About those supposedly overflowing morgues in New York City...
I saw the headline that said morgues were running out of space in New York City and I thought: "That makes no sense."
Here's one from Weather.com:
Coronavirus Updates: Report Says Morgues in NYC May Be Near Capacity; White House, Senate Agree on Aid PackageAs of Wednesday, there were more than 30,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 statewide in New York, according to the New York Times. At least 280 people have died, most of them in the city.
Coronavirus deaths cross 192 in New York City; NYU offers medical students early graduation
So far, since the Chinese virus crisis has started, 192 people in New York City have died from the virus.
According to information I could find in a few minutes of research, in 2015, 153,623 people died in NYC from all causes, or 420 per day. In 2015, there were 153,623 deaths, to take but one example. That comes to 420.88 a day with heart disease and cancer as leading causes. So why the hell would NYC be out of morgue space when 192 people have died this month from the virus? One hundred ninety-two divided by the 25 days of this month means about an extra 7 or 8 per day. Even accounting for an exponential rate of deaths, as in a recent day when more than 100 died nationwide, the city still should have capacity given that that could only have occurred over one or two days at most.
Isn't it time the media did some research and told the public the truth instead of inducing a panic? It is more pathetic every day. The agenda is to destroy the economy in order to elect any Democrat instead of telling the truth. Soon we will be back to racism and climate change where NYC will soon be under water.
March 26, 2020
Is the coronavirus less fatal than early predictions suggested?
The coronavirus is an icky disease that takes a cruel toll on the elderly, the sick, and the unlucky. In this modern era, we can outwit many things that once routinely killed people, but the Grim Reaper is still out there, and he'll eventually get all of us. Scary headlines have hinted that the coronavirus is now the Grim Reaper's preferred method.
Media reports have told us that the coronavirus is significantly more deadly than the flu, which annually kills 30,000 to 60,000 Americans. Based on the speed with which it killed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain, it looked as if the American death toll could easily top two million people annually. While that's small potatoes compared to past pandemics (e.g., the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death, Spanish Influenza), it's a staggering toll in modern America. Any actions seemed worthwhile to keep America from turning into a viral slaughterhouse.
But that might not be what's happening.
At the Wall Street Journal (behind a paywall), Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya, two medical professors at Stanford, propose that we're using the wrong math and that we are still missing the numbers we need to do the math correctly. However, by extrapolating from available data, one can argue that the coronavirus's mortality rate is significantly lower than the early estimates.
According to the doctors, "The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases." When calculating the mortality rate, while we know the numerator (the number who have died); we're using the wrong denominator. If the denominator is only those sick enough to get the test in the first place, that small number will return a much higher mortality rate.
The real denominator should be the total number of people who catch this contagious virus. Ideally, we'd already be testing everyone with an antibody test, which would allow us to know how many have already caught this new virus and recovered without incident. However, while antibody tests are in the pipeline, they're not there yet.
Thankfully, there is information that helps us estimate the contagion factor. In Italy, the scariest country of them all, the math says that while Italy is being slammed by the speed of the coronavirus's spread, the ultimate mortality rate won't be as devastating as the early numbers predict:
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That's more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy's case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
The doctors do the same calculation for other defined populations, such as planes that evacuated U.S. citizens from Wuhan (all the passengers were tested), Iceland's population, and NBA players. In the case of the Wuhan evacuees, only 0.9% of the Wuhan travelers tested positive. Extrapolating that data out to Wuhan as a whole would mean that 178,000 Wuhan residents were probably infected, a number 30 times greater than the number China identified as having the virus. Accepting as true China's claim that only 3,287 people died, the real mortality rate would be 1.85% — which is still a high mortality rate, but less than the original 4% claimed.
Considering that in December and January, there was substantial and steady traffic between Wuhan and the U.S., the doctors believe that the coronavirus's high infection rate means that some six million Americans may have been infected by March 9. As of March 23, though, only 499 Americans had died from the coronavirus.
