICE reported that the average cost of a deportation, also
referred to as a removal, was $10,854 in FY 2016, including apprehension,
detention, and processing.
·
Partly
due to policies adopted in the second term of the Obama administration, ICE
removed nearly 170,000 fewer aliens in 2016 than in 2012, even though it
actually spent 8 percent more in 2016 in inflation-adjusted dollars. The removal
of so many more illegal immigrants in FY 2012 means that the average cost per
removal in that year was $5,915, adjusted for inflation.
·
If
the average cost of a deportation was what it had been in FY 2012, then the
larger enforcement budget in FY 2016 would have allowed for 200,000 more
removals without spending additional money.
Costs of illegal immigrants:
·
Researchers
agree that illegal immigrants overwhelmingly have modest levels of education —
most have not completed high school or have only a high school education. There
is also agreement that immigrants with this level of education are a
significant net fiscal drain, creating more in costs for government than they
pay in taxes.
·
The
NAS estimated the lifetime fiscal impact (taxes paid minus services used) of
immigrants based on their educational attainment. Averaging those estimates and
applying them to the education level of illegal immigrants shows a net fiscal
drain of $65,292 per illegal — excluding any costs for their children.2
·
Based
on this estimate, there is a total lifetime fiscal drain of $746.3 billion.
This assumes 11.43 million illegal immigrants are in the country based on the
U.S. government's most recent estimate.
·
The
fiscal cost created by illegal immigrants of $746.3 billion compares to total a
cost of deportation of $124.1 billion, assuming a FY 2016 cost per deportation,
or $67.6 billion using FY 2012 deportation costs.
Important caveats about these
estimates:
·
The
NAS projects future fiscal impacts. A significant share of the current illegal
population are not recent arrivals, so some of the net burden they create has
already been incurred. We estimate that one-fifth ($13,058) of the average
fiscal deficit the current population of illegal immigrants creates has already
been incurred by taxpayers.
·
The
above cost estimates are only for the original illegal immigrant, and exclude
descendants. Using the NAS net cost estimates for the descendants adds $16,998
to the net fiscal drain.
·
ICE's
estimate for deportation costs does not include the costs of the immigration
courts run by the Department of Justice. Dividing the court's budget in 2016 by
the number deportations adds $1,749 to the average cost of a removal and $770
to the 2012 cost, in 2016 dollars.
·
To
create its long-term fiscal estimates, the NAS uses the concept of "net
present value" (NPV), which is commonly used by economists. This approach
has the effect of reducing the size of the net fiscal drain that unskilled
immigrants create because costs or benefits years from now are valued less
relative to more immediate costs. If the NPV concept is not used, the actual
net lifetime fiscal cost of illegal immigrants is likely $120,000 to $130,000
per illegal alien, or between $1.4 and $1.5 trillion for the entire illegal
alien population, excluding descendants.
Introduction
One argument made by opponents of
immigration enforcement is that it would be prohibitively expensive to deport
all illegal immigrants, so we have to amnesty them.3 Advocates
of enforcement argue this is a false choice as it is not necessary to deport
all or even most illegal immigrants. Rather, actually enforcing immigration
laws would cause many illegal immigrants to return to their home countries on
their own.4 It
would also discourage new illegal immigrants from coming. Nonetheless, the cost
of deportations vs. allowing illegal immigrants to stay is still an important
question.
To answer that question, this
analysis takes the cost that Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE) estimates
for the average deportation and compares it to the lifetime fiscal impact of
the average illegal immigrant. We estimate two different deportation costs
because ICE's immigration enforcement budgets have been relatively stable in
recent years, but the number of deportations has varied considerably, creating
very different average deportation costs. To calculate the net fiscal impact of
the average illegal immigrant, we take their likely education levels and apply
fiscal estimates (taxes paid minus costs) developed by the NAS for immigrants
by education level. Our findings show that deportation is much less costly than
allowing illegal immigrants to stay. Of course, fiscal impacts are not the only
consideration when weighting the various policy options.
Methodology
The Costs of Alien
Removal
ICE's Costs per Removal. Determining how much it costs
to deport, or more accurately formally remove, a non-citizen from the United
States is not as straightforward a question as it might seem because ICE has
multiple missions and legal responsibilities. Much of what ICE does has nothing
to do with immigration, such as countering the smuggling of drugs and
contraband across the border; stopping the illegal export of sensitive
technology; stopping weapons trafficking; preventing the production and sale of
child pornography via the internet; and intercepting stolen art and antiques.
