Recall Gavin Newsom? The time is right, GOP activists say
After less than a year in office, Gov. Gavin Newsom is already the target of a pair of recall efforts. But, if history is any judge, he might not have to start packing up his Capitol office just yet.
Since 1911, when the voter-approved recall process became law, there have been 51 attempts to oust a sitting governor. Only one, the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, succeeded.
“It’s a stretch,” said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who was a top aide to Davis. “California has become a lot more Democratic since 2003,” he said, and a lot less likely to bounce a Democratic governor.
But that’s not stopping a pair of Republicans from starting long-shot efforts to oust the former San Francisco mayor.
Erin Cruz of Palm Springs and James Veltmeyer, a San Diego-area physician, both had their recall petitions approved in September and have until late February and early March, respectively, to collect the nearly 1.5 million valid signatures needed to force a recall election.
Cruz, a self-proclaimed Tea Party Republican, finished sixth in the 2018 California primary for U.S. Senate and is running against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert (Riverside County) in the March 3 primary.
Her recall campaign links Newsom to “over a decade of proven mismanagement of policies, public monies and resources,” as well as to lousy schools, crumbling roads, soaring homelessness, protection for undocumented residents and “putting Californians and United States citizens, including our veterans, last.”
According to the secretary of state’s office, Cruz also filed recall petitions in March against Newsom and every other Democrat elected statewide. None of the recalls qualified for the ballot.
Veltmeyer, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2016 and 2018, has much more specific attacks against Newsom in his recall petition. He argues that the governor “has allowed our major cities to be overrun by homelessness,” proposed higher taxes, supports state-paid health care for undocumented residents, and “violated and subverted federal immigration law by encouraging ‘Sanctuary State’ and city policies that shield criminal illegal aliens from law enforcement and immigration authorities.”
Although the problems listed in the recall petitions predate Newsom, who took office in January, that doesn’t make a difference, said Andrew Russo, a consultant for Veltmeyer’s effort.
“We’re not saying this is all (Newsom’s) fault, but as governor, it’s happening on his watch,” he said. “He’s done a lot of damage in a very short time.”
When Newsom won an easy victory last November, California voters didn’t realize what they were getting, Russo added.
The governor has put together “a radical left-wing agenda for the people of California,” he said. “Newsom’s record is much worse” than anyone could have expected.
That’s not the way the governor sees it.
“A handful of partisan activists supporting President Trump and his dangerous agenda to divide America are trying to overturn the definitive will of California voters,” Newsom said in a statement that by law must be attached to every recall petition. “The last thing California needs is another wasteful special election, supported by those who demonize California’s people and attack California’s values.”
For South, who went through the 2003 recall, the current effort lacks many of the elements that cost Davis his job.
“The stars have to align” for a successful recall, said South, who also has worked for Newsom. Davis, he said, ran into “a perfect storm.”
Davis won a surprisingly close victory over Republican Bill Simon in 2002. It was a low-turnout election, which meant that it was easy to qualify a recall petition. Doing so requires signatures representing 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous governor’s race.
In 2003, just under 900,000 signatures were needed for the recall. By contrast, the huge turnout in 2018 means backers need at least 1.5 million signers to recall Newsom, and probably hundreds of thousands more to ensure they have enough valid signatures.
With professional signature-gathering companies charging $1 per name or more — sometimes much more — a recall effort needs plenty of money even to get on the ballot, much less succeed in dumping the governor.
The anti-Davis effort succeeded when then-Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County), dropped more than $1.2 million into the recall effort.
“Before Issa put in the money, (recall backers) weren’t collecting enough signatures to make the ballot,” South said.
Cash for the Newsom recall drive is a problem, said spokesman Russo. He said his group “is shaking the money tree” in an effort to find people willing to back the signature drive.
“We already have half the signatures we wanted from our volunteer drive, but we need funding for paid professional circulators,” he added.
Then there’s the election itself.
After a full term in office, a nasty election and problems that included rolling blackouts because of companies playing fast and loose with the state’s power grid, Davis’ numbers “were in the tank,” said South. But he’s convinced Davis still could have turned back the recall, until Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped into the race.
As an action-hero movie star, Schwarzenegger already was known by virtually every California voter. Even worse for Davis, Schwarzenegger was nominally a Republican but “wasn’t viewed in a partisan context,” South said.
Even if a recall against the governor does make the ballot, “who’s going to be Arnold in a recall against Newsom?” South asked.
Russo knows the odds are against the recall effort succeeding. But a loss won’t discourage the anti-Newsom forces.
“If the recall doesn’t happen this time, we can do it again, as many times as we want with people’s frustration (with Newsom) rising,” he said.
