AMERICA'S STAGGERING JOBLESS NUMBERS - JOE BIDEN'S PROMISE OF AMNESTY OR CONTINUED NONENFORCEMENT

New DHS Report Paints Picture of Biden’s Immigration Challenges

Lax immigration enforcement under Biden could bring about a new border crisis

 
 
 

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Charles Fain Lehman - JANUARY 8, 2021 5:00 AM

New data from the Department of Homeland Security capture the changing face of illegal immigration, revealing dramatic shifts that will shape President-elect Joe Biden's hopes for comprehensive immigration reform.

The report from the Office of Immigration Statistics captures a transition as the share of lone adults, particularly from Mexico, declined, replaced by children and adults traveling with them from the "northern triangle" countries of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. That change in turn has led to a dramatic decline in the number of individuals reported, as members of the latter group rely on more accommodative legal protections to remain in the country far longer than the former.

The report also shows that individuals who were not detained after apprehension are much more likely to still be in the country. That's a sign, acting deputy homeland security director Ken Cuccinelli wrote, that "catch and release" policies do not work.

That such policies, including an expansion of the use of "alternatives to detention," are top of the Biden immigration agenda augurs poorly for the incoming president. The challenges that changing migration patterns posed to the Obama and Trump administrations are unlikely to go away under Biden, teeing up yet another border crisis and ensuing political meltdown.

The report combines data from myriad sources to track the "lifecycle" of would-be entrants apprehended over the past five years at the southwestern border, providing information on the immigration status of some 3.5 million apprehensions. Its coverage bookends two major migrant crises: a surge of unaccompanied minors in 2014, and a much larger surge of both families and unaccompanied kids in late 2018 and early 2019.

These two crises are part of the changing face of migration. Whereas in the period of 2000 to 2004, 97 percent of all those apprehended were Mexicans—many of them lone adults seeking work—by 2019 that share had dropped to just 24 percent. By contrast, arrivals from the "northern triangle" countries rose from 44 percent of apprehensions in 2014 to 64 percent in 2019, amid the second crisis. Many of these individuals were children, often quite young, and adults traveling with them, claiming to be their family members.

Those demographic differences strongly determine what happens to an individual after he or she is apprehended. Single adults are quickly deported, with 78 percent of those apprehended over the preceding five years repatriated by Q2 2020. But family arrivals and children are not—just 32 percent of the latter, and only 11 percent of the former, had their cases resolved as of Q2 2020.

Such migration is likely to rise under Biden, who has promised to substantially reduce immigration enforcement and intends to pursue an amnesty, both of which could incentivize further arrivals. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show that apprehensions at the border rose year-on-year in the immediate lead-up to and aftermath of Biden's election, which may indicate a rising tide of migrants eager to take advantage of a more lax immigration regime.

Those arrivals will enjoy the same preexisting immigration challenges that the Center for Immigration Studies' Andrew Arthur identified as driving the low number of deportations for families and children. "Loopholes" in federal immigration law incentivize the bringing of children from noncontiguous countries and delay almost indefinitely their immigration court process.

In particular, abuse of the asylum system, and of provisions which require the release from detention of minors and their guardians, results in large populations who arrive, are released, and never show up for subsequent immigration processing. According to the report, just 1 percent of those detained had unexecuted removal orders, while 55 percent of those released were still listed as unresolved.

The reason for this dynamic is not that those who arrive at the southwestern border have reasonable claims to be asylees: Just 14 percent of initial applicants are eventually granted asylum. Similarly, among those cases resolved, roughly 13.6 percent were granted some relief, while the rest were summarily deported.

In other words, the report indicates a large and persistent challenge to the U.S. immigration system, with an ever-growing pool of illegal entrants and an ever-expanding backlog of immigration court cases jamming up the process of legal immigration and the limited resources of DHS.

That dynamic is likely to continue, and even expand, under the Biden DHS. Biden's promised undoing of many of President Donald Trump's tougher enforcement tools, including the "Remain in Mexico" policy and the limitation of "reasonable fear" asylum claims, could exacerbate the inflow of people driven by the "loopholes" Arthur and Cuccinelli identify. So too could the deployment of "alternatives to detention," which Cuccinelli specifically singled out as problematic.