In short, the budget of ICE is not a budget solely for immigration enforcement.
In April 2017, ICE estimated that
the average cost per deportation was $10,854 in FY 2016. This figure includes
"all costs necessary to identify, apprehend, detain, process through
immigration court, and remove an alien."5 Based
on this description, the estimate seems comprehensive, including the costs for
both Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO), which does most of the
immigration removal work, and the legal division, which provides the trial
attorneys who prosecute removal cases via the Office of the Professional Legal
Advisor (OPLA). These two entities comprise the overwhelming share of spending
on removals.
One complicating factor when
considering enforcement costs is the number of removals. ICE removed only
240,255 aliens in FY 2016 compared to 409,849 in FY 2012.6 However,
the ICE enforcement budget in 2016 was actually 7.62 percent larger than in
2012, adjusted for inflation. Yet they removed about 70.59 percent more people
in 2012 than in 2016.7 Based
on these numbers, the average cost of a deportation in 2012 was equal to only
54.5 percent of the per-removal cost in 2016.8 Using
ICE's per-removal cost figure for 2016 gives an inflation-adjusted cost per
removal in 2012 of $5,915 ($10,854 * 54.5 percent).9 If
costs were what they had been in 2012, adjusted for inflation, then about
200,000 more aliens could have been removed for the same amount of money in
2016.
The Immigration Courts. Based on the description
provided by ICE, the estimated removal costs do not include expenditures for
the Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR), which is part of the
Department of Justice.10 Though
it has a few other responsibilities, the overwhelming share of EOIR's workload
is for removals. In FY 2016, EOIR's budget was $420.3 million and there were
240,255 removals in that year, which would mean that EOIR's cost per removal
was $1,749.11 In
2012, EIOR's budget was $315,389,590 (in 2016 dollars). If we divide this by
the number of deportations in 2012, the per-capita court costs were $770.
Declining Number of Removals. It is certainly possible to
remove significantly more people with the current budget. The government
actually did so in 2012. If enforcement was stepped up it seems almost certain
that the lower cost per removal would continue, provided that policies continue
to encourage enforcement operations rather than discourage them. During the
second term of the Obama administration, policies prohibiting agents from
arresting aliens became increasingly stringent. A recent GAO report found that
the backlog of pending cases that are carried over from the prior year in immigration
court more than doubled between 2006 and 2015.12
In his analysis of the GAO report,
former immigration judge Andrew R. Arthur explains that several factors have
caused the pace of deportations to slow.13 In
addition to ICE arresting fewer aliens, the number of continuances granted by
the courts has ballooned and, as a consequence, the number of cases completed
by the courts has declined. One of the biggest reasons for the recent slowdown
in removals is the priorities of the Obama administration, including the
decision to admit so many unaccompanied minors at the border and the burden on
the courts resulting from the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)
program.
The Trump administration has
curtailed some of these policies. Moreover, the number of arrests by ICE has
increased substantially in the first few months of the new administration even
though the administration has yet to implement the president's directive to
increase the ERO agent corps.14 The
increase in arrests certainly demonstrates that the enforcement capacity of
ICE, given its current staffing levels, allows for a much greater level of
activity than was seen in Obama's second term. It remains to be seen if the
number of removals returns to the same level as 2012. However, if the costs of
deportation were what they had been in 2012 then the somewhat larger
enforcement budget in 2016 would have allowed for the removal of at least
200,000 more aliens with the same budget.
The Cost of Illegal
Immigration
Estimating the Costs of Illegal
Immigrants. There
is a good deal of agreement among researchers that the education level of
immigrants is a key factor in determining their net fiscal impact. As a recent
study by the NAS states, the education level of arriving immigrants is one of
the "important determinants" of their fiscal impact.15 This
finding is similar to a 1997 study by NAS that also examined the fiscal impact
of immigrants.16This
conclusion also is mirrored by a 2013 study from the Heritage Foundation.17 Referring
to the education level of household heads, Heritage concluded that,
"Well-educated households tend to be net tax contributors." But at
the same time, "Poorly educated households, whether immigrant or
U.S.-born, receive far more in government benefits than they pay in
taxes." My own research has come to the same conclusion.18 The
reason for this is straightforward: Those with modest levels of education tend
to earn low wages in the modern American economy, and as a result tend to make
low tax payments and often qualify for means-tested programs. The less-educated
are a net fiscal drain, on average, regardless of legal status or if they were
born in the United States or a foreign country.
