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Poll: Tight Race Between Biden and Trump, but RFK Jr. Complicates Matters
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden find themselves neck-and-neck in a head-to-head race nationally, but third-party candidates further complicate matters, according to a Fox News poll.
In a head-head between Biden and Trump in Wednesday’s poll, the candidates are in a statistical tie within the ± three percent margin of error (MOE). Biden registers 49 percent, and Trump takes 48 percent of the response. Another one percent are undecided, two percent plan to abstain from voting, and one percent will write someone else in.
Trump’s backing is unchanged since September’s Fox News poll, while Biden has climbed three points.
However, a three-way race between Trump, Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves Trump and Biden deadlocked at 41 percent apiece. Kennedy siphons support from both candidates, drawing sixteen percent of the response in this scenario as just one percent of voters are undecided, one percent will not vote, and one percent back someone else.
RELATED: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Announces Run for President as an Independent Candidate
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr via StoryfulIn a contest between Trump, Biden, and Green Party presidential candidate Cornel West, West hurts Biden more than Kennedy does. Trump takes 45 percent of the response, leading Biden at 43 percent. West garners nine percent of the vote, with another four percent who are undecided, will vote for someone else, or will sit the election out.
“Independents are more likely to go for Kennedy (41%) than West (28%). That is at the expense of Trump, who performs 9 points better among independents against West than Kennedy,” noted Fox News’s Dana Blanton.
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Seeing a general election with all four candidates is not out of the question, though Fox News did not probe this angle.
Fox News also gauged potential match-ups between Biden and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) as well as former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC). DeSantis leads Biden by two points in a statistical tie at 49 percent to 47 percent, while Haley has a four-point advantage, just outside of the MOE. She takes 49 percent of the response to Biden’s 45 percent.
However, the 45th president towers over Haley, DeSantis, and other opponents in the GOP presidential primary and caucus field. Trump dominates the competition with 59 percent of the response among 449 likely GOP primary voters or caucus-goers. DeSantis, Trump’s nearest competitor, is 46 points behind the 45th president with 13 percent of the response.
Haley is on DeSantis’s heels with ten percent, surging five points since the September survey, while anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is also in the hunt at seven percent of support, though he is down three points since the last Fox News poll.
Former Vice President Mike Pence follows with four percent of backing, while former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) earns three percent. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) round out the field with one percent apiece.
The margin of error for the GOP primary portion of the poll is ± 4.5 percentage points. Regarding the general election, the total sample included 1,007 registered voters with a ± three percent MOE. The poll was conducted from October 6 to 9.
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