Wednesday, July 1, 2020

REAL JOBLESS NUMBERS MUCH HIGHER

FINANCE

Estimate of private sector employment for May revised up by 6M

ADP on Wednesday reported a huge revision of 6 million in its estimate of private-sector employment for May.

The data processing company originally estimated that May saw a loss of over 2.7 million jobs. Wednesday's report includes a revised estimate that the private sector gained 3 million jobs.

The report also showed that private-sector jobs continued to grow in June, with nearly 2.4 million jobs being added. The battered leisure and hospitality sector, which suffered massive jobs losses in the past, gained nearly 1 million jobs in June.

“As the economy slowly continues to recover, we are seeing a significant rebound in industries that once experienced the greatest job losses,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, when announcing the June report. “In fact, 70 percent of the jobs added this month were in the leisure and hospitality, trade, and construction industries.”

Small businesses with less than 50 employees also fared well in June as nearly 1 million workers were added to payrolls.



DO WE REALLY WANT AMNESTY AND MORE CHAIN MIGRATION?

BLOG EDITOR: THERE ARE FAR MORE LIKELY TO BE 40 MILLION ILLEGALS. NOW DO THE MATH!

They will immediately amnesty 20 million illegal aliens and get them on the voting rolls, making it impossible for the Republicans to win any more national elections.  
                                       TUCKER CARLSON


























