How does that compare with history? Dismally. The pre-Biden average—which includes the awful 2020—of those who said they expect to be much worse off was just 1.8 percent. The somewhat worse-off average was 14 percent. The combined average was 15.8. So again, the worse-off number is now twice what was typical.
Recall that on Friday, the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment showed that things were still getting worse as June rolled on. Its consumer sentiment index hit its worst level ever at 50.2, a 14 percent decline in a few weeks from an already depressed level. The reading of current conditions dropped 12.5 percent to 55.4, and the expectations gauge dropped by a steeper 15.2 percent to 46.8 percent.
This crash in consumer sentiment would support not only the view that we are headed for a recession but also that we’re already in a recession. In any event, we’re not far off. The economy contracted in the first quarter at a 1.5 percent rate. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW gauge tells us that current economic data is indicative of growth of just 0.9 percent. A few more pieces of bad data and we’ll be right back in negative territory with just a few weeks left in the second quarter.
The dismal reads we got from so many of the regional Fed bank surveys of manufacturers—quite of few of which indicated either an outright contraction or nearly zero growth—also beckon toward recession. The S&P Global manufacturing purchase managers index, on the other hand, indicated that output continued to expand at a rate consistent with the ongoing expansion of the economy.
There are also these dismal earnings reports from Target, Walmart, and Costco and indications that some of the biggest retailers may have both too much inventory and too many employees. Big inventory overbuilds are a time-honored path into a recession in which production slows because businesses stop ordering new goods as they clear out unwanted inventory. Incidentally, this might help on the inflation side, since prices would fall due to discounting and sales to clear the warehouses. But stories of inventory overbuilds remain anecdotal. Data still shows no big surge in inventories this year—and so no reason for inventory contraction to help speed along a recession. That could change quickly, but it has not happened yet. In fact, if you look at real inventories—adjusting for the price of goods inflation—we are not yet at pre-pandemic levels across the economy.
A Target store is seen on August 19, 2020 in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
Arguing against the idea that we’re already in a recession is robust consumer spending plans and ultra-low unemployment. The Fed survey showed that consumers plan to increase spending nine percent this year, higher than the median point prediction for inflation. So consumers are expecting not just enough spending to keep up with inflation but even more. That’s a story that supports the idea that the economy is growing in real terms and could keep growing, at least for the next few quarters.
This is the tension the Federal Reserve will be considering at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. It’s likely that they will stick to the plan of a 50-basis point hike, although this is now seen as the minimum required. The futures-implied odds now give around a 30 percent chance of a 75-basis point hike, up from 3 percent a week ago. Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, thinks there’s a chance of a 100-basis point hike if the Fed wants to surprise the market in an attempt to get out from under the idea that it is “behind the curve.” More likely than a shock-and-awe hike—which does not seem to be Jerome Powell’s style—is a hawkish hike, where the Fed raises by the expected 50-basis point hike but hints at even bigger hikes to come.
The skies are dark. The hour is late. Unfortunately, there are likely darker times ahead.
BARACK OBAMA AND NANCY PELOSI WERE AT THE PRESIDENT'S SIDE WHEN HE MOVED ON TO THE NEXT ......
Any Last Words?
Small Business Owners’ Expectations for the Future Fall to New 48-year Low AP Photo/Evan Vucci 2:40
Small business owners in America are feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades, a survey released Tuesday morning showed.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its gauge of businesses expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell to the worst reading in the 48-year history of the survey. This measure’s previous all-time high was set in April.
Inflation continues to be a problem for small businesses with 28 percent of owners reporting it is their single most important problem in operating their business. That is below the 32 percent recorded in April, the highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1980.
“Inflation continues to outpace compensation which has reduced real incomes across the nation,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners remain very pessimistic about the second half of the year as supply chain disruptions, inflation, and the labor shortage are not easing.”
The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 72 percent, back to the highest reading in the 48-year-history of the survey last reached in March. This reading is up 40 percentage points since May of last year.