The Biden team, likely spooked by the surging apprehension numbers, has signaled that it will slow-roll the undoing of Trump's immigration agenda. But it has not promised any of the "targeted legislative fixes" endorsed by Cuccinelli in his letter, leaving in place the adverse incentives. That could lead to another humanitarian crisis at the southwestern border—a ticking time bomb Biden's team has evinced little interest in defusing.

New weekly jobless claims at 797,000 amid signs of US economic slowdown

Shannon Jones

10 hours ago

New first-time claims for unemployment benefits remained at historically high levels last week following the passage by Congress of a temporary $300 weekly addition to state jobless benefits and an absurdly inadequate one-time $600 stimulus payment.

There were 787,000 new claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending January 2, only a slight drop from the previous week and still an extremely high number by previous standards. It demonstrates the continuing hardship and suffering for millions of American workers as hospitals are overcrowded with COVID cases and the pandemic death toll rises.

Hundreds of people wait in line for bags of groceries at a food pantry at St. Mary’s Church in Waltham, Mass. earlier this year. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Only a few states have started distributing the additional $300 unemployment payments, while others, such as Ohio, say they are waiting for additional “guidance.” The supplement will only last for 11 weeks, ending in March, long before the COVID-19 pandemic will be contained.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment assistance fell 125,000 to 5.1 million last week. And there was also a decline in the number receiving extended unemployment benefits. However, the drop was likely related to the lapsing of the previous federal unemployment extension on December 26.

For a similar reason new applications for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell as well to around 160,000 from 310,000 the previous week. The program provides assistance to those not normally covered by regular unemployment benefits such as self-employed and independent contractors. It followed a nearly week-long lapse in benefits as Trump and Congress engaged in parliamentary theatrics. As a result there was evident confusion among potential claimants over whether or not they were eligible.

The result was a further blow at millions of workers already behind on rent and other critical payments. A number of states, such as Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio and Wyoming, did not report any new claim data for the PUA program at all during the week ending January 2.

A US Labor Department report due out Friday is expected to show the unemployment rate increased to 6.8 percent after months of declines. However that number is itself a gross understatement. It does not include workers employed part time who want full time work and doesn’t include “discouraged workers” who have dropped out of the labor market altogether. According to Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, some 4 million workers employed before the pandemic have left the labor force. If those were counted, the actual unemployment rate would be 9.5 percent.

The biggest employment declines in December were in businesses such as restaurants, hotels and retail stores that depend on face-to-face interaction with customers. These businesses are not likely to recover until after the pandemic ends.

Since March, when the pandemic forced widespread lockdowns, new weekly unemployment claims have been running at historically unprecedented levels. Over 73 million new claims for benefits have been filed during this period. The threat of eviction looms for millions, while 50 million face food insecurity.

The hunger crisis is being exacerbated by a global rise in food prices, which have gone up 18 percent since May even as incomes decline. Federal data analyzed by Northwestern University found that overall food insecurity has doubled, and child food insecurity has tripled during the pandemic. Nationwide, seven percent of families reported receiving free food in the previous week.

Regardless, the stock market surge continued on Thursday despite record deaths due to COVID and the storming of the US Capitol by fascist supporters of President Donald Trump. Tech stocks climbed to record highs led by electric vehicle maker Tesla, which was up five percent. Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO of Tesla, is now the richest man in the world based on his company’s stock rise, with a net worth of $187 billion, edging out Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. Tesla’s huge stock valuation is largely based on speculation, given that the carmaker delivered less than 500,000 vehicles in 2020.

After months of increased hiring the US economy is showing signs of a slowdown. The private payroll processor ADP reported that the private sector cut 123,000 jobs in December. It was the first monthly decline since April 2020. Consumer spending also declined in November for the first time in seven months as well as household income. According to JP Morgan Chase credit card and debit card purchases were down 6 percent in December from last year compared to down two percent year on year in October.

Some states reported a significant spike in new unemployment claims. New filings in Michigan rose to near 29,033, up from 19,818 the prior week. Due to cuts enacted by the state legislature those filing after January 1 will only be eligible for 20 weeks of unemployment benefits, not 26 as previously was the case. Another 6,000 in Michigan filed for PUA benefits the week ending January 2 and 304,080 Michigan workers remained on PUA benefits through December 19.

A number of other states showed increases of more than 10,000 new unemployment claims, including Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Virginia and Texas.

