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Immigration reform could be dilemma
Support it or oppose it, Dems risk voter fallout
by Erin Kelly - Mar. 15, 2010 12:00 AM
Republic Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON - Democrats' failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform could hurt them with Latino voters in November's congressional elections, leaders of immigrant-rights groups warn.
But support for an immigration bill could come with its own political cost from voters on the other side of the issue, leaving lawmakers no easy choices.
"For most elected officials, it's a no-win situation," said John Garcia, a political-science professor at the University of Arizona. "It's just such a volatile and divisive issue."
Thousands of immigration-reform activists from across the nation - including some from Arizona - are expected to march on Washington, D.C., on Sunday to demand action from the Obama administration and the Democrat-led Congress.
If they don't get it, they say, they are unlikely to switch their allegiance to Republicans, most of whom oppose any plan that clears the way for illegal immigrants to become citizens.
But disillusionment with Democrats could instead lead Latino voters to stay home on Election Day, a move that strategists say could affect Arizona's three vulnerable Democratic House members: Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick, Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesmen have cited a 2 to 4 percent increase in the Hispanic population in those congressional districts as a key factor that could boost the incumbents' chances for re-election if more Latinos vote.
"It is showdown time," activist Emma Lozano said at a recent Capitol Hill news conference called by members of the Fair Immigration Reform Movement. "If you (Democratic leaders) don't keep your promises, we will leave you where we found you. You have the power. You must use it, or you will lose it."
Such threats may ring hollow to Democrats in swing districts, who likely have more to lose this year from supporting immigration reform than from ignoring it, political analysts say.
"The greater risk is turning out White (non-Hispanic) voters against you," said Rodolfo Espino, a political scientist at Arizona State University. "It just goes to the basic rule of who votes, especially in a non-presidential year. It tends to be White voters, high-socioeconomic-status voters. So a perennial problem that these Hispanic advocacy groups face is making these threats credible."
Democrats face counter-threats from groups that oppose any legislation that would allow illegal immigrants to become citizens.
"If they support these bills and they're on the ballot in November, they're goners," said William Gheen, president of Americans for Legal Immigration Political Action Committee.
Gheen's group is joining with the conservative "tea party" movement to counter the March 21 march by Hispanic rights' groups with April 15 protests throughout the country against amnesty for illegal immigrants.
"Every candidate and member of Congress that is either dumb enough or out of touch with their constituents enough to go around campaigning for amnesty, please do so," Gheen said. "It will help us identify you and defeat you."
In the midst of these dueling threats, President Barack Obama and senior White House officials have been holding meetings with immigrant-rights groups and members of Congress to try to determine whether a bipartisan bill has a chance of passing this year.
"The president's commitment to fixing our broken immigration system remains unwavering, and he continues to hope for bipartisan leadership on legislation," said White House spokesman Adam Abrams.
The president recently met with Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who have been working for months to craft what they believe is a centrist bill to beef up enforcement of immigration laws while creating a path to citizenship for the estimated 10 million to 12 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.
The bill, which has not yet been introduced, reportedly includes the creation of a biometric identification card containing fingerprints or handprints that would ensure that employers do not hire illegal immigrants.
The legislation also would allow immigrants now in the country illegally to become citizens if they register with the government, pay taxes and a fine and wait their turn. If they fail to meet those requirements, they would face immediate deportation.
The bill seems to meet Obama's main goals.
"The president believes we must continue to strengthen enforcement on our borders and crack down on employers who exploit undocumented workers to undercut American workers," Abrams said. "And he believes we must resolve the status of the 12 million people who are here illegally - that they should have to register, pay a penalty for breaking the law and meet other obligations of legal immigrants such as paying taxes, or leave the country."
However, Graham has said he is not willing to move ahead with the bill unless another Senate Republican joins him as a sponsor. So far, none has stepped forward.
Among the no-shows: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who led bipartisan efforts at reform in the past but has since shied away from the issue amid criticism from conservatives.
The issue's divisiveness means Congress is unlikely to pass a reform bill before the election, despite prodding from the president, UA's Garcia said.
Democrats cannot escape the issue forever. They know that the Latino voters who helped elect Obama in 2008 will be important in the 2012 presidential race and beyond as their numbers continue to grow, analysts say.
"Threats by Hispanic groups to withhold votes may not mean much this year, but that will surely change as the population trends continue," ASU's Espino said.
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