Tuesday, May 5, 2020

THE TRUMP DEPRESSION IS HERE

Layoffs and corporate bankruptcies spread as US workers face mounting hardship


5 May 2020
US clothing retailer J. Crew filed for bankruptcy and US Steel and GE Aviation announced major job cuts as the economic catastrophe engulfing US workers continued to grow amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Along with a general meltdown of brick and mortar retail, manufacturing, health care and public services face deep cuts.
Despite the push by the Trump administration to abandon social distancing standards and reopen wide sections of the US economy, the official US COVID-19 death toll is holding steady at about 2,000 daily. By the latest count, cumulative US deaths are near 70,000, with over 1.2 million confirmed infections.
A report by the Centers for Disease Control published in the New York Times Monday contradicted the rosy official reports by the White House suggesting that the virus is in decline. It predicted that the US daily death rate would reach 3,000 by June 1, with 200,000 new cases daily as the virus spreads into less urbanized areas that previously had been only lightly impacted. While the Trump administration has distanced itself from the report, the numbers were based on modeling solicited by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The health crisis is being compounded by a continuing meltdown of the US economy, with 30 million having filed for unemployment benefits and unknown millions more either not eligible for jobless pay or unable to file due to overloaded state offices. This does not take into account the millions of small businesses facing ruin due to the drying up of customers.
On top of the millions impacted by temporary business closures, major corporations are announcing permanent job cuts in anticipation of a protracted recession.
US fashion retail chain J. Crew filed chapter 11 bankruptcy on May 4, the first national retail casualty of the pandemic. It has agreed to turn over effective control of the company to its creditors in exchange for the cancellation of $1.7 billion in debt. It said it had no plans at present to close stores, but its future, like that of many retail businesses, remains highly uncertain.
Other major retailers could follow. Neiman Marcus and J.C. Penney are reportedly struggling to raise cash and are likely considering following the examples of J. Crew.
Meanwhile, US Steel said in a filing Friday that it is preparing for the layoff of as many as 6,500 employees, although it expects the actual number affected to be about 2,700 of the 27,500 it currently employs. Even before the coronavirus pandemic hit, the company faced slowing demand as auto sales stagnated.
The company has now idled seven out of its 10 blast furnaces in the United States. These include three at the Gary Works site in Indiana, one at Granite City in Illinois, two at Great Lakes Steel in Michigan and one at the Mon Valley Works south of Pittsburgh.
On Monday, General Electric said it planned to cut the global workforce in its aviation division by 25 percent, impacting up to 13,000 jobs. The cuts come amidst a collapse in air travel and a likely sharp fall in orders for new planes from struggling airlines. The cuts will involve both voluntary and involuntary layoffs.
GE said the cuts were permanent, as it expected a prolonged depression in air travel. In a letter to employees, GE Aviation CEO David Joyce said, “To protect our business, we have responded with difficult cost-cutting actions over the last two months. Unfortunately, more is required as we scale the business to the realities of our commercial market.”
The spiraling economic crisis is forcing state 
and local governments to prepare for massive
cuts as tax revenue dries up. 
According to an estimate by the National League of Cities, between 300,000 and one million public-sector workers could be furloughed or laid off, impacting areas such as education, sanitation, public safety and health. The city of Detroit has already reduced hours or furloughed 3,000 workers. The City of Los Angeles has presented a 2020-2021 budget calling for the temporary furlough of 15,000 employees.
Underscoring the irrationality of for-profit medicine, health care providers across the US have carried out massive layoffs, furloughs or pay cuts. Hospitals have seen revenue dry with the cancellation of nonessential procedures, while facing high costs for treating COVID-19 patients, including the inflated cost of supplies such as masks. Some hospitals are concerned that vendors are buying up available supplies to sell them at higher prices.