Consumer prices rose 8.6 percent in May, according to the index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week. That is the highest rate of inflation since 1981.
The NFIB said its broad gauge of Small Business Optimism Index ticked down one basis point in May to 93.1. This was the fourth consecutive month of below average scores for that index.
Fifty-one percent of owners reported job openings that could not be filled, up four points from the April and March readings.
Instead of relief for supply chain problems, these appear to be getting worse. Thirty-nine percent of owners report that supply chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business, up three points from April. Another 31 percent report a moderate impact and 22 percent report a mild impact. Only eight percent say there has been no impact from the recent supply chain disruptions.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the 4th quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in May 2022.
Harris’s views on trade and immigration, two of the most consequential issues to Wall Street, are in lockstep with financial executives’ objective to grow profit margins and add consumers to the market. JOHN BINDER
Jesse Watters: The Biden family business https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjCflVde7Gs
VIDEO
Ralph Nader: Biden's First Year Proves He Is Still a "Corporate Socialist" Beholden to Big Business https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jTIUtjkDss&t=28s
Hauser also didn’t like the prevalence of Big Law talent on the Department of Justice team, which signaled to him that the Biden administration could go soft on corporate malefactors. Alexander Nazaryan a
d
BLACKROCK OPERATES OUT OF THE BIDEN WHITE HOUSE THROUGH GAMER LAWYER AND BLACKROCK EMPLOYEE BRIAN DEESE. BLACKROCK IS JOE BIDEN'S BIGGEST BRIBESTERS!
YOU CAN'T SEPARATE JOE BIDEN FROM OBAMA'S BANKSTERS!
Transaction Man: The Rise of the Deal and the Decline of the American Dream
by Nicholas Lemann
And it all got much, much worse after 2008, when the schemes collapsed and, as Lemann points out, Barack Obama did not aggressively rein in Wall Street as Roosevelt had done, instead restoring the status quo ante even when it meant ignoring a staggering white-collar crime spree.
CNN analysis from September noted that “all the big banks” are backing Biden against Trump this election, as they backed Clinton against Trump in 2016.
Moody’s Analytics and Goldman Sachs reports to investors have sought to boost Biden’s chances against Trump by cheering a potential “blue wave” on election day. Biden has reportedly promised Wall Street donors, behind closed doors, a return to a globalized, economic status quo that has forced working and middle-class American communities into a managed decline for decades.
John Binder is a reporter for Breitbart News. Follow him on Twitter at @JxhnBinder .
The latest financial report from the Center for Responsive Politics reveals that Biden is set to rake in more than $74 million from Wall Street, which is more than the financial industry gave President Obama in his 2008 and 2012 campaigns combined.
Deese, the Global Head of Sustainable Investment at BlackRock, would be the second executive chosen by the incoming administration from the world’s largest asset manager, which controls $7 trillion in assets and is a major shareholder in Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, Apple, Microsoft and other global corporate giants.
GAMER LAWYER BRIAN DEESE
After working on Obama’s 2008 election campaign, Deese was appointed Special Assistant to the President for economic policy and served on the National Economic Council as Obama took over the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) from the outgoing George Bush administration, and pumped massive resources into the same banks and financial institutions whose criminal activities had crashed the economy.
The selection of Deese and Adeyemo—who both
previously served in the Obama administration
—exemplifies the revolving door between Wall
Street and Washington, DC, which operates
constantly, regardless of which party controls
the White House.
It is a further signal to the financial oligarchy that a Biden
administration will dispense with its rhetoric about raising taxes
on the wealthy and continue funneling trillions into the stock
markets. “By picking folks with deep ties to large asset
managers,” Tyler Gellasch, executive director of investor trade
group Healthy Markets Association, told the Journal , “the
administration can help assuage financial executives’ concerns.
It sends a clear signal to the industry to breathe easier: They can
plan for stability without likely facing massive new regulatory
or tax risks.”