Record 47.2 percent of working-age Americans without jobs


1 July 2020
According to newly released Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures, 47.2 percent of working-age Americans were without work in May, the highest level recorded since the end of World War II.
The numbers are based on the BLS employment-population ratio, which states the proportion of the total labor force who are actually working. It is a more accurate measure of joblessness than the monthly unemployment report, which counts only those actively seeking work.
At the end of May the employment-population ratio stood at 52.8 percent; it stood at 61.2 percent at the start of the year. The employment-population ratio reached a postwar high of nearly 65 percent in 2000.
Citing Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Deutsche Bank, CNBC said it would take the creation of an additional 30 million jobs to bring the employment-population ratio back to January levels.
The report comes ahead of the release of the official jobless statistics for June later this week. They are expected to reflect a marginal decline in the official unemployment rate from 13.3 percent in May to 12.4 percent in June. It is not known if the June figures will correct the previous undercount in the numbers of May and April, when millions of workers were incorrectly classified. This resulted in the official jobless percentages being about 3 percent lower in May and 5 percent lower in June.
A pregnant woman waits in line for groceries with hundreds during a food pantry, sponsored by Healthy Waltham for those in need due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, at St. Mary's Church in Waltham, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
The official unemployment rate remains at Great Depression levels in a number of states. Nevada, hard hit by the shutdown of the gaming industry, had an unemployment rate of 25.3 percent in May compared to 4.0 percent one year earlier. Hawaii stood at 22.6 percent in May compared to just 2.7 percent one year earlier, while Michigan registered 21.2 percent compared to 4.2 percent in May 2019. In California and Massachusetts, unemployment stood at 16.3 percent in May.
Joblessness was the highest in the leisure and hospitality sector, 35.9 percent. Retail was at 15.1 percent, construction at 12.7 percent and manufacturing at 11.6 percent. Among young people age 16–19, 29.9 percent were unemployed and 23.2 percent of workers age 20–24 had no work.
Despite the reckless early reopening of state economies during the course of June, there were around 1.5 million new claims each week for unemployment benefits. Many workers do not have a job to come back to. This is particularly the case for those employed at small businesses, such as restaurants, which could not survive the shutdown. A further wave of larger bankruptcies is also expected.
The full impact of this economic collapse will hit toward the end of July when the temporary weekly increase of $600 in unemployment benefits enacted in the CARES bill ends. The cutoff, scheduled for the week ending July 25, will slash income by about two-thirds for 20 million workers and will lead to a surge in hunger and evictions.
Personal income dropped 4.2 percent in May, despite the supplemental payments. The cutoff will be particularly devastating for low-wage workers, since regular unemployment benefits cover half or less of weekly pay.
The moratorium on evictions from federally subsidized housing contained in the CARES Act is also set to expire at the end of July, meaning that millions of families could soon confront the possibility of being in the street. According to the latest US Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, 30 percent of renters had little or no confidence that they could meet housing payments for the next month.
A patchwork of state and local temporary bans on evictions are expiring or are being challenged by landlord associations. A statewide eviction ban was set to expire in Florida on July 1, barring a last-second extension by the governor. A statewide ban in Virginia expired June 29. In San Francisco, a citywide ban is being challenged in court. Earlier this month, an eviction ban expired in New York City, leading to warnings that 50,000–60,000 eviction cases could soon be filed in housing courts.
Andy Winkler of the Bipartisan Policy Center issued a warning reported in Politico of a “tsunami” of evictions following the expiration of the $600 unemployment supplement.
It is clear that corporations are using the crisis caused by the pandemic to carry out a major restructuring, including the permanent elimination of huge numbers of jobs. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy will contract by five percent in 2020, with US GDP down by eight percent. The GDPs of Mexico and Europe are expected to decline 10 percent, while China will show no growth. The second quarter in the US is expected to show the largest quarterly contraction since the end of WWII.
In an indication of what is to come, Airbus announced 15,000 job cuts worldwide by 2021 as it restructures its operations, an 11 percent reduction. Ten thousand job losses will be in Germany and France alone.
Graph showing the sharp fall in the employment-population ratio
In recent years, spokesmen for the ruling class have been bitterly complaining that record low unemployment had created “tight labor markets” and demands for rising wages. The destruction of tens of millions of jobs will now be used by corporations as a hammer to demand a new wave of wage and benefit cuts from workers. This has already been seen in the airlines and among public-sector workers.
Amidst this devastation, the US stock market closed June with one of the best quarterly rises in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 216 points Tuesday. For the second quarter, the Dow Jones rose 16 percent, erasing most of the losses of the first quarter of 2020. Apple, Home Depot, Dow and Microsoft were among those making the strongest gains. The S&P 500 showed a 19.1 percent gain for the quarter, while the Nasdaq is up 11 percent for the year.
The rise in the markets comes as COVID-19 cases surge in the United States, with record numbers of new infections, following the lifting of all attempts by federal and state governments to control the virus. The stock rise has been fueled not by an improving real economy, but the unlimited infusion of cash by the US Federal Reserve. Like a heroin addict, the markets rely on ever-greater injections of liquidity to maintain their inflated levels. Meanwhile, the attacks on workers’ jobs and living standards become ever more ferocious as the corporate oligarchy attempts to claw back the money from the hides of workers.
Workers should not accept that they shoulder the economic burden for the criminal and inept response of the capitalist authorities to the coronavirus pandemic. The massive resources going to the financial markets must be redirected to meeting pressing human needs. Workers made jobless by the spread of the virus and necessary health measures must have their incomes and livelihoods protected. This requires the independent political mobilization of the working class on the basis of a socialist and internationalist program.






Joe Biden: H-1B Foreign Workers ‘Built this Country’

