Amid spin, Joe Biden's polling indicators are crumbling
The press is hailing Joe Biden's approval numbers as he reaches the first 100 days in office.
PJMedia, in two posts by Stephen Kruizer and Stacey Lennox, has curated some choice headlines seen on Twitter and beyond that show it, such as these:
Biden receives positive marks at 100 days - CBS News poll -CBS News
Biden's 100 days: Low-end approval, yet strong marks on pandemic response: POLL -ABC News
...and this gushy televised exchange:
Harris: We have newly released numbers this morning from an ABC News/Washington Post poll. Look at this. Fifty-two percent of Americans approve of Joe Biden's work in office as he approaches the 100-day mark. That is ten points higher than Donald Trump at this point in his presidency, but 17 points lower than Barack Obama. So, let's bring in our ABC News political director, Rick Klein. Rick, good morning. What's your take on these top-line numbers from the poll?
Klein: Dan, Biden's honeymoon appears to be ending, if it was even there in the first place. What's so striking here is, you can at the same time say President Biden is in so much stronger position than his predecessor, but so much weaker than almost everyone else that we've seen at this point in a presidency. And the easiest culprit to blame here is partisanship.
The broad numbers themselves, from multiple polls, can be snapshotted as in this RealClearPolitics sidebar:
That can be read here.
The short answer to all this gushing is that the press is biased and spinning for Biden.
The innards of these polls actually show a lot of trouble.
For one thing, independent support for Biden is falling. RedState points out that the big weak spot for Biden among independents is his atrocious handling of the border. The Fox News poll's question about whether security is better or worse or the same at the border showed that 46% of voters felt that border security in 2021 is worse than two years ago, a sharp spike from the 17% who said that in 2018. Independents accounted for much of that fall.
For another, these pollsters oversampled Democrats. Most showed large margins of registered Democrats sampled that didn't coincide with the percentages of voters who voted from both parties in 2020. That breakdown should have been 36% registered Republicans and 37% registered Democrats. It wasn't. The pollsters polled as if Democrats amounted to as much as 50% of the majority.
NewsBusters pointed out that with all this oversampling of Democrats to rig the results, they still didn't get the rosy report they wanted, which suggests things could be very bad, indeed.
"Partisanship" was blamed for the trouble by at least one television pundit, which could mean several things.
One, Biden is the most partisan president in history, governing as a radical far-left Corbynite, seeking to dismantle the Constitution, the public fisc, the Courts, America's energy independence, and the voting system itself. That's going down particularly badly among independents, but also includes Republicans.
Two, Biden has pledged "unity" and done exactly the opposite of what he got the public to focus on. He's initiated transgender bathrooms, dismantled the border, triggered a border surge, introduced wokester education, fomented racial hate, and attempted to smear any state attempting reasonable measures to ensure voter rights and ballot integrity. All of those things are unpopular except among the radical left crazies.
A third piece of news is related to this partisanship/unity issue that comes via email from Raghavan Mayur and his TechnoMetrica research firm, whose IBD/TIPP poll is America's most accurate pollster.
I don't see it up yet, so I will paste in some regarding his newly released TIPP Unity Index and summarize. He writes:
The TIPP Unity Index registered a somber reading of 37.8, reflecting the country's high level of division in April.
A whopping 61 percent believe the country is divided, while only 33 percent believe it is united.
The Unity Index
TechnoMetrica, in its tradition of out-of-box thinking, developed the Unity Index, a barometer of the country's unity, based on the question:
In general, would you say the United States is Very United, Somewhat United, Not Very United, or Not At All United?
He found this:
In April, thirty of the 36 demographic groups we track believe the country is divided.
The demographic groups that believe the country is united are in the 25 to 44 age group, urban residents, those earning $75K or more, Democrats, and those with a college degree or higher.
On the other end, the groups that feel extreme division in the country are 65 or older, rural residents, independents, some college education, and Republicans.
Where was the discord highest? You guessed it: on presidential leadership, where the standard deviation came in at 12.4. Other issues above the mean were "direction of country," "morals and ethics," and "standing in the world." The areas below the mean were "national outlook," "economic outlook," "quality of life," and "financial stress."
