Trump cranks up populism as virus threatens reelection
President Trump is revving up his populist message, appealing to his base on issues such as immigration, abusive behavior by large corporations, and coronavirus-related economic lockdowns that have decimated small businesses and workers.
Trump suspended some categories of legal immigration, shamed big businesses and well-endowed universities for taking federal aid, and encouraged protests against Democratic governors who have supported extended shutdowns of the economy. This populist offensive, though not risk-free, could help shield the president from political fallout generated by the coronavirus and a pandemic-induced recession that has left millions unemployed by motivating grassroots Republicans to stick with him in November.
“Trump's populist rhetoric and action during the pandemic is helping to keep some parts of his coalition behind him,” said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a Washington think tank. “While most Trump voters support the lockdowns, a significant minority, between one-quarter and one-third, would prefer a faster reopening. His populist moves keep them in his camp, even while he pursues policies that generally support continued lockdowns.”
More than 26 million people in the United States have lost their jobs since mid-March, when Trump led the charge to shutter major sectors of the American economy through at least late April as part of an aggressive national strategy to stop the spread of the coronavirus. At one point, the president went so far as to consider issuing national shelter-in-place orders and enforcing a regional quarantine of metropolitan New York City, although he decided against the actions.
Then, with frustration over the lockdowns mounting in conservative circles, Trump tweeted “liberate” in support of protests against stringent social distancing mandates implemented by Democratic governors in battleground states critical to his reelection prospects. The peaceful protests on the grounds of state capitol buildings have been filled mostly with grassroots Republicans.
Next came the president’s executive order limiting legal immigration and sharp comments demanding that unnamed corporations and Harvard University return coronavirus relief funds obtained from a massive federal rescue package.
Trump’s move to infuse his management of the pandemic with sometimes polarizing populist rhetoric is a familiar refrain. The message dominated his 2016 campaign and has prevailed through his presidency. Some Republican insiders believe it could pay dividends this fall against presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
“The Trump brand is a combat brand, and he understands that,” said Brad Todd, a GOP strategist and co-author, along with Washington Examiner columnist Salena Zito, of The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics, a book about the coalition of voters that elected Trump in 2016. “People did not pick him to get along with anyone.”
But there is a downside, and it could cost Trump his reelection.
His approach is alienating suburban voters, especially women, and could turn persuadable independent voters into Joe Biden supporters. Polling has shown this is a vulnerability for the president. In two Fox News polls conducted Saturday through Tuesday, Biden led the president among female voters by a whopping 20 percentage points, 56% to 36%, in Michigan, and by 21 points in Pennsylvania, 56% to 35%.
Still, some Democrats agree with their Republican counterparts on the efficacy of Trump's populist message despite mocking the president as a phony populist who threatens corporations even as he negotiates government aid for them and criticizes governors for carrying out the very coronavirus mitigation policies he supports.
Dane Strother, a Democratic strategist, accused Trump of name-checking Harvard not because he is legitimately concerned that the university is receiving rescue funds it does not need but because doing so taps into the angst of his core supporters and distracts them from his administration’s failings. “It’s cultural,” he said. “His people devalue education — and they certainly hate Harvard."
Strother conceded, however, that it just might get Trump reelected despite a historic economic downturn amid a pandemic. “Any time he can deflect blame, which he’s a master of, it helps him,” he said.
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