Saudi Arabia and Russia reach deal to end oil price war after pressure from Trump
Saudi Arabia and Russia ended their price war and are poised to deliver the oil production cut President Trump has been demanding in order to raise historically low prices that have damaged the U.S. shale industry.
Saudi-led OPEC and its allies agreed in principle to a deal during an unprecedented emergency remote video meeting Thursday to cut production by 10 million barrels per day beginning in May.
The agreement for that level of cuts would last for two months, with reductions subsequently leveling off through April 2022 depending on progress in containing the coronavirus outbreak. Trump spoke Thursday night with Russian President Vladimir Putin and King Salman of Saudi Arabia to discuss finalizing the oil production cut deal.
After the call, Trump said at his daily press conference that "they are getting close to a deal."
"We will soon find out," Trump said.
In a statement late Thursday night, OPEC said the deal is conditional on the consent of Mexico, the only participating country that did not immediately agree to the terms of the deal.
Trump has been pushing Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output in the hopes that less crude on the market will raise oil prices, which have fallen by two-thirds since the start of the year and reached a 18-year low last month.
Most of that has been caused by the coronavirus reducing travel and, accordingly, demand for oil and fuels, but Saudi Arabia also pushed prices lower by flooding the market with crude oil after Russia last month unexpectedly broke with a multi-year pact to cut output.
American Petroleum Institute, the largest U.S. oil industry lobbying group, welcomed Saudi Arabia and Russia coming back together to cut supply, but warned it’s not a cure-all because the lack of demand is a worse problem for producers.
"While this move will help stabilize world oil markets, significant challenges remain throughout the supply chain since current market disruptions are driven largely by this historic drop in demand as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic,” API CEO Mike Sommers said in a statement.
A cut of 10 million barrels per day (representing about 10% of the world’s normal daily consumption) would barely reduce the glut of oil created by the slowdown of the global economy, with lost demand projected to reach as high as 35 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two largest oil producers outside the United States, have hoped for the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers to contribute to the production cut. But the Trump administration has resisted offering a formal commitment, arguing that the U.S. free market system does not allow for a government intervention, and that private companies are already cutting production because prices are so low and they are running out of space to store unused oil.
“Look, we already cut,” Trump said during Wednesday night’s press briefing. “You know, we're, like, very market-oriented.”
The Trump administration is participating in a separate remote meeting of G-20 energy ministers on Friday, where additional cuts could be discussed.
The Energy Information Administration projected this week that U.S. crude oil production will fall to just over 11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2020, a 1.8 million barrels per day, or almost 15%, reduction compared to the same period last year.
The Trump administration, along with industry and GOP allies, have used that data to show the U.S. doesn’t need to do anything more.
Republicans in Congress, who have accused Saudi Arabia and Russia of trying to damage the U.S. shale industry, encouraged the two countries to fulfill their new agreement.
Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, who has pushed Trump to impose tariffs on imported oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia, called the agreement a “step in the right direction,” but warned he would be “watching closely to ensure follow-through by the parties.”
“If not, the United States will be further empowered to take immediate action,” Cramer said.
Don't read too much into Russian air antics near Alaska
On Wednesday, the U.S. Air Force intercepted two Russian Navy Ilyushin Il-38 aircraft flying 50 miles off the Alaskan coast. But don't be alarmed — this is standard fare Russian chicanery.
First off, the aircraft in question weren't a threat to Alaska. Il-38s are maritime patrol aircraft responsible for identifying ships and submarines, not striking mainland targets. And while these Il-38s were almost certainly the more advanced Il-38N variants of the airframe, they do not pose a significant threat to American security. They don't even have air-to-air capabilities. The Il-38s speed performance and radar signatures also significantly undermine their surprise and strike capabilities. And considering that USAF 3rd Wing F-22s were deployed to intercept the Il-38s, the question of relative threat is not debatable here. The equation is unbalanced heavily in America's favor, as it is even with Russian air superiority fighters.
The Russians know this. And they know that we know this. So, what was this little excursion about?
Well, this isn't about Vladimir Putin preparing to start a war. Instead, it's about Russia trying to get under American skin and identify any weaknesses that offer Russian opportunities. This carries special significance to the Russians in the Arctic Circle area north of Alaska, which holds vast energy reserves the Russians wish to stake claim over.
Moreover, as the coronavirus imposes readiness costs on elements of the U.S. military, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, Russia wants to see if the Pentagon has reduced its readiness in other critical priority areas. In this case, the air defense of the United States or Canada. As the commander of NORAD simply observed to Fox News, "They wanted to see if we are able to react."
Finally, this is about playing to the domestic base. Putin views his ability to broadcast strength as a critical ingredient of his continued power. And whenever Putin can get his military close up to the U.S. military, his media propagandists are happy to advertise it.
In short, this is just another day in Alaskan airspace.
No comments:
Post a Comment