John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com Twitter:@jfwildermuth
After less than a year in office, Gov. Gavin Newsom is already the target of a pair of recall efforts. But, if history is any judge, he might not have to start packing up his Capitol office just yet.
Since 1911, when the voter-approved recall process became law, there have been 51 attempts to oust a sitting governor. Only one, the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, succeeded.
“It’s a stretch,” said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who was a top aide to Davis. “California has become a lot more Democratic since 2003,” he said, and a lot less likely to bounce a Democratic governor.
But that’s not stopping a pair of Republicans from starting long-shot efforts to oust the former San Francisco mayor.
Erin Cruz of Palm Springs and James Veltmeyer, a San Diego-area physician, both had their recall petitions approved in September and have until late February and early March, respectively, to collect the nearly 1.5 million valid signatures needed to force a recall election.
Cruz, a self-proclaimed Tea Party Republican, finished sixth in the 2018 California primary for U.S. Senate and is running against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert (Riverside County) in the March 3 primary.
Her recall campaign links Newsom to “over a decade of proven mismanagement of policies, public monies and resources,” as well as to lousy schools, crumbling roads, soaring homelessness, protection for undocumented residents and “putting Californians and United States citizens, including our veterans, last.”
According to the secretary of state’s office, Cruz also filed recall petitions in March against Newsom and every other Democrat elected statewide. None of the recalls qualified for the ballot.
Veltmeyer, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2016 and 2018, has much more specific attacks against Newsom in his recall petition. He argues that the governor “has allowed our major cities to be overrun by homelessness,” proposed higher taxes, supports state-paid health care for undocumented residents, and “violated and subverted federal immigration law by encouraging ‘Sanctuary State’ and city policies that shield criminal illegal aliens from law enforcement and immigration authorities.”
Although the problems listed in the recall petitions predate Newsom, who took office in January, that doesn’t make a difference, said Andrew Russo, a consultant for Veltmeyer’s effort.
“We’re not saying this is all (Newsom’s) fault, but as governor, it’s happening on his watch,” he said. “He’s done a lot of damage in a very short time.”
When Newsom won an easy victory last November, California voters didn’t realize what they were getting, Russo added.
The governor has put together “a radical left-wing agenda for the people of California,” he said. “Newsom’s record is much worse” than anyone could have expected.
That’s not the way the governor sees it.
“A handful of partisan activists supporting President Trump and his dangerous agenda to divide America are trying to overturn the definitive will of California voters,” Newsom said in a statement that by law must be attached to every recall petition. “The last thing California needs is another wasteful special election, supported by those who demonize California’s people and attack California’s values.”
For South, who went through the 2003 recall, the current effort lacks many of the elements that cost Davis his job.
“The stars have to align” for a successful recall, said South, who also has worked for Newsom. Davis, he said, ran into “a perfect storm.”
Davis won a surprisingly close victory over Republican Bill Simon in 2002. It was a low-turnout election, which meant that it was easy to qualify a recall petition. Doing so requires signatures representing 12% of the number of votes cast in the previous governor’s race.
In 2003, just under 900,000 signatures were needed for the recall. By contrast, the huge turnout in 2018 means backers need at least 1.5 million signers to recall Newsom, and probably hundreds of thousands more to ensure they have enough valid signatures.
With professional signature-gathering companies charging $1 per name or more — sometimes much more — a recall effort needs plenty of money even to get on the ballot, much less succeed in dumping the governor.
The anti-Davis effort succeeded when then-Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County), dropped more than $1.2 million into the recall effort.
“Before Issa put in the money, (recall backers) weren’t collecting enough signatures to make the ballot,” South said.
Cash for the Newsom recall drive is a problem, said spokesman Russo. He said his group “is shaking the money tree” in an effort to find people willing to back the signature drive.
“We already have half the signatures we wanted from our volunteer drive, but we need funding for paid professional circulators,” he added.
Then there’s the election itself.
After a full term in office, a nasty election and problems that included rolling blackouts because of companies playing fast and loose with the state’s power grid, Davis’ numbers “were in the tank,” said South. But he’s convinced Davis still could have turned back the recall, until Arnold Schwarzenegger jumped into the race.
As an action-hero movie star, Schwarzenegger already was known by virtually every California voter. Even worse for Davis, Schwarzenegger was nominally a Republican but “wasn’t viewed in a partisan context,” South said.
Even if a recall against the governor does make the ballot, “who’s going to be Arnold in a recall against Newsom?” South asked.
Russo knows the odds are against the recall effort succeeding. But a loss won’t discourage the anti-Newsom forces.
“If the recall doesn’t happen this time, we can do it again, as many times as we want with people’s frustration (with Newsom) rising,” he said.
John Wildermuth is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com Twitter:@jfwildermuth
No comments:
Post a Comment