Education Levels of Illegal
Immigrants. In
terms of the educational attainment of illegal immigrants, there is a good deal
of evidence that they have modest levels of education, much lower than
native-born Americans or legal immigrants. The Heritage Foundation study cited
above estimated that, on average, illegal immigrants have 10 years of
schooling. In an earlier analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies of
illegal immigrants based on 2011 Census Bureau data, we found that 54 percent
of adults have not completed high school, 25 percent have only a high school
degree, and 21 percent have education beyond high school.19 The
Pew Research Center estimated that 47 percent of all illegal immigrants have
not completed high school, 27 percent have only a high school education, 10
percent have some college, and 15 percent have a bachelor's or more.20
We have updated our prior estimate
from 2011 for adult illegal immigrants using a combined sample from the 2014
and 2015 Current Population Surveys. We find that adult illegal immigrants have
become somewhat more educated since 2011, but the vast majority still have very
modest levels of education. Our best estimate is that 49 percent have not
graduated high school, 28 percent have only a high school education, 11 percent
have some college, 9 percent a bachelor's degree, and 3 percent have a graduate
degree.
It is also worth noting that illegal
immigrants overall are significantly more educated than we reported in an
earlier analysis, which focused only on illegal border-crossers.21 Illegal
crossers tend to be the least-educated component of illegal immigration because
more educated foreign nationals wishing to come to the United States can often
qualify for temporary visas, which they can then overstay.22 The
focus of this analysis is the overall illegal immigrant population, which
includes both visa overstayers and illegal border-crossers. Even though illegal
immigrants overall are more educated than illegal border-crossers and illegal
immigrants have become more educated over time, as a group they remain much
less educated than the native-born or legal immigrants.
Fiscal Impact by Education Level. The 2016 NAS study mentioned
above projected the lifetime fiscal impact (taxes paid minus services used) of
immigrants by education. These estimates are expressed as a net present value
(NPV). This is a concept used in fiscal studies, and in other contexts, to
express the sum total of costs or benefits over long periods of time — in this
case a lifetime. NPV represents the fiscal balance (taxes paid minus costs) if
we had to spend the money today. Costs or benefits in the future are discounted
or reduced based on how long from now they occur. Later in this report, we
discuss in more detail the concept of net present value, both its usefulness
and it shortcomings.
The NAS study does not report
separate estimates for illegal and legal immigrants. Rather, it simply
estimates tax payments and expenditures on immigrants as they appear in Census
Bureau data, primarily the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic
Supplement. As a result, the estimates from the NAS are for both legal and
illegal immigrants by education. The NAS fiscal projections include eight
different scenarios, each with different assumptions about future spending, tax
rates, and the future flow of immigrants. It is not entirely clear what set of
fiscal assumptions are best, and the NAS study itself does not identify the one
best scenario. In Table 1 we simply take all 8 scenarios and average them
together by education level.
It should be pointed out that in
every scenario from the NAS, as shown in Table 1, immigrants without a high
school education are a significant net fiscal drain during their lifetimes.
That is, they pay less in taxes than they use in services. Those with only a
high school education are a net fiscal drain in seven of the eight scenarios.
In contrast, the most educated immigrants, those with at least a bachelor's
degree, are a net fiscal benefit in all eight scenarios. This is very important
because the vast majority of adult illegal immigrants in the country lack a
high school diploma or have only a high school education.
Calculating the Fiscal Impact of
Illegal Immigrants. The
first column of Table 2 reports the average fiscal effect of immigrants by
education level, taken directly from the bottom of Table 1. Column 2 shows the
education level of illegal immigrants in the country as discussed above. Column
3 multiplies the average cost by the share of illegal immigrants who fall into
that educational category and the bottom of column 3 adds up the costs to give
a weighted average. This means that, using the NAS average fiscal costs of
immigrants by education and assuming the educational distribution of illegal
immigrants shown in the table, the average lifetime fiscal drain is $70,788 per
immigrant. However, for reasons discussed below we think this figure overstates
the net fiscal costs.
