Pedestrians wearing face masks ride an escalator near an overpass with an electronic board showing the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, following an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the country, at Lujiazui financial district, in Shanghai, China, on March 13, 2020. (Aly Song/Reuters)
China’s 2020 GDP Growth Set to Sink to 44-Year Low as CCP Virus Cripples Economy
BEIJING—China’s economic growth is set to stumble to its slowest annual pace in nearly half a century, as the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus health crisis shutters businesses and brings the global economy to a standstill, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.
China’s leaders have pledged to take more steps to combat the impact from the pandemic that looks likely to delay a recovery in the CCP virus-ravaged economy, as mounting job losses pose a threat to social stability.
Growth in the world’s second-biggest economy for 2020 was forecast at 2.5 percent, according to the median of 62 analysts surveyed by Reuters, which would mark the weakest clip since 1976, the final year of the decade-long Cultural Revolution that wrecked the economy.
That is a sharp easing from a 6.1 percent gain in 2019, and is below the 5.4 percent growth forecast in the March poll.
The survey also predicted China’s economy in the first quarter will contract by 6.5 percent year-on-year, for the first time since at least 1992 when the country first started issuing quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) data.
It also marks a reversal from 3.5 percent growth forecast in the last survey done in the previous month. China will release its first-quarter GDP data on April 17.
The projected 2020 growth would be weaker than the 3.9 percent rate in 1990, when the economy was hit hard after the Tiananmen crackdown, but still outperform a 1.6 percent contraction in 1976.
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CCP VIRUS SPECIAL COVERAGE
The forecasts highlighted the challenges faced by the Asia’s engine of growth given an immediate recovery looked some way off as the global pandemic hits exports.
Early in the outbreak, Beijing imposed draconian travel restrictions and factory suspensions to curb the spread of the disease, but at a heavy price.
In February, Beijing encouraged companies to resume operations as it grew concerned about an economic slowdown. But analysts say the pace of recovery in the coming months will be heavily constrained by external headwinds.
The CCP virus has spread rapidly around the world, prompting unprecedented shutdowns in many countries, which has wreaked havoc along global supply chains and severely hurt overseas demand, raising the risk of a steep global recession this year.
“China is still faced with two dire challenges: nosediving external demand due to the pandemic, and the rising threat of a second wave of the virus,” said economists with Nomura, adding that the hope of a quick recovery is dimming.
The slump in China’s exports and imports eased in March, customs data showed on Tuesday, but analysts say the overall outlook remains grim as the pandemic has brought business activity in its major trading partners to a standstill.
The health crisis has dealt a particularly heavy blow to the country’s private sector, which is the most productive part of the economy and a key source of employment.
The small and privately-owned firms are facing a severe cash crunch to tide over a prolonged downturn, with many laying off workers or shutting down businesses.
Analysts expect nearly 30 million job losses this year due to stuttering work resumptions and plunging global demand, outpacing the 20-plus million layoffs during the 2008-09 financial crisis.
“Lingering fear of the virus and uncertainty over job losses mean people are remaining cautious. We expect household consumption to be negatively affected for many months to come and see only a gradual sequential recovery from Q2 onwards,” said Louis Kuijs, economist at Oxford Economics.
More Stimulus Steps in Pipeline
The negative growth shock has already prompted a raft of monetary policy response from the central bank, but so far its easing has been more measured than during the global financial crisis.
Sources told Reuters the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will ramp up its policy easing to support the economy but will not follow the U.S. Federal Reserve’s steep rate cuts or quantitative easing moves, mindful of debt and property market risks.
Analysts expect the PBOC to deliver another 100 basis points (bps) in banks’ reserve retirement ratios (RRR), and lower the one-year LPR by 35 bps to 3.70 percent by the end of 2020.
The poll also predicted the benchmark deposit rate to be cut to 1.25 percent from its current level of 1.50 percent. The PBOC has kept the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 1.5 percent since October 2015.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) in 2020 will likely rise 3.3 percent from the previous year, quickening from a 2.9 percent rise in 2019, according to the poll.
By Lusha Zhang and Kevin Yao. Epoch Times staff contributed to this report.
By James Fulford
VDare.com Blog
. . .
https://vdare.com/posts/dr-norm-matloff-on-covid-19-silicon-valley-and-the-chinese-connection-to-coronavirus-infection
Senator
Who Employed Chinese Spy Endorses Joe Biden for President
A high-profile U.S. senator with professional
and personal ties to China — including once employing one of its spies — is
backing former Vice President Joe Biden amid mounting questions over his son’s
business dealings with the communist regime.
Silicon Valley, and the Chinese Connection to
Coronavirus Infection
By James Fulford
VDare.com Blog
. . .
https://vdare.com/posts/dr-norm-matloff-on-covid-19-silicon-valley-and-the-chinese-connection-to-coronavirus-infection
After Feinstein was elected to the
Senate in 1992, Blum continued profiting off their ties to China. A the same
time, the freshman lawmaker was pitching herself as a “China hand” to
colleagues, even once claiming “that in my
last life maybe I was Chinese.” HARIS ALIC
FEINSTEIN HAS SPENT HER POLITICAL LIFE STALKING THE HALLS OF
CONGRESS SNIFFING OUT DEALS THAT PUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS IN HER POCKETS.
SHE HAS AVOIDED PROSECUTION BY VOTING AGAINST ANY ETHICS BILLS
AND HER HUSBAND, RICHARD BLUM'S HANDING OUT "CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION"
BRIBES TO EVERY DEMOCRAT OUT THERE!
IN THE November 2006 election, the voters demanded congressional
ethics reform. And so, the newly appointed chairman of the Senate Rules
Committee, Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is now duly in charge of regulating the
ethical behavior of her colleagues. But for many years, Feinstein has been
beset by her own ethical conflict of interest, say congressional ethics
experts.
“All in all, it was an incredible
victory for the Chinese government. Feinstein has done more for Red China than
other any serving U.S. politician. “ Trevor Loudon
“Our
entire crony capitalist system, Democrat and Republican alike, has become
a kleptocracy approaching par with third-world hell-holes. This
is the way a great country is raided by its elite.” ---- Karen
McQuillan AMERICAN THINKER.com
Senator
Who Employed Chinese Spy Endorses Joe Biden for President
A high-profile U.S. senator with professional
and personal ties to China — including once employing one of its spies — is
backing former Vice President Joe Biden amid mounting questions over his son’s
business dealings with the communist regime.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), a
former chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, announced her
endorsement of the former vice president on Tuesday, claiming to have
witnessed Biden’s “fortitude” and leadership during their overlapping tenures
in Congress.
I’ve worked closely with Vice
President Biden and I’ve seen firsthand his legislative ability, his statesmanship,
and most importantly his moral fortitude (NO, IT’S NOT A JOKE, BUT THEN
FEINSTEIN IS THE MOST SELF-SERVING CORRUPT POL IN U.S. HISTORY). During his
time in Congress and in the White House, Joe Biden has been a tireless fighter
for hard working (ILLEGALS) MEXICAN families.
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