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Warns Inflation Will Likely Last ‘Number of Years’ Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images 1:18
Appearing Thursday on Bloomberg Markets: The Close, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted inflation will likely last a “number of years.”
VIDEO
A transcript is as follows:
DAVID WESTIN: The markets have had a rocky road so far this year. As you look forward, is their any real prospect it can recoup?
LARRY FINK: Probably not, totally. The market has recalibrated itself. We witnessed a change in policy from the Federal Reserve. We raised short rates. We have a recalibration of growth stocks, that’s principally the majority of the downfall. The index is masking some of the problem because some of the index are energy, commodity companies that are up quite a bit. If you look at the volatility in the market, it’s spread between winners and losers. It’s pretty broad this year. We’ve taken out a lot of those gains that we’ve seen during the COVID years and the two years we were changing our lives, and emphasizing different companies. Now, we’re seeing the reverse impact of that. That’s one of the foundations of it. But now, there’s great recognition that inflation is not transitory, it is probably with us for a number of years.
Banks Preparing for 2022 Recession (DEBT CRISIS INEVITABLE)
Wall Street Banks will Trigger a Recession & Debt Crisis in 2022. And there is nothing the Fed, Jerome Powell, or the US Government can do to stop it.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, just stated that an economic hurricane is coming to the US Economy and that Recession could hit by the end of 2022. Other Wall Street banks like Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley have said similar things.
These banks could be foreshadowing a big Recession and Debt Crisis in 2022. The reason being - as these banks pull back on lending in the face of higher interest rates, the colossal $43 Trillion Debt Bubble in America's Economy faces risk of Crashing.
Right now the US Debt Bubble is 200% higher than Personal Income. That's an all-time high and means that debt has sustained the US Economy, Housing Market, and Stock Market over the last 30 Years. Now with the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell in Tightening Monetary Policy via Interest Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening, the level of debt in America is likely to decline. And trigger a Recession as a result.
We're already seeing this take place in the US Housing Market, where a big surge in Mortgage Rates has crushed homebuyer demand and will likely lead to a decline in prices. It's also likely to happen with Credit Cards, as higher short-term interest rates increase the cost of borrowing and make it more difficult for the American Consumer to spend money.
Speaking of the American Consumer - their confidence/sentiment level is near the lowest level on record according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The last two times Consumer Sentiment was this low was in 1980, before a brutal double-dip recession, and 2008, before the biggest Recession / Financial Crash since the Great Depression.
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15 Facts That Prove That America Is In Deep, Deep Trouble https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSOJz_XayVU
verywhere we look, we find more indications that the United States is in a lot of trouble. America's domestic supply chains have been broken, and disruptions continue to pile on, causing more shortages and exacerbating price increases all over the nation. Our system has never been so vulnerable to external interruptions, and experts say the U.S. is extremely vulnerable to cyberattacks at a time nearly all services and operations that make the economy run are heavily dependent on technology. With consumer prices over 8% higher than a year ago, growing affordability constraints are putting immense pressure on the finances of millions of American families, while household incomes remain stagnant. Despite Fed policies to tame inflation, consumer prices are going to remain elevated this year due to elevated due to the soaring costs of housing, energy, and food as the global commodity market faces shortages of energy supplies, raw materials, fertilizers, grains, and semiconductors.
To make things worse, our financial markets are starting to falter, with the stock market recording billions in losses week after week, and the housing market bubble on the verge of another disastrous burst. All of that is occuring at the same time as our geopolitical conflicts with other major economies continues to escalate. Many more problems continue to emerge with each passing day, and the things we just mentioned are not even half of the story. Wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, winter storms, and heatwaves were among the 20 weather and climate disasters the United States has faced over the past 12 months. Those extreme weather events have resulted in $145 billion in damages in 2021 and victimized 688 people. Such disasters are becoming more frequent with each passing year, and it is being it is estimated that more than 100 million people in the U.S. will experience temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees above average this summer.