The onset of the pandemic has seen a wave of bankruptcies, as already struggling firms are pushed over the edge. Among the recent casualties are:
  • Art Van Furniture, a Warren, Michigan-based retail chain, filed for bankruptcy March 8 and closed all 176 of its retail locations, with the loss of about 3,700 jobs.
  • Miami, Florida-based CMX Cinemas, a movie theater chain that also runs dine-in restaurants and bars, filed for bankruptcy April 25. All 41 of its theaters located in 12 states had been closed during the pandemic.
  • The slump in oil prices and demand forced Diamond Offshore Drilling to file for bankruptcy April 27. The Houston, Texas-based company employs 2,500 people and had revenue of $981 million last year.
  • Another petroleum company impacted by the oil glut, Denver-based shale oil producer Whiting Petroleum, filed for bankruptcy on April 1, though it said it would continue to operate its business. One analyst predicted that it was only “the first domino to fall” in the US energy sector amidst the collapse in oil prices. The US shale oil sector has the highest production costs in the world and needs a $50-$55-a-barrel world price to operate in the black.
  • Frontier Communications FTR, one of America’s largest telecom companies, filed on April 14. FTR is facing $10 billion in outstanding debt. Private equity firm BlackRock is the company’s largest stockholder, with a 9 percent investment. Vanguard Group and Charles Schwab each hold about 6 percent. Frontier is the fourth largest telecommunications provider, but was loaded up with debt following the acquisition of Verizon wireline services in several states, including Texas, California and Florida.
  • Modell’s Sporting Goods, based in New York, filed for Chapter 11 on March 11 and said it would close all 153 stores in the northeast. It had been in business since 1889.
  • Auto parts maker Spectra Premium filed for bankruptcy in Canada on March 10, with a simultaneous filing in the US. The company said that its operations had been hurt by US tariffs against China.
  • SpeedCast International, a satellite internet company that provides internet service to the cruise industry when ships are out at sea, filed for bankruptcy on April 23. The company serves 80 percent of cruise brands globally.
  • National fitness chain Golds Gym filed for bankruptcy Monday. It will close 30 gyms, but continue operations at its 700 other locations, including about 63 that are company-owned and operated.
An analysis by Gusto, a support platform for small business, found that young people and low-wage workers are being hardest hit by the economic meltdown. Those earning less than $20 per hour were 115 percent more likely to be laid off than those making $30 an hour or more. In addition, those under age 25 experienced a 93 percent higher rate of job loss than those age 35 and above.
According to their data, “the vast majority of workers in food and beverage, accommodations and salon and spa are paid hourly,” and more than 75 percent earn less than $15 an hour. These industries being hardest hit by state lockdowns.
The so-called stimulus measures by the US government, far from addressing the crisis, have been targeted to line the pockets of the super-rich, not to alleviate social distress. Tens of millions have not received even the meager $1,200 one-time “stimulus” check, and millions more are still waiting for unemployment benefits, assuming they can get through to overwhelmed state offices.
This is not merely the result of bureaucratic incompetence, but part of a policy. The ruling class is using the growing economic distress as a weapon to force workers back in the factories to crank out profit for the corporations, even as the pandemic continues and the death toll mounts.
Workers must oppose the antisocial, homicidal policy of the corporate elite with its own strategy, based on the unification of workers globally in the fight for socialism. The resources to fight the pandemic must be mobilized by seizing the vast fortunes of the billionaires to provide economic relief to workers and small businesses and the implementation of mass testing and other measures needed to stem the pandemic.