H1-B Visa Workers
MANJUNATH KIRAN/AFP/Getty Images
6:59

Joe Biden told NBC News that he would immediately lift President Donald Trump’s June 22 moratorium on the inflow of H-1B contract workers if he wins the 2020 election.
Trump “ended H1B visas the rest of this year,” Biden said in a June 27 town hall meeting organized by NBC News. “That will not be in my administration.”
“The people coming on these [H-1B] visas have built this country,” Biden added.
“He said the H-1Bs built this country? So the country didn’t exist before 1990? That is interesting,” responded Rosemary Jenks, policy director at NumbersUSA. If Biden is elected, she said:
I think we will see an increased number of parents realizing that their children will not do better than they did, and that is the antithesis of the American dreams. If many college graduates cannot get good jobs, well-paying jobs, they are not going to be as successful as their parents, and we will have reversed one of the foundational principles of America. – that we are a country of opportunity.
We’re already seen that the most recent high school and college grads are looking at what’s ahead of them and they are very insecure and they are very depressed. The question is how to they respond to that environment? They can take whatever job they can find, or do they rebel and go out and tear down statues?
On June 22, Trump announced H-1B reforms that will open up jobs for young U.S. graduates. He blocked the entry of new H-1B workers until January 2021, and he directed officials to complete a regulation that would allocate H-1B visas to the employers who offer the high pay. Trump adopted the reforms amid determined resistance from globalist aides because of grassroots pressure by U.S. professionals.
The H-1B program keeps roughly 600,000 foreign H-1B workers in U.S. white-collar jobs, including many who are doing on-the-job training so they can bring those jobs back to India. The H-1B and other visa workers are not immigrants but are foreigners who are allowed to take jobs in the United States, even if Americnas can do the job


Many of the H-1Bs work for prestigious technology companies, but many others are low-wage gig workers for foreign-owned subcontractors of Fortune 500 companies.
The gig-worker H-1B workforce works alongside the resident population of illegal professionals, and the growing population of roughly 500,000 foreign workers who get work permits via college-approved Curricular Practical Training and the Optional Practical Training programs.
Many U.S. executives prefer foreign workers because they work compliantly for longer hours and lower wages in the hope of eventually getting green cards from their employers. Many of the foreign workers also pay kickbacks to the immigrant managers who are quietly allowed to hire them, Indian workers tell Breitbart News.
Executives exclude Americans from the growing ethnic labor market because they do not need green cards and so must be paid in cash from company shareholders. Americans are also excluded because they have the right to question their managers and to quit for better opportunities.
This disparity in wages, rights, and compliance ensurse that many Americans never get offered jobs that match their college training. In a February hearing, Hal Salzman, a workforce professor at Rutgers University, told a Senate committee:
Overall, our colleges and universities graduate twice the number of STEM [Science, Technology, Enginering and Mathematic] graduates as find a job each year; that is, only about half of our STEM graduates enter the STEM workforce. Of the entire workforce, only about a third of those with STEM degrees are employed in STEM jobs
….
The fundamental problem of U.S. and foreign [Information Technology] outsourcing firms’ hiring practices is the exclusion of U.S. workers–whether native or immigrant, citizen or permanent resident—which is made possible by specially crafted [visa worker] legislation for this purpose; it is legislation that serves as a congressionally-provided subsidy to a highly profitable industry to hire guest workers at the expense of jobs for U.S. workers.
But there is another, curiously overlooked outcome, which is the creation of workforces that are highly segregated, that have a level of exclusivity seldom seen in the U.S. in the past half-century. That is, IT workforces that are not just majority, but have levels over 70, 80, often over 90 percent from one demographic group (in the case of one large IT company, between 94 percent and 100 percent of its workforce at its various worksites are a single demographic group, and other news reports suggest this is not uncommon).
If Biden is elected, said Jenks, “he would reverse the whole thing… I have no doubt the people he would put into [the Department of Homeland Security] will be more than happy to rewrite the regulation to bring in as many foreign workers as possible.”
She continued:
It is just amazing. You have 47 million Americans who have filed unemployed claims, and nobody cares that we have 600,000 H-1Bs working in this country? It is mind-boggling. We’ve got about 1.4 million Americans graduating from college this year. The job market they are going into is nonexistent, yet we have 600,000 H-1Bs working in this country, most of whom have no higher level of credential than a [U.S.] college graduate.
Biden also told NBC News:
On day one, I’m going to send the legislation for an immigration reform bill to Congress to provide a roadmap to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants who contribute so much to this country, including 1.7 million [Asian American and Pacific Island people].
My immigration policy is built around keeping families together, modernizing the immigration system by keeping families [together], unification, and diversity as pillars of our immigration system, which it used to be.
Ending Trump’s cruel, inhumane policy at the border to rip children from their mothers’ arms. Take immediate action to protect [younger illegals] Dreamers — including the more than 100,000 eligible Dreamers from East and South Asia. Rescinding the un-American Muslim ban immediately …
So streaming, streamlining the naturalization process. Make it easier for qualified green card holders to move through his backlog … He ended H1B visas [for] the rest of this year. That will not be in my administration. The people coming on these visas have built this country. And so you ask the other parts of a question? I can’t remember what the other ones were. One was what I’m going to do about immigration, what was the other part? Was that it?