The professors point out that this is a mortality rate of only 0.01%, which is one tenth of the annual flu mortality rate of 0.1%. If more people are infected than with the flu, but only 1/10 the number of people die...well, it's not Armageddon. (For more "not Armageddon" info, check out John Hinderaker's post about virus fatalities.)
Drs. Bendavid and Bhattacharya suggest that the most sensible plan is to focus on vulnerable populations: the elderly and the sick, whether in hospitals, nursing homes, or their own homes. This means isolating them and, because of the virus's rapid spread, temporarily reallocating hospital resources, such as elective procedures.
The doctors close by warning that a universal quarantine, with its massive impact on the economy and, as a byproduct, on Americans' physical and mental well-being, may well be overkill and must, therefore, be reevaluated.
It's a great article with more information than I've given here. If you have access to The Wall Street Journal, try to read what the good doctors have to say.
Curbing China's Dominance of Medical Supplies
Rosemary Gibson is senior advisor at the Hastings Center and a national authority on health care reform. In 2014, she won the highest honor from the American Medical Writers Association. She is an editor for JAMA Internal Medicine. She has received the Lifetime Achievement Award from the American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine.
Speaking to journalist Sharyl Attkisson in an April 23, 2018, interview, Gibson warned: "What happens if we have a Fukushima type event or the trade routes are blocked in the South China Sea? Or if there's a global pandemic? And the United States and virtually every other country in the world is dependent on a few companies in China for the ingredients to make critical antibiotics."
Gibson provided a detailed picture of China’s growing domination of the medical drug and equipment market in her 2018 book China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America’s Dependence on China for Medicine (co-authored by Janardan Prasad Singh).
China is now the global kingpin in the supply of key ingredients for many prescription drugs, over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, and supplements. The Chinese now control most of the active and inactive ingredients for the manufacture of medicine in the world.
Suppose your blood pressure medication is factory-made in Canada and you feel your supply line is safe. Your health is still in jeopardy because Communist China could choose to ban the export of your drug’s active ingredient to Canada.
In China Rx, Gibson and Singh lay out the facts in how drug manufacturing has experienced a paradigm shift over several decades. Communist China has followed an aggressive plan in becoming the global supplier of necessary ingredients for medicines.
Penicillin, a longstanding drug in the fight against bacterial infection, is a prime example of America’s market loss and China’s economic seizure and takeover.
Around 2004, the Chinese government had its national companies dump penicillin ingredients on the global market. Most Western countries, including the U.S., could not compete with their low prices and went bankrupt. Then China issued a major price increase on these important ingredients, thereby cornering the market and making billions.
Although the penicillin that you purchase at your local drugstore may not be manufactured in China in its final form, the keys to its production (active ingredients) are under communist control.
Forget about a vital drug like heparin, the only anticoagulant used in the U.S. for heart surgery and kidney dialysis. What about something simple, like Vitamin C?
China is now the primary supplier for the key ingredients for manufacturing this vitamin in the U.S. and around the world. Chinese companies created an artificial shortage of vitamin C around 2005 by slowing production and exports. American companies filed a class-action suit resulting in a legal battle lasting over eight years. The evidence was strong and convincing against China. The judge ordered China to pay over $160 million in damages to U.S. corporations.
The Seattle Times in June 2007 reported, “In less than a decade, China has captured 90 percent of the U.S. market for vitamin C, driving almost everyone else out of business… Chinese pharmaceutical companies also have taken over much of the world market in the production of antibiotics, analgesics, enzymes and primary amino acids. According to an industry group, China makes 70 percent of the world’s penicillin, 50 percent of its aspirin and 35 percent of its acetaminophen (often sold under the brand name Tylenol), as well as the bulk of vitamins A, B12, C and E.”
In China Rx, Gibson also reveals that China is the main supplier of the active ingredients for acetaminophen and aspirin now used in over 600 prescription and over-the-counter drugs.
How were these warning signs missed for these less-complex drugs, not to mention the more expensive heart and cancer medications?