Bullard Says Unemployment Could Rise to 30%

Photo by John Vachon/Library Of Congress/Getty Images
23 Mar 2020523
1:15
The unemployment rate in the U.S. could hit 30 percent, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in Bloomberg News interview.
“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole,” Bullard said. “It is a huge shock and we are trying to cope with it and keep it under control.”
That would be the highest rate of unemployment since the Great Depression.
Bullard said he expects economic growth to plunge 50 percent in the second quarter but for the economy to bounce back later in the year, so long as the appropriate measures are taken by the fiscal and monetary authorities.
“I would see the third quarter as a transitional quarter,” Bullard said. The next six months, however, could be very strong. “Those quarters might be boom quarters,” he said.
Bullard also said the Fed was far from being “out of bullets,” as some Fed watchers have claimed.
“There is more that we can do if necessary,” he said. “There is probably much more in the months ahead depending on where Congress wants to go.”

Trump Is Surrounded by Criminals

https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-fall-of-donald-trump-final-days.html

 

“The legal ring surrounding him is collectively producing a historic indictment of his endemic corruption and criminality.” JONATHAN CHAIT
TRUMPERNOMICS FOR THE RICH…. and his parasitic family!
Report: Trump Says He Doesn't Care About the National Debt Because the Crisis Will Hit After He's Gone


 "Trump's alleged comment is maddening and disheartening,
but at least he's being straightforward about his indefensible
and self-serving neglect.  I'll leave you with 
this reminder of the scope of the problem, not that anyone in power is going to do a damn thing about it."


TRUMPERNOMICS:
THE SUPER RICH APPLAUD TWITTER’S TRUMP’S TAX CUTS FOR THE SUPER RICH!