On top of everything we’ve already mentioned, shall we add a diesel fuel shortage and a nationwide electricity shortage to the equation? We’re actually being warned that energy supplies are rapidly dwindling in America, and a shocking diesel shortage could begin this summer. That's why in today's video, we brought you a compilation of stats, forecasts and updated numbers about the issues our country is currently facing and the challenges we are about to face in the months ahead.
LOS ANGELES IS A MEX-OCCUPIED CITY AND COUNTY. THE COUNTY OF L.A. HANDS ILLEGALS $1.5 BILLION IN ANCHOR BABY WELFARE EVEN AS THERE ARE 100K LEGALS LIVING ON SIDEWALKS
JOE BIDEN’S TRICKLE UP ECONOMICS
Retirement Rescheduled: Bidenflation Prevents Americans From Living Out Their Golden Years
https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2022/06/joe-bidens-assault-on-middle-america.html
Biden pledges to accept 20k Latin
American
refugees
Portland, Maine to raise property taxes to pay for free housing for 'asylum-seekers' MONICA SHOWALTER https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2022/06/june-10-2022-portland-maine-to-raise.html
Illegal aliens are known to cost U.S. citizens billions to support, but rarely is that experienced as directly as it is now in Portland, Maine, where city officials voted to raise property taxes in order to house 1,200 "asylum seekers," along with 500 homeless.
WHAT???? SHOULD AMERICA LOOK TO THE GOP TO END BIDEN’S ORCHESTRATED MASSIVE INVASION TO KEEP WAGES DEPRESSED?!?!?!
https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2022/06/president-of-narcomex-howls-it-is.html
Republican Study Committee Creates Holistic Immigration Plan to Raise Wages, Grow Middle Class The RSC Budget would prohibit federal funds from going to cities or jurisdictions operating as sanctuaries for illegal immigrants. There are at least 190 of these so-called sanctuary jurisdictions across the country, [7] and many cities have seen increased crime rates since declaring themselves sanctuary cities. [8
VIDEO
20 Signs Of The Staggering Decline Of The American Middle Class Family
We just got more evidence that the middle class is being systematically destroyed in America. At this point, millions of people out there have already grown accustomed to barely scraping by from month to month. But that is not what being “middle class” is supposed to be about. Middle-class families should be able to make more money than they have to spend on everyday necessities because is only by doing so that they can build long-term wealth.
Unfortunately, income growth has not kept up with the pace of the rising cost of living, and millions of households have taken massive amounts of debt. At the same time, the labor market doesn't offer good-paying jobs that support middle-class life, and the lack of these positions has been contributing to the decline of this income group all across the country. In the early 1970s, the middle class accounted for around 60 percent of the population, but now middle-income households are rapidly becoming a minority in the United States. And as economic conditions continue to deteriorate, millions of hard-working families all over America are being stretched financially like never before.
“In America, the middle class can no longer afford retirement. Middle-class Americans face sharp economic inequality, with ownership of financial assets highly concentrated among the wealthy,” explained Tyler Bond, NIRS research manager. “Now that we have a retirement system largely built around the individual ownership of financial assets in 401(k) accounts, middle-class Americans are struggling to accumulate sufficient financial assets during their working years. This means the retirement outlook for many in the middle class is bleak at best.”
Since the onset of the health crisis, the U.S. economy has been decaying at an alarming pace. Over the past two years, the middle class has gotten smaller and smaller in this country, and now it seems that another economic downturn is upon us once again. So many families are already living on the edge right now.
Recent surveys have exposed that well over 50% of the population is living paycheck to paycheck and that most Americans don't have emergency savings or a financial cushion to fall back on. When you are living on the edge, there is always a danger that you could fall over. Since 2020, we have never seen so many middle-class Americans falling straight into poverty. In other words, unless dramatic changes happen in America, the middle class is going to be absolutely eviscerated in the next decade. We must wake up now. The middle class is dying right before our eyes, and if we want to save it, we must take action now.