Business Group Complains Trump’s H-1B Reform Is Boosting U.S. Graduates

Immigration
Jon Simon/Feature Photo Service
4:04
If President Donald Trump can push his H-1B reforms into 2021, he will dramatically increase the marketplace power of U.S. college graduates, complains a top manager at the Fortune 500 business group the Conference Board.
“If the [H-1B] suspension continues beyond 2020, recruiting high-quality tech workers could become much more difficult,” wrote Gad Levanon, who heads the group’s Labor Market Institute that has repeatedly recognized that a smaller supply of workers tends to raise wages and salaries. 
Under Forbes‘ headline, “Tech Workers Were Already Hard To Find. The H-1B Visa Suspension Just Made Recruiting Them Even Harder,” Levanon wrote:
Hundreds of thousands of foreigners will no longer be able to attain work in the U.S. as a result.
This halt will deal a one-two punch to employers of computer-related occupations, which includes jobs such as software developers and computer systems analysts. First, people in this field receive the overwhelming majority of H-1B visas. Out of the nearly 400,000 H-1B petitions approved in fiscal year 2019, about two-thirds were in that line of work. Most went to software developers.
Second, computer-related workers are the one group for which the labor market will soon become tight again. When that happens, new foreign workers may be sorely missed.
Computer experts are “likely to regain their hot commodity status in the next year or two,” he wrote.
Levanon’s Jue 26 warnings are good news for Americans, said Kevin Lynn, founder of U.S. Tech Workers. “I would do a jig,” because Levanan is admitting that Trump’s reforms are helping American professionals, he said.
Trump announced the reforms on June 22. His Executive Order blocks the arrival of new H-1Bs this year and ordered a new regulation that would bar CEOs from using the H-1B pipeline to import cheap labor. Currently, 600,000 H-1Bs — and at least 700,000 other visa workers — are used to displace skilled American graduates, to lower career salaries, and to spike stock prices.
But a shortage of foreign workers also would be good for companies because it will shift CEOs’ focus from cost-cutting to quality improvements, Lynn said, adding:
They are now engaged in a race to the bottom, and at the bottom is the end of innovation for America. This [reform] will enable them to pull out of that nosedive, and to put quality first ….  [and] they will get productivity, and so they’ll win because their business will be live longer.
They don’t understand this because they are trying to maximize quarterly profits, trying to appeal [to Wall] Street that loves to see employers cut headcounts, to slash wages …  instead of raising productivity so stocks can rise because they are building better, more innovative products.
U.S. graduates helped Trump deliver the reforms, Lynn said, and now they need to help Trump to preserve and push the reforms:
We know that Trump is under immense pressure to make all kinds of exceptions that would water his [June 22] Executive Order down to meaninglessness.
The next step is up to the productive class. We need to be bombarding the White House with ‘Thank You’ cards,  with Tweets, with emails, for what he has done because this is a first. This is the first time we have gained ground from offshoring and outsourcing.
For the first time since the 1970s, immigration policy is being crafted to help Americans, not immigrants. We need to be thanking Trump, to build up his resolve against the Koch [brothers] wing of the White House and all of the corporations.
“What they want to do is ratchet wages so low that they are comparable to wages in India,” Lynn added.


Follow Neil Munro on Twitter @NeilMunroDC, or email the author at NMunro@Breitbart.com.