"The tax overhaul would mean an unprecedented windfall for the super-rich, on top of the fact that virtually all income gains during the period of the supposed recovery from the financial crash of 2008 have gone to the top 1 percent income bracket."

 

Global economic slump accelerating

 
As the coronavirus spreads, taking more lives at an escalating rate, its effects are penetrating ever deeper into the global economy.
GOLDMAN  SACHS warned last week that US gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by 24 percent in the second quarter. There are forecasts that up to 5 million jobs will be lost in the American economy this year, with the fall in economic output to total as much as $1.5 trillion.
GOLDMAN  expects, at this stage, that US output will contract 3.1 percent this year and the unemployment rate will rise to 9 percent from the current level of 3.5 percent. This is on a par with the jobless rate of 10 percent in October 2009, following the financial meltdown of 2008.
But just as the health impact of the virus was significantly underestimated, the same may apply to the current economic forecasts.
“Things look so gloomy right now that perhaps we should be grateful if we can get out of this health crisis with a brief recession,” Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group told the Wall Street Journal.
“You just cannot rule out the prospect of a longer, more destructive depression,” he said.
In other words, a relatively short but deep recession is now the “best case” scenario.
The eurozone is expected to experience a fall of around 10 percent of GDP. But this forecast could well be exceeded. There is no end in sight to the spread of the virus and no clear assessment of the economic effect of the shutdowns being implemented to try to combat it.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the chief economist of the European Union, Paolo Gentiloni, indicated that officials were working on new measures.
“The consensus is growing day by day that we need to face an extraordinary crisis with extraordinary tools,” he said.
“This idea of a V-shape [recovery] that you can see in the first semester of 2020 is now completely impossible. We have no previous analysis of the impact of such a widespread lockdown in major economies.”
Gentolini conducted the interview as part of a political battle inside the EU over the economic and financial measures, bringing further into the open the widening rifts between leading member states.
Powerful forces in Germany and the Netherlands are opposed to all-European action, regarding this as a bailout for weaker economies such as Italy.
On the other side, the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire last week warned that failure to act in a unified manner meant the eurozone was in danger of disappearing.
European Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Münchau wrote yesterday that the situation facing the eurozone was “far worse” than the sovereign debt crisis of 2012.
“The coronavirus will prove to be an economic shock, a corporate solvency crisis and a political crisis all folded into one,” he said.
Münchau noted that European countries had fiscal stabilisers such as unemployment insurance, but these “shock absorbers” were designed to deal with “normal fluctuations.” They were not “big enough or strong enough for emergencies like this one.”
Pointing to the deepening divisions in Europe, Münchau wrote that not everyone would want to be in a monetary union with countries like the Netherlands where the prime minister was “ideologically opposed” to all-European measures. “This sort of unwilling partnership is not sustainable.”
In the absence of data on overall output, the Financial Times conducted a survey, particularly covering retail and services, to give some indication of what to expect.
It showed that vehicular traffic had halved in many of the world’s largest cities, while spending in restaurants and cinemas had collapsed.
Greg Daco, the chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said: “Looking at the data across various sectors of the US economy, it appears we could be heading for the most severe contraction in consumer spending on record.”
The rapid shrinkage in the real economy will further escalate the already severe crisis in the financial system, and extend from the stock and credit markets to the banks.
In a Financial Times comment, Sheila Bair, the former chief of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, wrote: “Big banks throughout the world are substantially exposed to the pandemic, particularly as it hurts corporate borrowers.”
Around the world, non-financial corporations covering every industry, including the hard-hit energy, transport, retail and hospitality sectors, had racked up debts to the tune of $70 trillion, she wrote.
“To survive, they are increasingly hoarding cash and tapping into their massive back-up lines of credit, placing additional strain on the banking system,” Bair wrote, noting that as bond markets “seize up,” bank credit may be their only source of cash.
But the ability to supply credit, she wrote, had been considerably weakened by the $325 billion paid out by the major global banks last year on dividends and share buybacks, some $155 billion of which was laid out by the eight largest banks in the US.
Meanwhile, fears are growing that the enormous pile of debt around the world could start to collapse as the economic effects of the coronavirus deepen and widen.
According to the Institute of International Finance, in a report published last November, total global corporate, government, finance sector and household debt had reached $253 trillion, equivalent to 322 percent of global GDP.
The unravelling could start in so-called emerging market economies where there is $72.5 trillion of debt, much of it denominated in US dollars. The growing dollar shortage in international markets, which has seen national currencies fall against the greenback, means obligations on interest and principal payments are rapidly rising.
This increase in the debt burden is occurring as all economies drop into recession, or something worse, and have less cash to meet their commitments.
It is not just emerging market economies that are affected. The Australian dollar, one of the most traded in the world, saw its rate against the US dollar drop to as low as 55 cents last week, compared to just under 70 cents a few months ago.
This means that the debt burden of a company or financial institution that had raised $100 million, when the Australian dollar traded at 70 cents to the US currency, would rise in Australian dollar terms from $A143 million to more than $A180 million when the Australian dollar fell to 55 cents, placing it under enormous strain as revenues drop.
The cash flow crisis is striking at the heart of the major economies as well.
In the UK, the Tory government is considering a plan to take out equity holdings in airlines and other companies because the economic stimulus packages announced so far are not sufficient to prevent collapses.
In the US, the Wall Street Journal has reported that “scores of US companies,” from the aircraft maker Boeing to the telecommunications Verizon, are “furiously lobbying” to be included in the bailout packages being prepared by the Trump administration that could run as high as $2 trillion.
For more than a century, the semi-official religion in the US has been the denunciation of socialism, which Trump had planned to make the centre of his re-election campaign.
Now the universal cry is: the state must intervene; once again billions must be handed to the corporations on an even larger scale than in the crisis of 2008.
The calls will only get louder. According to a Wall Street Journal report yesterday, investors and analysts say the more than 30 percent drop in the share market over the past month is not over, despite extraordinary actions by the Fed involving trillions of dollars.
Summing up the voracious outlook in corporate and financial circles, a representative of the global investment and banking firm State Street, told the Journal: “Market participants need to feel they are backstopped without question.”