As already mentioned, the NAS fiscal
analysis is for immigrants overall — both legal and illegal. Although illegal
immigrants do access some welfare programs and create other significant costs,
it should still be the case that less-educated illegal immigrants create
smaller net fiscal costs than less-educated legal immigrants. Unfortunately,
the NAS study has very little discussion of how legal and illegal immigrants
differ in their fiscal impact. The study does state on page 280 that,
"unauthorized immigrants as a group may have a more
positive fiscal impact than authorized immigrants." (Emphasis added.) We
agree with their tentative conclusion and so we adjust downward the fiscal
drain created by less-educated illegal immigrants relative to illegal
immigrants.
To estimate the adjustment factor,
we use the Heritage Foundation study mentioned above. That study has estimates
for immigrants by education and legal status.23 Adjusting
has the effect of reducing the fiscal costs for less-educated illegal
immigrants, but it also reduces the fiscal benefits for immigrants who are more
educated.24 Since
highly educated illegal immigrants make up only a small share of all illegal
immigrants, adjusting downward their positive fiscal impact has only a modest
impact on the fiscal estimates. The right lower corner of Table 2 shows that
the fiscal cost of an illegal immigrant once we include the adjustment is
$62,582. Adjusting reduces the fiscal cost by $8,205. There is also the issue
of inflation. The NAS fiscal estimates are reported in 2012 dollars. If we
convert them to 2016 dollars so that they match the ICE 2016 deportation cost
estimate, then the net lifetime fiscal drain of illegal immigrants would be $
$65,292.
One way to think about the above
estimates is that for every million illegal immigrants in the country there is
a lifetime fiscal drain of $65.3 billion on public coffers. If we assume there
are 11.43 million illegal immigrants in the country, then the total fiscal
costs they create during their lifetimes using the net present value concept is
$746.3 billion.25 In
short, the savings associated with removing or causing even a modest fraction
of the 11 to 12 million illegal immigrants in the country to return home would
be significant.
Costs Already Borne. The NAS fiscal estimates are
for newly arrived immigrants during their lifetimes projected forward. Since
this analysis is concerned with the existing population of illegal immigrants,
some share of the net fiscal costs they create has already been incurred. Based
on the age of the illegal population and their time already in the United
States, we estimate that one-fifth of their costs have already been incurred.
If correct, the remaining fiscal costs of illegal immigrants on average are
$52,234 ($65,292 * .80).26While
the full cost of illegal immigrants is important, when considering deportation
costs relative to fiscal costs, the remaining fiscal impact of allowing illegal
immigrants to remain is also an important comparison.
Do Net Present Values Make Sense? The concept of net present
value employed by the NAS study reduces or "discounts" costs or
benefits in the future based on how long in the future they take place. Page
325 of the NAS study states that they used a 3 percent annual discount rate,
which is common in this kind of analysis. So, for example, the fiscal balance
(whether a net drain or benefit) an immigrant creates two years after arrival
is reduced by about 6 percent. After 10 years, the amount is reduced by about
26 percent and at 20 years the discount is 45 percent. This means events that
occur further in the future have a smaller impact on the total cost or benefit.
Comparing the net present value fiscal costs illegal immigrants create to the
costs of removal can be seen as reasonable because a removal has to be paid for
up front while the fiscal drain accrues over time. By using a NPV it makes the
costs of removal comparable to the lifetime costs illegal immigrants create.
The primary disadvantage of using
NPV for fiscal estimates is that it masks the actual size of future outlays
created by less-educated illegal immigrants. For example, using a 3 percent
annual discount rate, as the NAS study does, means that if an illegal immigrant
creates a net fiscal burden of $10,000 in the 23rd year of the projection, only
about half of this amount will be added to the total NPV. Without discounting,
the actual outlays associated with illegal immigrants are much larger. If the
NPV concept is not used, the actual net lifetime fiscal cost of illegal
immigrants is likely $120,000 to $130,000 per illegal alien, or between $1.4
and $1.5 trillion for the entire illegal population, again assuming 11.43
million illegal immigrants are in the country.
Making Different
Assumptions
Including Descendants. There are four key variables
in the above calculations that potentially impact the results. The first is
whether to include the children of illegal immigrants. Many of the descendants
of less-educated immigrants struggle, often earning low wages themselves and
making use of welfare programs and other public services. If we use the NAS
study's estimates that include the progeny of immigrants, it adds $16,998 (in
2016 dollars) to the net fiscal drain, raising the total for the average
illegal immigrant to $82,290. If we assume 11.43 million illegal immigrants are
in the country, then the total cost of illegal immigrants and their descendants
would be $940.6 billion. If the concept of net present value is not used, then
the costs for illegal immigrants and their children would approach $2 trillion.