Powell Says Economic Outlook Is ‘Extraordinary Uncertain’

In this March 3, 2020 file photo Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference in Washington. Powell says the outlook for the U.S. economy is “extraordinarily uncertain” and the success of the recovery effort will depend in large part on the country’s ability to contain the spread …
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the outlook for the U.S. economy is “extraordinarily uncertain” and the success of the recovery effort will depend in large part on the country’s ability to contain the spread of the coronavirus.
“A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities,” Powell says in testimony he is scheduled to deliver Tuesday in an appearance with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin before the House Financial Services Committee.
In the testimony released Monday by the Fed, Powell repeats a pledge that the central bank will keep interest rates at their current ultra-low levels until it is sure the economy has weathered the pandemic crisis.
His comments come as parts of the country are experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases that have prompted governors to backtrack some of their steps to reopen their states’ economies.
Powell said the re-opening occurred sooner than expected, with hiring and consumer spending both picking up in May.
“While this bounceback in economic activity is welcome, it also presents new challenges, notably, the need to keep the virus in check,” Powell said.
Both Powell and Mnuchin were expected to face questions from lawmakers on topics including how much more support Congress will need to provide to bolster the economy.
That question has gained new urgency as the surge in cases in states including California, Texas and Florida have raised concerns about possible setbacks to efforts to rebound from the downturn that was brought on by measures to control the spread of the virus.
“The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” Powell says in the prepared remarks, stressing that a successful outcome will depend on policy actions taken by all levels of government.
The Trump administration has indicated it would be willing to back further economic support on top of the nearly $3 trillion in support already approved. But Democrats and Republicans are split on the size of any new rescue package and what elements it should contain.
The Fed has slashed its key interest to near zero and pumped $2 trillion into purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities plus providing additional support through 11 special programs to facilitate the functioning of credit markets for businesses and consumers and borrowing by state and local governments.
“We expect to maintain interest rates at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price-stability goals,” Powell said.


Tucker Carlson, now officially the king of cable news, delivers historic challenge to GOP


Tucker Carlson now has the highest ratings of any program in cable news history, adding extra weight to his historic program last night, in which he laid out the peril ahead if Biden wins and a clear strategy for the clueless GOP to follow in order to prevent that from happening.
If you missed Carlson's opening monologue last night, it is embedded below in full, all 10 minutes and 48 seconds of it.

