THE LOOMING BIDEN DEPRESSION - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DUMPS

 

Consumer Expectations Crashed in November Despite Vaccine News

Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images

JOHN CARNEY

25 Nov 202010

2:33

The outlook of American consumers dimmed considerably in November as Americans adjusted to the likelihood of a Biden presidency and the surge in coronavirus infections.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 76.9, six percent below the October reading and 20.6 percent below the year-earlier level.

The final November headline reading was largely in line with the preliminary figure released midmonth. But that steadiness masks big changes in the components of the index.

The index of expectations plummeted 11 percent to 70.5, indicating less optimism about the year ahead. News of the effectiveness of multiple vaccines did not improve expectations.

“Importantly, the November data were less optimistic than last month due to the resurgence in covid infections and deaths as well as partisan shifts due to the outcome of the presidential election,” said Richard Curtin, the chief economist of the survey.

The decline in expectations was somewhat offset by a rise in the assessment of the current situation. A big part of the decline was driven by Republicans worried about the economic future during a Biden presidency.

“For the first time since Trump entered office, Democrats rather than Republicans held a more optimistic economic outlook,” Curtin said.

Partisan divide in expectations

Despite the surge in Democratic optimism, the prospect of a Biden presidency has not driven his supporters to be anywhere near as optimistic as Trump’s were during his presidency. Similarly, Republicans are not as pessimistic as the Democrats have been for most of the Trump era.

Democrats are far more likely to say the coronavirus has had a major impact on their lives, according to the survey. Just 36 percent of Republicans say the virus has changed their lives to a great extent, compared with 59 percent of Democrats.

“In the months ahead, if infections and deaths rise as anticipated, further declines in optimism are likely,” Curtin said. “Widespread closures would incur a heavy toll on the entire economy and cause escalating hardships among some households.”

Curtin argues that Congress should not wait until the new administration takes over, although that seems increasingly likely.

“A delay in federal aid until next year would allow great harm and permanent damage to occur to many firms, local governments, and households,” Curtin said.

OPEN BORDERS AND A NATION FLOODED WITH ‘CHEAP’ LABOR

Former Vice President Joe Biden will nominate Alejandro Mayorkas to run the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), despite his role in creating huge Latin American migration and his involvement in several visas-for-sale scandals.

https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2020/11/biden-keeps-promise-to-narcomex-picks.html

Joe Biden’s Amnesty is at hand. But will it resolve America’s staggering jobless, homeless and housing crisis or merely put more money into Kleptocracy he has long served?

The Flourishing Life of a Privileged Undocumented Immigrant

 

Hating America while it hands you the American Dream.

https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2020/11/joe-bidens-amnesty-profile-of-daca.html

Very recently, Villavicencio was a DACA recipient and received a green card. She admits she owns and lives in a huge apartment.

But as far as she is concerned, America is not a nice place. It is a “fucking racist country.” 

BIDEN PARTNERS WITH MEXICO TO ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER MASSIVE MEX INVASION OF DEM VOTING ILLEGALS.

https://mexicanoccupation.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-biden-amnesty-and-mexicos-planned.html

"Mexican president candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador called for mass immigration to the United States, declaring it a "human right". We will defend all the (Mexican) invaders in the American," Obrador said, adding that immigrants "must leave their towns and find a life, job, welfare, and free medical in the United States."

"Fox’s Tucker Carlson noted Thursday that Obrador has previously proposed granting AMNESTY TO MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS. “America is now Mexico’s social safety net, and that’s a very good deal for the Mexican ruling class,” Carlson added."

"Many Americans forget is that our country is located against a socialist failed state that is promising to descend even further into chaos – not California, the other one. And the Mexicans, having reached the bottom of the hole they have dug for themselves, just chose to keep digging by electing a new leftist presidente who wants to surrender to the cartels and who thinks that Mexicans have some sort of “human right” to sneak into the U.S. and demographically reconquer it." KURT SCHLICHTER

 

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Jump to 778,000

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

JOHN CARNEY

25 Nov 2020385

3:34

New weekly jobless claims jumped up to 778,000 in the week ended November 21, the Department of Labor said Thursday.

Economists had expected jobless claims to fall t0 730,000 from the 742,000 initially reported a week ago. The previous week’s level was revised up by 6,000 to 748,000.

This is the second week of claims following the U.S. presidential election and may be viewed as a proxy for business reaction to the election. It is also the second consecutive week of rising claims.

Jobless claims—which are a proxy for layoffs—remain at extremely high levels. Prior to the pandemic, the highest level of claims was 695,000 hit in October of 1982. In March of 2009, at the depths of the financial crisis recession, jobless claims peaked at 665,000.

Even when the economy is creating a lot of demand for workers, many businesses will shed employees as they adjust to market conditions. But in a high-pressure labor market, those employees quickly find jobs and many never show up on the employment rolls. What appears to be happening now is that many workers who lose their jobs cannot quickly find replacement work and are forced to apply for benefits.

Claims hit a record 6.87 million for the week of March 27, more than ten times the previous record. Through spring and early summer, each subsequent week had seen claims decline. But in late July, the labor market appeared to stall and claims hovered around one million throughout August, a level so high it was never recorded before the pandemic struck. Claims moved down again in September and hade made slow, if steady, progress until the election.

New restrictions on businesses aimed at stemming the resurgence of coronavirus are likely contributing to the rise in layoffs. Some states and cities have imposed new curfews and discouraged people from leaving home for non-essential reasons.

Claims can be volatile so economists like to look at the four-week average for a better view of the health of the labor market. This jumped by 5,000 to 748,500 for the week ended November 21.

Continuing claims—those made after the initial filing, representing ongoing unemployment—get reported with a week’s lag. For the week ended November 7, these came in at 6,071,000, a decrease of 299,000. Although continuing claims have continued to decline, the pace of the decline slowed from the prior week’s 429,000 drop off. This second-derivative measure indicates that the labor market is softening. The four-week moving average for continuing claims fell to 6,615,000, a decrease of 438,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This too represents a slower pace of improvement compared with the previous week.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 7 were in California (7.9), Hawaii (7.1), Nevada (6.9), the Virgin Islands (6.9), Alaska (6.3), Massachusetts (6.1), Illinois (5.9), Georgia (5.8), District of Columbia (5.6), and New Mexico (5.5)