But the tax payments and costs created by the descendants of immigrants in the
NAS study go out 75 years. Projections of this length involve significant
uncertainty.
Impact of Different Fiscal
Assumptions. The
second question is which fiscal scenario from the NAS study to use. (All of the
scenarios are shown in Table 1 of this report.) Scenario 1 makes assumptions
that are most favorable to the fiscal impact of immigrants. If we use only this
scenario, then the net fiscal costs created by the average illegal immigrant
drop significantly, to $8,018 in 2016 dollars. This is somewhat less than
deportation costs in 2016 and somewhat more than the cost in 2012. But this
scenario assumes federal spending will not conform to historical patterns and,
instead, that spending will be lower and tax payments higher in the future.
Further, this scenario assumes away costs for public goods, interest payments on
the national debt, and other expenses. All of this seems extremely optimistic.
On the other hand, scenario 8, which makes the most pessimistic assumptions
about the future, shows a net fiscal impact for each illegal immigrant of
$118,091 in 2016 dollars. Averaging out all the scenarios, as we do, reduces
the impact of extreme assumptions and provides a realistic assessment of the
likely future fiscal impact of illegal immigrants. The fiscal drain varies
significantly depending on which scenario is used, but seven out of eight
scenarios show a large negative lifetime fiscal impact for the average illegal
immigrant.
Illegal Immigrant Education Level. The third key assumption in
our estimates is the education level of illegal immigrants. As already
discussed, there is widespread agreement that illegal immigrants are a
relatively unskilled population. If we assume that illegal immigrants are as
educated as Pew estimated, the average fiscal cost would still be very large —
$60,280 in 2016 dollars. This is very similar to our estimate of $65,295.
Again, Pew's figures show that about three-quarters of illegal immigrants have
less than a high school education or only a high school education, and this
makes them a large fiscal drain.
Legal vs. Illegal Immigrants. Finally, there is the question
of the difference between the net fiscal impact of all immigrants (legal and
illegal) by education level, which is what the NAS estimated, and the fiscal
impact of illegal border-crossers. In Table 2 we adjust the fiscal impact of
illegal immigrants significantly, reducing the costs of illegal immigrants
relative to immigrants of the same education by almost 12 percent, or $8,205.
If we instead used a larger discount of 50 percent for all educational
categories, the net fiscal costs of illegal immigrants would still be $36,926
in 2016 dollars. Under a 50 percent reduction, every one million illegal
immigrants would still create a net fiscal drain of almost $37 billion during
their lifetimes.
It is important to keep in mind
that, mathematically, any reduction in costs for less-educated illegal immigrants
means that the costs of less-educated legal immigrants must be
correspondingly higher so that they average out to the NAS estimates for all
immigrants. Immigrants in the Census data used by the NAS can only be either
legal or illegal. So, for example, we estimate that 47 percent of all
immigrants in the United States who lack a high school education are in the
country illegally and 53 percent are legal immigrants. The average cost estimate
from the NAS study for immigrants with this education level (legal and illegal)
is $173,375, as shown in Table 1. Our estimation method, as explained above,
reduces this amount by multiplying it by 67.6 percent (a 32.4 percent
reduction). As a result, illegal immigrants with this education level create a
lifetime fiscal drain of $117,236. This means that legal immigrants who have
not graduated high school must create a drain of $223,159 for this to average
out to the drain of $173,375 from the NAS study. If we increased the discount
for illegal immigrants, thereby lowering their costs, and multiply the NAS
estimate by, say, 50 percent, then the costs for illegal immigrants without a
high school education would be $86,688, a good deal less than we report. But,
the cost for legal immigrants without a high school education
would have to grow to $250,249 so that it again averages out to the overall NAS
estimate of $173,375 for all immigrants, legal and illegal, with this level of
education. This drain for the least-educated legal immigrants seems implausibly
large.
It is worth noting that because
less-educated legal immigrants create a larger fiscal deficit than
less-educated illegal immigrants, amnesty (legalization) for illegal immigrants
would almost certainly increase the net fiscal costs to taxpayers, as illegal
immigrants would become costly legal immigrants. Of course, this is only true
for the less-educated illegal immigrants. The modest share of illegal
immigrants who are well educated would be a significant fiscal benefit if
legalized.