Where's the problem again? Looking at you, Joe Biden.
That can't be good news for the worst president within memory. Media lapdogs may sing Joe's praises, but the devil is right there in the details for Joe.
Poll: Biden Approval Lowest of Any Modern President, Sans Trump and Ford
Democrat President Joe Biden’s approval rating is the lowest of any modern president at this point in his presidency, excluding former Presidents Donald Trump and Gerald Ford.
Biden, who approaches the 100-day mark of his official tenure with 52 percent approval, according to the Washington Post’s latest survey, surpasses only Trump and Ford in approval ratings at a similar mark in the beginning of a president’s term.
Former Presidents Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all performed better at their 100-day marks. Only Trump, who was a highly controversial president, and Ford — who took over the job after Nixon resigned due to the Watergate scandal and was not elected into the office — had lower approval ratings at the end of their first 100 days.
New WP poll: At 100 days, Biden job approval at 52 percent. Other than Trump, that's lowest of any president at 100 days since Gerald Ford. Taking out Ford and Trump, it's lowest of any president in modern polling era. https://t.co/DOq211pJYj pic.twitter.com/NHDoCilMTM
— Byron York (@ByronYork) April 25, 2021
The Washington Post-ABC News poll, taken April 18 to April 21, surveyed 1,007 American adults and the poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error.
Only 34 percent strongly approved of Biden’s performance as president, while another 18 percent somewhat approved of his performance — for a net approval rating of 52 percent. On the other side — for a net disapproval rating of 42 percent — far more people, 35 percent, strongly disapproved of Biden’s performance than the 7 percent who somewhat disapproved.
The WaPo-ABC poll has been in place for many years, dating back to the beginning of the Reagan administration, tracking presidents’ approval ratings. By comparison, during this survey’s existence, only Trump fared worse than Biden — Trump had 42 percent approval at this mark in his term as president — whereas the immediate two predecessors, Obama and Bush, enjoyed 69 percent and 63 percent respective net approval ratings. Clinton, who won the White House with only 43 percent of the popular vote in an unusual year in which three viable candidates including the then-incumbent president the elder Bush and Ross Perot ran, even had a higher rating at 59 percent this far into his presidency.
The elder Bush, at 71 percent, and Reagan, at 73 percent, also enjoyed much higher approval ratings after their first 100 days than Biden.
Before the WaPo-ABC poll began, presidential approval rating data from Gallup shows every other president except Ford also had higher approval ratings than Biden after 100 days. Carter, at this point in his one-term presidency, was at 63 percent. Nixon, another lightning rod controversial president and the only one in American history to resign, was at 61 percent at this stage of his presidency. Before Nixon, presidents were even more popular, with Johnson at 79 percent, Kennedy at 83 percent, Eisenhower at 73 percent, and Truman at 87 percent after their first 100 days.
Despite the clear trepidation about him among the American public, the establishment media has by and large lined up behind Biden. A study from the Media Research Center shows Biden has received 59 percent positive press during the beginning of his administration, whereas Trump received 89 percent negative coverage during the beginning of his presidency.
The public, in this WaPo-ABC survey, has another warning for Biden as he continues to pursue his agenda. Sixty percent said they want Biden to try to work with Republicans on Capitol Hill “by making major changes to his proposals,” whereas only 30 percent said they want Biden to “try to enact proposals without major changes” and 10 percent said they have no opinion.
Biden campaigned on being a president who would compromise and work with Republicans, but during his presidency he has completely failed on that front so far. His first major legislative package, a $1.9 trillion coronavirus spending plan, only won Democrat support in Congress. Zero Republicans voted for the plan.
Biden seems poised to go a similar route on his so-called “infrastructure” plan. While Republicans have offered alternatives and to negotiate, the Biden team has proposed a multi-trillion dollar plan filled with many things that do not qualify as infrastructure. That has turned Republicans off, and it remains to be seen if Biden will agree to major changes, as the public has indicated it wants, and move more to the middle.
Biden will undoubtedly address all of this and more this coming week when he delivers his first address to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday night. Biden will give a speech to the bicameral gathering on Capitol Hill, similar to a State of the Union address but, since it is his first year in office, it is not technically such an address.
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