In spite of unprecedented economic hardship, California is suspending unemployment payments on 1.4 million claims due to allegations of fraud. This comes at a time when the state has failed to process and pay out benefits. There were a reported 777,760 unemployment claims in California for the week ending December 30. That was a 32,124 increase over the previous week’s total.

According to a report in the Guardian, nearly every US state has failed to meet federal standards that require getting unemployment benefits to claimants within three weeks. It cites the horror story of Eugene Williams of Daytona Beach, Florida, who lost his job with a food distributor near the start of the pandemic. He received benefits up until June when he accidentally entered “return to work” while verifying his claim.

He has not been able to reactivate his benefits since that time and has suffered severe deprivation as a result. “I’m sleeping in my car and in the next few weeks I’ll be without a phone,” said Williams. He has been unable to find new employment and has had to rely on charities for food assistance. “It is impossible to get a hold of the unemployment department. ... all I’m hearing is ‘be patient.’ Isn’t 31 weeks patient enough?”

The increasing economic desperation of millions of workers stands in sharp contrast to the enrichment of the financial oligarchy, who have been the recipients of trillions of dollars in federal handouts. This is a symptom of a deeply unjust and dysfunctional capitalist system that prioritizes private profit over human need. The answer is socialism, the control of production by the working class, the producers, on a rational and planned basis in the interest of the common good. 

U.S. Economy Lost 140,000 Jobs in December, Unemployment Unchanged at 6.7%

JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

JOHN CARNEY

8 Jan 2021913

4:45

The U.S. economy shed 140,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent, according to data released Friday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast an addition of 50,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 6.8 percent.

“The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic,” the Labor Department said.

Uncertainty about control of the Senate—and, to a lesser extent, the outcome of President Donald Trump’s attempts to continue to contest the presidential election—may also have weighed on the labor market in December. Studies have shown that policy uncertainty can discourage business spending, particularly in less competitive markets. It’s likely that the shutdowns and pandemic have made many areas of the economy less competitive over the past year.

Private sector jobs fell by 95,000 in December. The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 61.5 percent and the total number of unemployed held steady at 10.7 million, about twice the number of unemployed persons before the pandemic.

Manufacturing added 38,000, far more than expected. Throughout the pandemic, the manufacturing sector has shown a high level of resiliency, a vindication of President Trump’s policy focus on strengthening this part of the economy. Still, the sector now employs over a half-million fewer workers than it did prior to the pandemic.

Construction added 51,000 in December, boosted by the boom in housing that has accompanied the lockdowns and rise in shootings and killings in many U.S. cities.  Employment in specialty residential contractors and residential construction is one of the few sectors of the economy that employ more workers than before the pandemic.

The biggest jobs losses came in leisure and hospitality, where employment declined by 498,000, with three-quarters of the decrease in bars and restaurants. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry fell by 92,000 and dropped in the accommodation industry by 24,000. Since February, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 3.9 million, or 23.2 percent.

Employment in private education decreased by 63,000 in December. Employment in the industry is down by 450,000 since February.

Government employment fell by 45,000 in December thanks to a decline in local and state government employment. Federal government employment grew by 6,000. Outside of education, local government employment fell by 32,000.  State government education lost 20,000 jobs. Since February, total government employment overall is down by 1.3 million.

The economy has added around 12.2 million jobs in the past eight months, a record-breaking pace after the unprecedented collapse in employment as lockdowns took hold in March and April. The increase in the ranks of employed workers shows that companies ramped up hiring as the economy reopened and consumers came back to stores, restaurants, and other businesses that had been shuttered this spring. Despite the gains, total employment in December was lower than its February level, highlighting just how deep the pandemic cut into what had been the strongest jobs markets in decades.

Hiring slowed in November and layoffs picked back up as infections, hospitalizations, and deaths surged. Many state and local governments around the country announced new restrictions on business, travel, dining, and other activities that have once again suppressed demand and discouraged growth in employment. Some businesses that held on through the first wave of shutdowns have not been able to stay in business in the second wave and much of the government aid made available earlier last year was no longer offered in December.

And even throughout the reopening layoffs have been extremely elevated, indicating that the pandemic’s effects are still ravaging the economy. A separate report on Thursday showed that 787,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits in the prior week and 790,000 in the week before that.  Jobless claims can be volatile week to week so many economists prefer to look at the four-week average. This rose to 818,750, a decrease of 18,750 from the previous week’s upwardly revised level.