Conclusion
Overall, different assumptions can
affect the results. But because the overwhelming share of illegal immigrants
residing in the country have not completed high school or have only a high
school education, it would require highly implausible assumptions to avoid a
substantial net fiscal drain from this population. In short, illegal immigrants
are a large net fiscal drain because of their education levels and this fact
drives the results. Deportation, on the other hand, is not that costly relative
to the fiscal costs illegal immigrants create. Of course, there are many other
factors to consider when deciding on the best course of action than just the
fiscal balance between removal and allowing illegal immigrants to remain. That
said, deporting a large share of illegal immigrants can be justified from a
fiscal point of view.
End
Notes
1 Francine
D. Blau and Christopher Mackie, eds., The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration,
Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, September 22, 2016, p. 286.
2 Please
see the methodology section of this report for an explanation of how we adjust
downward the NAS fiscal cost estimates, which are for both legal and illegal
immigrants, to reflect the costs for illegal immigrants only.
3 Philip
E. Wolgin, "What Would It Cost to Deport
11.3 Million Unauthorized Immigrants?", Center for American
Progress, August 2015.
4 William
W. Chip "Mass Deportations vs. Mass
Legalization: A False Choice", Center for Immigration Studies,
March 2017.
5 Rafael
Carranza, "How much does it cost to
deport someone?", USA TODAY, April 28, 2017.
6 "FY 2016 ICE Immigration Removals",
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, undated.
7 The
2016 ICE budget, including ERO and OPLA, can be found in this document on
page 87. Their combined budgets in 2016 were $3,498,536,000. The FY 2012 budget
can be found here. In FY 2012, the
combined costs for these entities were $3,115,900,000, or $3,250,818,470
adjusted to 2016 dollars. Using the combined ERO and OPLA budgets and dividing
by the number of deportations would produce a higher per-removal estimate than
ICE reported to USAToday. However, ICE actually has detailed budget
and operations figures that allow them to add up only removal costs excluding
expenditures not related to deportation. This allows them to calculate the
actual cost of the average deportation.
8 Calculating
this percentage can be done simply by multiplying 1/1.7059 by 1/1.0762.
9 The
most recent estimate from the U.S. government is that there are 11.43 million
illegal immigrants in the country. Multiplying this figure by the deportation
costs would create a total cost for deporting all illegal immigrants of $124.1
billion assuming a FY 2016 cost per deportation, or $67.6 billion using FY 2012
deportation costs. See Bryan Baker and Nancy Rytia, "Estimates of the Unauthorized
Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012",
Department of Homeland Security, March 2013.
10 In
addition to the courts themselves, EOIR also consists of the Board of
Immigration Appeals (BIA), an appellate tribunal that reviews orders of
removal, denials of relief from removal, and denial of certain immigration
benefits applications outside the arena of the deportation process.
11 "FY 2016 ICE Immigration Removals",
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, undated.
12 "Immigration Courts: Actions Needed to Reduce Case
Backlog and Address Long-Standing Management and Operational Challenges Report
to Congressional Requesters", Report GAO-17-438, Government
Accountability Office, June 2017.
13 Andrew
R. Arthur, "The Massive Increase in the
Immigration Court Backlog, Its Causes, and Solutions", Center
for Immigration Studies, July 2017.
14 "ICE ERO Immigration Arrests Climb Nearly 40%",
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, May 2017.
15 Francine
D. Blau and Christopher Mackie, eds., The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration,
Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press, September 22, 2016, p. 286.
16 James
P. Smith and Barry Edmonston, The New Americans: Economic,
Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration,Washington, D.C.:
The National Academies Press, 1997.
17 Robert
Rector and Jason Richwine, "The Fiscal Cost of Unlawful Immigrants and Amnesty
to the U.S. Taxpayer", Heritage Foundation, May 6, 2013, p. v.
18 Steven
A. Camarota, "The High Cost of Cheap Labor:
Illegal Immigration and the Federal Budget", Center for
Immigration Studies, August 2004.
19 Steven
A. Camarota, "Immigrants in the United
States, 2010, A Profile of America's Foreign-Born Population",
Center for Immigration Studies, 2012, p. 69.
20 Jeffrey
S. Passel and D'Vera Cohn, "A Portrait of Unauthorized Immigrants in the United
States", Pew Hispanic Center, April 14, 2009, Figure 16, p. 11.
21 Steven
A. Camarota, "The Cost of a Border Wall vs.
the Cost of Illegal Immigration", Center for Immigration
Studies, February 2017.