Who is listening to Rosemary Gibson on Capitol Hill?
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), while chairing a hearing of the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship on March 12, sounded the alarm concerning critical shortages in our drug supply chain, the offshoring of American drug manufacturing for two decades, and now the threat of a global pandemic.
He warned, “The inability to quickly increase the production of key supplies, such as surgical masks, medical gowns, and pharmaceutical drugs limits our ability to mitigate the worst effects of disease in this emerging crisis and in any future pandemic. It is unacceptable that China holds this much leverage over America’s public health and economy, which are both essential components of our national security.”
Thank you, Senator!
Wake Up America -- China is the Pandemic
The Democrats stalled the $2 trillion stimulus for three days, in an attempt at stuffing the initiative with all the leftist policies they knew they could never foist upon the electorate through legislation or the ballot box.
China infected the world to save its reputation and provide for itself enhanced income-producing opportunities -- and is now not only lying about it but also using the death and chaos they caused as a weapon in its quest to rule the world.
The media is backing both plays. Twisted millenarianism is one thing they all have in common.
Parties, countries, and media have priorities and if you die, you die.
You see, to the iniquitous Chinese, the Democrats, and the media, your life, or anyone’s life… or millions of lives, is a mere quibble when ruling the world is the potential prize.
China, “the true sick man of Asia,” seeks to export their diseased system, their fetid ideology, “Mandate of Heaven” strongman rule, and their home-grown pandemic upon free nations the world over. They want a world paying tribute to them and eternally grateful for the “Chinese characteristics” our societies will be required to assume.
On January 18, authorities allowed a communal feast in Wuhan attended by 40,000 families celebrating the Lunar New Year. By the last week of January, seven million people had left Wuhan (population, 11 million) for parts unknown. Now, we know where they went; Google “pandemic deaths.” All this before anyone in the West had even an inkling of the Chinese Virus. The world didn’t know because China withheld the information.
The communist leadership of China, though, knew what they had on their hands. Armed “volunteers” were welding shut the doors of infected people’s homes to enforce their “day late and a yuan short” quarantine while they told the rest of the world there was still nothing to fear.
Communist leaders, to save themselves and China, washed their hands of it and dumped it on the rest of humanity. China, the Harry Lime of nations, was willing to sacrifice western lives for money and their plans of global domination.
China fully intends to profit from a worldwide disaster of their making by selling a lie based on their innocence and benevolence -- taking over more of the world’s supply chain in the process. They’ve told us so.
And, most surprising, the Democrats and American media have been complicit with China in their plan to rule the world. Talk about selling someone the rope for his own hanging.
Having successfully built an economy on technology theft, product dumping, unfair trade practices, currency manipulation, lying, and various other legerdemain, China undoubtedly is feeling its oats (along with eating its pangolins, bats, and monkeys). Aware of the coming worldwide pandemic, because they caused it, the first order of action was to buy up the globe’s supply of surgical masks and pandemic medical supplies.
They needed to act fast, before anyone else became aware of their perfidy and malintent. That’s good business if you’re Scrooge, Mr. Potter, Stalin, Hitler, or Mao -- he’s the guy whose face was on an ornament hanging from President Obama’s Christmas tree, way back when. Maybe someday Xi can hang too.
The die cast, they threatened to withhold America’s medications, throwing America “into the mighty sea of the Coronavirus.” Then they blamed our country for their virus and demanded an apology -- while seeding the cloud with false memes of stalwart Chinese bravery and technological superiority coming to the aid of a humanity beleaguered by a plague they accused American GIs of deliberately causing.
It’s easy to sell lies when you have the Democratic Party and the media of the freest nation on earth willing to prostitute themselves for renminbi and power.
Americans are expected to forget China nationalized an American-owned company producing N95 masks as their navy stopped a container ship bound for the free world with the coveted masks, redirecting it back to China where the cargo was immediately seized for resale… when the price was right. In the future, it shouldn’t surprise anyone were it to become known that China is buying up the world’s supply of chloroquine.