I don't agree with every single point he made, but I still hope the mush-heads who keep the GOP acting like a whipped puppy, pathetically accepting the premises of the Democrats and trying to be accepted as by them and their media adjuncts, take heed.
Here is the peril Carlson sees if Biden wins (transcript via Fox News):
Republicans at all levels could lose this fall. If they do, there will be profound consequences for you. People who supported Donald Trump will be punished, there's definitely no question about that. There's never been an American political party as radical and as angry as the Democrats are now. Imagine them with unlimited power and that's what they plan to get in their first year[.] ... The point is, and it could not be clearer: Non-Democrats in America are in peril.
He invoked his interview with Senator Mike Braun Monday night, in which the Indiana Republican came across very badly in defending his support of a bill to make it easier to personally sue and bankrupt police officers for alleged abuses, a move that would drive every home-owning cop out of his profession.
"Yes, the Republican Party, flawed and infuriating though it often is. The fact remains, the GOP is the only institution still open to the rest of us, to Americans who want to live as they did just 15 years ago, quietly, productively, without being harassed and harangued by self-righteous lunatics who mean them harm. And they do," Carlson said. "If you want to be left alone to do your job and raise your family in this country, you will need a protector. That protector must be the Republican Party. There are no other options, but it must be a very different kind of Republican Party."
He predicted what the Democrats will do if they win the presidency and control of both houses of Congress, as polling indicates they will.  These predictions are based on what Democrats themselves have said.
  • They will immediately amnesty 20 million illegal aliens and get them on the voting rolls, making it impossible for the Republicans to win any more national elections.
  • They will abolish the Senate filibuster rule, allowing a 51-vote majority to pass into law anything they want.
  • They will enlarge and pack the Supreme Court, eliminating the constitutional safeguard against tyranny.
  • They will grant statehood to the District of Columbia, enlarging their Senate majority.
He then laid out the three points that the GOP must provide voters if it is to save the nation from slipping into a one-party tyranny.  
"First is vigorous defense of total equality under the law. We are equal because we are citizens. Every American has precisely the same rights as every other American. Period. That is the promise of America," Carlson said. "It's why millions of people move here for a long time[.]  ... It was obvious, but it no longer is obvious. And there are many who are working in the opposite direction. Republicans must counterbalance this. They must work as hard as they can to make America fair again
"Don't get caught in pointless debates about whether or not this is a racist country," Carlson added. "Clearly it isn't. Prove it by making it less racist by making it a colorblind meritocracy. That's our promise."
Second:
"We are not a free society without that," Carlson said. "This is not simply a debate about the First Amendment and its limits. It's bigger than that and more important. If you can't articulate something, if you're not allowed, you can't think. And that's precisely why authoritarians try to control language. They're trying to control your mind. Republicans should lead the fight against this without shame. Americans have the absolute right to tell the truth. This is not negotiable.
"Nor, by the way, is it a theoretical concern of interest only to intellectuals. Everything depends on it. If you can't think freely, you can't solve problems. Try to build a hydro plant or fly a commercial airplane. If certain categories of thought are off limits to you, it doesn't work. The power grid collapses. Planes crash. Society degrades. No speech means no science, no art, no civilization.
His final point directed the GOP to care for its genuine constituency, the middle class of normal Americans.  I am in agreement with this general point, especially as it rejects GOP deference to Wall Street and globalist interests.  But not only did he disparage the GOP milquetoasts, but he also called out concern over the Russia Hoax (a mere coup d'état attempt) and the coronavirus as "partisan junk food," to the delight of progressives.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson apologized to his viewers for helping to feed them "partisan junk food" from the Republican Party, and said voters should force the GOP to focus on what matters most of all: The American middle class. (snip)
"Instead of improving the lives of their voters, the party feeds them a steady diet of mindless, symbolic victories. Partisan junk food designed to make them feel full even as they waste away. Who cares how many Benghazi hearings we have? We're supposed to care. Why should we?
"How did Peter Strzok's text messages become more important than saving American jobs from foreign nationals who are taking them? It is lunacy. We fall for it every time. And to the extent this show has participated in it, we apologize with deepest sincerity."
Predictably, the Daily Beast was even more scathing.
I strongly disagree with this perspective, for a conspiracy of the intelligence services, FBI, and outgoing Obama administration officials, including the president and vice president, to obstruct the election of and then disrupt and impeach the opposing party candidate and president is the biggest political scandal in our history.  Not at all junk food.
That said, a focus on the middle class is the way for Republicans to go, while letting John Durham do his work.
If the Republic survives in recognizable form, Tucker Carlson's challenge to the Republican Party last night will be recognized for its historic importance as a turning point.  There will be "Tucker Carlson Awards for Journalistic Excellence," just as there are now at least five "Edward R. Murrow Awards"  that invoke the name of the CBS journalist who is credited with calling out and sparking the downfall of Senator Joseph McCarthy for debasing the very important and legitimate cause of anti-communism with the sort of tactics we call "cancel culture" today.
Murrow got all this recognition in no small part because the left-wing media ideologically supported his position, while 90%+ of today's media are hostile to Carlson's point of view.  But there was far more justice to McCarthy's charges of a real communist conspiracy than there is justice to claims that America is systemically racist and that cops are murdering blacks in an epidemic of racial violence.  McCarthy was reckless and used despicable tactics at times, but there were no street mobs using arson and violence as his enforcers.  Unless history is written by leftists after their revolution from above succeeds, Carlson's epic statement last night will be recognized as far braver and far more important than Murrow's McCarthy broadcast 66 years ago, at the dawn of television.  
Math corrected on Murrow's broadcast
Image credit: YouTube screen grab.

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