22 In
contrast, a person with few years of schooling, a low-paying job, and no
property in his or her home country is not likely to qualify for a tourist visa
or other temporary visitor visa. Such persons would be seen as "intending
immigrants", the terminology of the U.S. consular service; and the visa
would be denied. As a result, the overall illegal immigrant population, which
includes large numbers of overstayers, is significantly more educated than we
previously estimated for new illegal new border-crossers.
23 The
Heritage Foundation reports the average fiscal impact for illegal immigrant and
legal immigrant households by education level. They also report the number of
households by education and legal status. With this information it is a
relatively straightforward matter to calculate the average fiscal impact of all
immigrant households (legal and illegal) by education. We then divide this
amount by the estimated costs for illegal households by education to create an
adjustment factor. So, for example, among illegal high school dropout
households, the net fiscal impact is -$20,485 a year, and for households headed
by a legal immigrant who is a dropout, the drain is a good deal more: -$36,993.
In Heritage's estimate, illegal immigrants create a net fiscal cost that is
about 55 percent that of the burden created by households headed by high school
dropout legal immigrants. But this is not the proper comparison, as the NAS
estimates are for all immigrants, not just legal immigrants. Given the number
of households Heritage reports, the fiscal impact for all immigrant households
(legal and illegal) headed by a dropout must be -$30,294. As this equals .676
of the estimated costs of illegal dropout households reported in the Heritage
study, this becomes the adjustment factor. We do the same for the other
educational categories. As the Heritage study does not show separate estimates
for those with only a bachelor's degree and those with a graduate education, we
use the same adjustment factor for both. Taken together, this approach reduces
the net fiscal drain of illegal immigrants by almost 12 percent.
24 This
reflects the fact that while higher-skilled illegal immigrants are assumed to
create a fiscal surplus, they often are unable to find work commensurate with
their education level because of their legal status and so have to work at
lower-paying jobs. They are also more likely to be paid "under the
table" by their employers, reducing their tax contributions relative to
their legal counterparts. As a result, they do not have as large a positive
impact on public coffers as high-skilled legal immigrants.
25 The
most recent government estimate of the illegal immigrant population is 11.43
million. See Bryan Baker and Nancy Rytia, "Estimates of the Unauthorized
Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012",
Department of Homeland Security, March 2013.
26 The
biggest limitation of this approach is that the NAS report does not include
detailed fiscal balances by years in the United States and education making it
difficult to know what share of the costs has already been incurred. Table 8-11
on page 338 of the study reports mortality and emigration assumptions. We do
not change these.
L.A.County's
$48 (DATED) Million Monthly Anchor Baby Tab
Last
Updated: Wed, 08/12/2009
Taxpayers
in the nation’s most populous county dished out nearly $50 million in a single
month to cover only the welfare costs of illegal immigrants, representing a
whopping $10 million increase over the same one-month period two years ago.
In
June 2009 alone Los Angeles County spent $48 million ($26 million in food
stamps and $22 million in welfare) to provide just two of numerous free public
services to the children of illegal aliens, which will translate into an annual
tab of nearly $600 million for the cash-strapped county.
The
figure doesn’t even include the exorbitant cost of educating, medically
treating or incarcerating illegal aliens in the sprawling county of about 10
million residents. Los Angeles County annually spends more than $1 billion for those
combined services, including $400 million for healthcare and $350 million for
public safety.
The
recent single-month welfare figure was obtained from the county’s Department of
Social Services and made public by a county supervisor (Michael Antonovich) who
assures illegal immigration continues to have a “catastrophic impact on Los
Angeles County taxpayers.” The veteran lawmaker points out that 24% of the
county’s total allotment of welfare and food stamp benefits goes directly to
the children of illegal aliens—known as anchor babies—born in the United
States.
A
former fifth-grade history teacher who has served on the county’s board for
nearly three decades, Antonovich has repeatedly come under fire for publicizing
statistics that confirm the devastation illegal immigration has had on the
region. Antonovich represents a portion of the county that is roughly twice the
size of Rhode Island and has about 2 million residents.
Numerous
other reports have documented the enormous cost of illegal immigration on a
national level. Just last year a renowned economist, who has thoroughly
researched the impact of illegal immigration, published a book breaking down
the country’s $346 billion annual cost to educate, jail, medically treat and
incarcerate illegal aliens throughout the U.S.