The left controls the media, the academy, and the Democratic Party. They have always had the power to set the narrative. That’s why they hate Trump so much; he can seize any discussion and force talkers and listeners to talk and listen to what he wants them to talk about and listen to.
The Chinese Pandemic is the perfect opportunity for them to retake the initiative and make this about Trump’s failures -- if only people would just die faster. Americans, those selfish bastards, it’s always all about them, if they would just die quickly and in mass quantities, all this could be over, and Trump would be out.
Well, at least they were able to destroy the economy and are doing their levelheaded best to create Chinese primacy.
Wake up, America -- China is our enemy, and now that the media has dispensed with merely being biased and are actively working to aid and abet Chairman Xi in his battle to make America a vassal state paying tribute to the country the elite believe should be running the world, Americans need to understand the war we are in.
We are told, there are no new cases of "Wu-Flu" in China.
How do you get to Carnegie Hall? Take 7th Avenue.
How do you get zero new cases of the Chinese Virus? Stop testing.
Breaking: “Xi, through diligent work and world-class leadership, along with prescient planning & superior Chinese technology, has begun a program to bring back from the dead early Chinese victims of the American pandemic.” CNN 04/01/2020
The Chinese, just like the Democrats, and the media, understand to never let a pandemic go to waste. And the Democrats and the media are just fine with that.
Imagine what they’ll do when they have all the power.
The curious political path of the Chinese virus
In our hyper-politicized world where Democrats and the media frame all events, past and future, against a political backdrop and an upcoming presidential election, why shouldn’t the all-consuming news event of this year, the Chinese virus, be viewed through a similar political lens?
A coincidence is, “A remarkable concurrence of events or circumstances without apparent causal connection.” The viral pandemic, along with the public and governmental reactions are indeed remarkable. In the Trump presidency, there have been a number of events that one might tie into the current viral outbreak.
It’s easy to brush off such coincidences as having no “apparent casual connection,” yet upon closer scrutiny, they may be closely connected. As the mysterious and enigmatic Q would say, “Do you believe in coincidences?”
The Q group, a small military intelligence team working in the shadows with and for the president, frequently points out such coincidences from their team’s birdseye view. And did so recently. Let’s start with the virus itself.
For those who have observed the incessant effort by the deep state and the left to destroy the Trump presidency, the events of the past few months fall into a well-established pattern.
SARS coronavirus was first identified in 2003 after infecting humans in southern China in 2002. A microbiology review paper published in 2007 concluded, “Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination, which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks” With the Chinese cultural practice of wet markets, mixing the viral laden secretions of multiple exotic wild animals, “The reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories” was a “time bomb” and “the need for preparedness should not be ignored.”
The time bomb warning fell on deaf ears. Or was someone actually listening and preparing? A time bomb sits idly until activated. Once the fuse is lit, the bomb will explode at a predetermined time in the future.
An interesting coincidence is that this virus started in Wuhan, China which just so happens to be the home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China’s only level 4 biosafety lab.
Suggesting that the virus originated in the lab is called a conspiracy theory, debunked by a “consensus of scientists.” As a reminder, other consenses of scientists tell us President Trump is mentally ill, that man-made global warming is destroying the planet, and that Saddam Hussein had WMDs.
The virus could have developed naturally within the wet markets, according to experts who are adamant that: “Humans could have never dreamed this up.” Could those same wet market conditions be replicated in a laboratory, producing similar results? Given Chinese secrecy we may never know for sure.
Beyond the science is the politics. The timing of events is curious when looking at the Trump presidency and upcoming election. The Chinese coronavirus was first noted in in China in December 2019. What was happening politically at that time in the U.S.?
“All in all, it was an incredible victory for the Chinese government. Feinstein has done more for Red China than other any serving U.S. politician. “ Trevor Loudon
“All in all, it was an incredible victory for the Chinese government. Feinstein has done more for Red China than other any serving U.S. politician. “ Trevor Loudon