Then Congress rushed through a record $2.2 trillion economic “rescue” bill, whose main purpose was to provide the Treasury and the Federal Reserve the necessary authority to bail out corporate America and Wall Street.

 

Coronavirus deaths in US nearing 4,000 as Trump washes his hands of responsibility

 
The coronavirus killed at least 812 people in the United States Tuesday, the highest death toll since the pandemic began, while nearly 25,000 new cases were reported, bringing the total number infected to more than 188,000, the largest number in the world by far.
Along with the unprecedented scale of the infection, its sheer speed is staggering. On March 10, there were only 1,000 reported coronavirus infections in the United States. Three weeks later, it is nearing 200 times that level. Another such three weeks would see 40 million people infected in the United States.
The US death toll has not yet reached the level of Italy (12,428) or Spain (8,464), but that is only a matter of days. And White House officials continue to escalate their projections of the total number of deaths in a “best-case” scenario, setting the figure at a staggering 240,000, with Trump himself hinting that the total could be double that.
President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference about the coronavirus in the Rose Garden of the White House, March 13, 2020, in Washington [Credit: AP Photo/Evan Vucci]
Four countries—Italy, Spain, the US and France—have now seen more deaths than China, where the epidemic first broke out in the city of Wuhan last December. After 3,305 deaths, China claims to have largely suppressed the outbreak through systematic testing, contact tracing and quarantining of those exposed to the coronavirus.
The American media and the Trump administration continually describe efforts to counteract the coronavirus as a war, where the frontlines are being drawn in emergency rooms and ICUs throughout the United States, and especially in the New York metropolitan area, where half of all COVID-19 cases are located. On Tuesday the death toll in New York City itself hit 1,096, and 10,000 people were hospitalized, with 2,700 of them requiring ventilators.
But in this war, under the incompetent “commander-in-chief” Trump and his hapless lieutenants among the state governors, the troops are being sent into battle haphazardly, without weapons, and largely without regard for their own safety. Healthcare workers lack sufficient personal protection equipment, and they are being infected and incapacitated at an alarming rate, with many deaths.
In Spain, the healthcare workers accounted for 14 percent of the country’s cases, while in Italy, they accounted for 10 percent. The same process is under way in the United States. NPR reported that 345 employees of Boston’s four largest hospitals have tested positive for COVID-19. In New York City, hundreds of workers have fallen ill. At Columbia University Irving Medical Center in Manhattan, 50 percent of the intensive-care staff have been infected.
The result is that in addition to the shortages of hospital rooms, ICU beds, masks, and ventilators, there is a growing shortage of medical staff who can cope with the increasing volume of patients seeking medical attention.
Meanwhile, hospitals and healthcare systems are threatening doctors and nurses who make their concerns over working conditions public. An emergency room physician, Dr. Ming Lin, in Washington state, was fired because he gave an interview to a newspaper complaining about inadequate protective equipment. Ruth Schubert, a spokeswoman for the Washington State Nurses Association, told Bloomberg, “Hospitals are muzzling nurses and other healthcare workers in an attempt to preserve their image.” Nurses who have spoken under conditions of anonymity with WSW S reporters said that they have been told they would be fired if they talked to the media.
In some cases, state governors have made statements that amount to a confession of bankruptcy. On CNN Live, Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland said, “We are all trying to get more testing, but this is a pinch point on testing, on supplies, and materials, and PPE and ventilators. Everybody in America knows we don’t have enough of these things … and without the tests we are really flying blind. We are guessing about where the outbreaks are, what the infection rates in the hospitals are, and the mortality rates.”
However, the Trump White House manages to combine moronic expressions of optimism (largely in the form of testimonials to Trump’s personal genius) with ever more ominous declarations that the death toll in the United States will reach six or even seven figures.
On Sunday, White House adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths was a midrange figure that could be substantially lowered if proper measures were taken. On Monday, White House coronavirus coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said that 100,000 to 200,000 was now the floor, the best-case scenario if everything went perfectly, while Trump himself declared that a death toll in that range would represent “a good job” by his administration.
On Tuesday, Fauci and Birx presented a slide show to a press briefing indicating projections that without severe mitigation, total deaths due to COVID-19 could reach 1.2 million to 2.2 million. Birx admitted that even with strict mitigation efforts throughout the month of April, the number of deaths could range as high as 240,000. At the peak of such a “best-case” outcome, 4,000 to 5,000 people would be dying every day.
Shocking as such figures are, even more outrageous is the blithe indifference displayed by Trump personally and his closest aides to the likely results of their own policy of refusing to conduct a serious struggle to contain the pandemic, not merely mitigate it.
Trump himself, towards the end of the press “briefing” that lasted more than two hours—a clear indication, in and of itself, that the White House antivirus campaign is an exercise in political propaganda and media manipulation—made comments that amounted to a self-indictment for criminal negligence on a monumental scale.
“We’re going through the worst thing this country has probably ever seen,” he said. “Look, we had the Civil War. We lost 600,000 people, right? Had we not done anything, we would have lost many times that, but we did something, so it’s going to be hopefully way under that. But you know, we lose more here potentially than you lose in world wars as a country.”
Given that the US death toll in the Second World War was 405,000, Trump is saying, in his semiliterate and meandering way, that the US death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic could well be between 400,000 and 600,000.
There was remarkably little push-back from the journalists of the corporate media who appeared to be in a daze. While several media outlets had taken note that on Tuesday morning, more Americans had died from coronavirus than were killed in the 9/11 terrorist attacks, not even this comparison, inadequate as it is, was made.
The US government’s response is best characterized as malign neglect to a pandemic that was both foreseen and preventable. With complete indifference to the fate of the people, the Trump administration’s primary focus was on ensuring the financial markets were protected. Only when the markets began to implode did the government’s machinery begin to churn to prevent its complete collapse. Everything else was deemed an afterthought.
First, on March 3, the Federal Reserve slashed rates by 0.5 
percent, the most significant cut since the 2008 financial crisis. 
On March 12, the Federal Reserve added $1.5 trillion of liquidity
 into the banking systems by massively expanding short-term 
loans to the banks to keep money markets stable and provide 
banks with cash in hand. When the markets continued to 
plummet on March 15, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a
full percentage point down to almost 0.00 percent. They also 
resumed quantitative easing by purchasing $500 billion in 
treasuries and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. 
Then Congress rushed through a record 
$2.2 trillion economic “rescue” bill, whose 
main purpose was to provide the Treasury 
and the Federal Reserve the necessary 
authority to bail out corporate America 
and Wall Street.
Comparing the gargantuan and energetic efforts to save the markets with the slapdash, indifferent and grossly incompetent actions in relation to public health, it is easy to see what are the priorities of the American financial aristocracy.
But there is another force to be heard from in this crisis—the working class. Instacart, Amazon, and Whole Foods workers have initiated strike actions against forced work under unsafe conditions. Workers at General Electric have protested, demanding their company begin producing ventilators. Many other workers are rebelling against being forced to remain on the job without protective gear.
As the crisis escalates, the decisive question is for the working class to develop a conscious political response, recognizing that it must fight the capitalist system as a whole, based on a socialist program.



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