WELFARE
COSTS FOR CHILDREN OF ILLEGAL ALIENS IN L.A. COUNTY OVER $48 MILLION IN JUNE
August
11, 2009—Figures from the Department of Public Social Services show that
children of illegal aliens in Los Angeles County collected nearly $22 million
in welfare and over $26 million in food stamps in June, announced Los Angeles
County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich.
Projected over a 12 month period –
this would exceed $575 (THE FIGURES ARE NOW IN EXCESS OF A BILLION PER YEAR) million dollars.
Annually
the cost of illegal immigration to Los Angeles County taxpayers exceeds over $1
billion dollars, which includes $350 million for public safety, $400 million
for healthcare, and $500 million in welfare and food stamps allocations.
Twenty-four percent of the County’s total allotment of welfare and food stamp
benefits goes directly to the children of illegal aliens born in the United
States.
“Illegal
immigration continues to have a catastrophic impact on Los Angeles County
taxpayers,” said Antonovich. “The total cost for illegal immigrants to County taxpayers
exceeds $1 billion a year – not including the millions of dollars for
education.”
County
Spends $600 Mil On Welfare For Illegal Immigrants
Last
Updated: Thu, 03/11/2010 - 3:14pm
For
the second consecutive year taxpayers in a single U.S. county will dish out
more than half a billion dollars just to cover the welfare and food-stamp costs
of illegal immigrants.
Los
Angeles County, the nation’s most populous, may be in the midst of a dire
financial crisis but somehow there are plenty of funds for illegal aliens. In
January alone, anchor babies born to the county’s illegal immigrants collected
more than $50 million in welfare benefits. At that rate the cash-strapped
county will pay around $600 million this year to provide illegal aliens’
offspring with food stamps and other welfare perks.
THE
EXORBITANT FIGURE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE ENORMOUS COST OF EDUCATING, MEDICALLY
TREATING, OR INCARCERATING ILLEGALS ALIENS. THIS COSTS THE COUNTY AN ADDITIONAL
ONE BILLION DOLLARS.
The
exorbitant figure, revealed this week by a county supervisor, doesn’t even
include the enormous cost of educating, medically treating or incarcerating
illegal aliens in the sprawling county of about 10 million residents. Los
Angeles County annually spends more than $1 billion for those combined
services, including $500 million for healthcare and $350 million for public
safety.
About
a quarter of the county’s welfare and food stamp issuances go to parents who
reside in the United States illegally and collect benefits for their anchor
babies, according to the figures from the county’s Department of Social
Services. In 2009 the tab ran $570 million and this year’s figure is expected
to increase by several million dollars.
Illegal
immigration continues to have a “catastrophic impact on Los Angeles County
taxpayers,” the veteran county supervisor (Michael Antonovich) who revealed the
information has said. The former fifth-grade history teacher has repeatedly
come under fire from his liberal counterparts for publicizing statistics that
confirm the devastation illegal immigration has had on the region. Antonovich,
who has served on the board for nearly three decades, represents a portion of
the county that is roughly twice the size of Rhode Island and has about 2
million residents.
His
district is simply a snippet of a larger crisis. Nationwide, Americans pay
around $22 billion annually to provide illegal immigrants with welfare benefits
that include food assistance programs such as free school lunches in public
schools, food stamps and a nutritional program (known as WIC) for low-income
women and their children. Tens of billions more are spent on other social
services, medical care, public education and legal costs such as incarceration
and public defenders.
Anchor
Baby Power
La
Voz de Aztlan has produced a video in honor of the millions of babies that have
been born as US citizens to Mexican undocumented parents. These babies are
destined to transform America. The nativist CNN reporter Lou Dobbs estimates
that there are over 200,000 "Anchor Babies" born every year whereas
George Putnam, a radio reporter, says the figure is closer to 300,000. La Voz
de Aztlan believes that the number is approximately 500,000 "Anchor
Babies" born every year.
The
video below depicts the many faces of the "Anchor Baby Generation".
The video includes a fascinating segment showing a group of elementary school
children in Santa Ana, California confronting the Minutemen vigilantes. The
video ends with a now famous statement by Professor Jose Angel Gutierrez of the
University of Texas at Austin.
CALIFORNIA MOVES CLOSER TO FINAL
ANNEXATION BY MEXICO
DE FACTO CITIZENSHIP PER LA
RAZA:
NO TEST, NO BACKGROUND CHECKS
ON CRIMINALITY, NO BACK TAXES, NO
FINES.... JUST JUMP STRAIGHT TO
VOTING BOOTHS! AND VOTE OFTEN!!!
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