Today, we compiled a series of new numbers that expose the rapid downfall of the U.S. middle-class.
Inflation in L.A. Falls ‘Disproportionately on the Working Class’ Kyle Grillot / Bloomberg via Getty 3:34
President Joe Biden came to Los Angeles to take a victory lap Friday, claiming — falsely — that “core inflation” had declined, as the effects of 8.6% inflation fell “disproportionately on the working class” in the L.A. metro area, according to a local economist.
As Breitbart News reported , Biden delivered a speech at the port facility, where a cargo crisis last fall threatened supply chains and raised inflationary pressures. He claimed, wrongly, that inflation is down if gas and food prices are excluded:
“Inflation outside of energy and food, what the economists call core inflation, moderated the last two months,” Biden said. “Not enough, but it moderated, it’s come down and we need it to come down much more quickly.”
…
But month-to-month core inflation in May was actually at 0.6 percent, the same percentage as it was in April.
…
Biden blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the high rate of inflation.
Despite Biden’s claims, the burden of inflation is one that even traditionally Democratic voters in L.A. cannot ignore. The L.A. Times reported:
The Biden administration has been under pressure to reassure Americans that inflation won’t reel out of control. The most recent numbers seemed to upend that hope, with prices rising for goods across the board, led by sharp jumps in the costs of energy and groceries.
In a metro area as large as Los Angeles with an economy driven by low-wage work, the effects of inflation — especially gas prices — fall disproportionately on the working class, said Leo Feler, a senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
Annual inflation in the L.A. metro area, which includes Los Angeles and Orange counties, clocked in at 8% in May. San Diego saw 8.3%, while the Riverside metro area, which includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties, saw a 9.4% inflation rate.
Biden touted the government’s efforts to ease the cargo crisis by threatening to penalize companies that left shipping containers on the docks. However, these were simply replaced by outgoing containers that were not removed for months.
And though Biden promised to move the ports at Los Angeles and Long Beach to 24/7 operations, they could not find enough workers willing to work the overnight shifts. The cargo crunch did ease somewhat, helped by China’s coronavirus lockdowns, which slowed shipping traffic to and from the manufacturing giant. But a new surge is expected soon.
Food Banks Fight To Keep Doors Open Amid Record Inflation, Demand A child picks up a bag at a New York City food bank in 2021 / Getty Images Philip Caldwell • May 11, 2022 2:30 pmFood pantries are struggling to remain open as inflation drives increased demand for food distribution and raises operating costs, the Associated Press reported.
The record inflation seen in recent months has led massive numbers of people across the country to seek out food banks rather than brave sticker shock at the grocery store. Officials at multiple food distribution organizations told the AP they've been swamped by the demand for food.
"In the last few months, with this increase in inflationary pressures, we're seeing 95 percent of our 200 member food banks saying that they have seen either leveling or an increase in need," Claire Babineaux-Fontenot, CEO of Feeding America, a national food bank network, told the AP.
At one church food pantry in Washington state, demand for food rose 40 percent between December and March, Eric Williams, an official with a local food bank supplier, told the AP. Food banks and suppliers are also struggling with the rising cost of food, which is up 9.4 percent from last year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report . Williams said the price his organization pays per pound of produce has nearly doubled in a year.
Inflation has also forced some food pantry partners of Feeding America either to shut down or provide less food.
"Our network emphasizes access and equity," Babineaux-Fontenot told the AP. "So we are working extra hard to reach people who have the deepest food insecurity rates. Well, how far out can we go when gas prices are high?"
Food pantries are also having to make up for a decrease in donations.
"Compared to last year at this time, we're about 50 percent down in what we have received in the past in federal food donations and then about 20 percent down from food drives in our collection of food at the grocery stores," the executive director of an Ohio food bank network told the AP. "All of that combined is truly having an impact on our budget because we're needing to purchase more food outright."
