More than half, 56 percent, of Republican voters believe that former President Donald Trump should either probably or definitely run for president again in 2024, according to a Wednesday Politico-Morning Consult poll.
© Photo by Pete Marovich - Pool/Getty Images/Getty Former President Donald Trump is shown above speaking to supporters at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force One on January 20, 2021. More than half of Republican voters believe he would run for president again in 2024.Just over a third of Republicans, 36 percent, however, believe he should not run again.
Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene echoed the poll's findings in a January 20 tweet.
She said that the "vast majority" of Republicans "are no longer loyal to the GOP," but that their "loyalty now lies with Donald J. Trump."
In his final remarks as president before leaving Washington, D.C., on January 20, Trump said "we will see you soon" and "we will be back in some form."
According to the U.S. Constitution, a president can't serve more than two terms of four years each. However, the Constitution doesn't prohibit an individual from serving non-consecutive terms as president.
Former President Grover Cleveland served two non-consecutive terms as the 22nd and 24th president from 1885 to 1889 and 1893 to 1897.
The poll also revealed that Republican and Republican-leaning Independent voters are split between support for the Republican Party and the rumored Patriot Party.
Of those surveyed, 33 percent said they are more interested in being a member of the Republican Party, while 30 percent responded in favor of the Patriot Party; 11 percent of those polled said they don't have an interest in either party.
Trump has entertained the idea of a third political party, called the Patriot Party, in recent weeks, according to The Washington Post.
Multiple people in Trump's orbit told the Post that the former president said the third-party threat gives him leverage to prevent Republican senators from voting to convict him during the Senate impeachment trial.
The House of Representatives impeached Trump earlier this month for his role in inciting the Capitol riot, which left five dead.
Senate leadership, however, agreed to delay Trump's impeachment trial until the week of February 8 to allow President Joe Biden time to start his legislative agenda and legal teams space to prepare their arguments.
Senate Democrats are expected to vote for Trump's impeachment, but at least 17 Republicans would need to join them to convict the former president. If Trump is convicted, he would not be able to run for office again.
Despite his impeachment, the former president announced the opening of the Office of the Former President on Monday.
The office located in Palm Beach County, Florida, and is tasked with overseeing Trump's post-presidency life.
"The office will be responsible for managing President Trump's correspondence, public statements, appearances, and official activities to advance the interest of the United States and to carry on the agenda of the Trump administration through advocacy, organization and public activism," the office said in a statement.
"President Trump will always and forever be a champion for the American people," the statement added.
Newsweek reached out to Trump's office, but didn't hear back in time for publication.
As the impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump approaches, federal officials are investigating threats to attack or kill members of Congress. This comes in the wake of the Capitol riot, when a mob stormed the building where members of the House and Senate were preparing to certify the presidential election. Some rioters reportedly threatened the lives of elected officials in both parties.
When the House took up impeachment proceedings, Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives reportedly felt afraid to vote to impeach Trump – even fearing for their lives. A video also captured a group accosting Republican Lindsey Graham, a U.S. senator from South Carolina, screaming that he was a “traitor” after he declared that Joe Biden had been lawfully elected president.
These threats do not simply reflect increased levels of anger and depravity among individual Americans. Rather, they appear to be evidence of a more systemic use of fear and intimidation in U.S. politics, seeking to force fealty from Republicans and reinforce the authoritarian turn that defined Donald Trump’s leadership.
Engagement in public life in the U.S. has always carried risk, with public officials of both parties, journalists and even movie stars often the target of death threats and intimidation.
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With the advent of social media and the Trump presidency, however, the risks for public officials have grown substantially. As a professor of human rights and a practitioner of democracy-building and the rule of law, this trend symbolizes the depth of deterioration of democracy in the U.S.
Political violence
Before the insurrection, experts tracked current trends as part of a broader cycle of political violence in the U.S. that one analysis said “has occurred approximately every fifty years for the past two centuries.”
Even with a transfer of power, the question remains whether America will finally break this cycle or whether Trump has just planted the seeds for the next time.
Over the past few years, scholars and experts have warned that the U.S. is at risk of widespread political violence and democratic instability.
They identify four interconnected factors that make a society vulnerable to violence that aims to affect political systems and decision-making:
· “Elite factionalization,” in which political parties engage in winner-take-all competition to promote their own interests at almost any cost.
· A high level of societal polarization.
· Weakening democratic institutions, such as electoral processes and law enforcement, due in part to the erosion of public trust and bipartisan support.
· A rise in hate speech and militant rhetoric.
All of these are happening in the U.S. in significant measure.
Before the November 2020 election, a group of scholars called attention to the fact that a large number of Americans said they would accept violence to advance their parties’ political goals. By the end of 2020, experts were raising the alarm that the country was spinning toward political violence.
Supporters of President Donald Trump marched in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 14. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
Radicalization of the right
Trump’s claims of massive election fraud, intimidation of opponents and his own party members, attacks on free media and support for right-wing groups generated an extremist Make America Great Again movement. Observing a toxic mix of the president’s fabrications, the right-wing media ecosystem, conspiracy theories and increased isolation and insecurity due to COVID-19, former national security officials in late 2020 noted signs of “mass radicalization” in the U.S.
This sequence of events fits with research showing how hate and radicalization progress toward extreme beliefs and behaviors, including participation in collective violence.
Humans identify in groups and prioritize their own group. If there’s a threat of or competition between groups, some leaders will encourage followers to hate and dehumanize the other group – usually by painting their own group as a victim – and even to engage in violence or intimidation as self-defense. Group members who act in response, in turn, feel they’re contributing to their group’s survival.
Trump altered the norms of acceptable rhetoric and behavior within the Republican Party. He increased the tolerance for intimidation, hate and bullying, and demonized the Democratic Party and social justice movements, like Black Lives Matter, as unpatriotic dangers to America.
Before the 2020 election, evidence showed that the Republican Party had fewer democratic traits than almost all governing parties in the world’s democracies and “its rhetoric was closer to authoritarian parties, such as AKP in Turkey and Fidesz in Hungary.” These parties seek to build power by undermining democratic institutions, such as fair elections, independent judiciaries and media, and by using threatening rhetoric and being disrespectful of opponents.
Trump also legitimized preexisting extremist groups that use violence and intimidation. The mob that stormed the Capitol consisted of a range of groups and individuals with diverse ideologies – including the ultra-nationalist Proud Boys, white supremacists, anti-government and pro-gun militias such as the Oath Keepers and Three Percenters, QAnon conspiracy followers, and common Trump supporters and Republican officials.
They all came together as elements of Trump’s “Stop the Steal” effort to overturn the election of the actual winner, Joe Biden. The unifying narrative for them was the false idea that American democracy is under attack by Democrats and traitors, and that violence could be justified as part of patriotic self-defense.
What happens to moderation?
The Republican Party – with a few notable exceptions – embraced Donald Trump’s post-election rhetoric and the massive lie about election fraud. This is as a result of Trump’s control throughout the party, from its general members up through party leadership and affiliated media outlets – who felt obligated to support Trump no matter what he said or did.
Even though many Republicans have denounced the use of violence on Jan. 6, most officials continue to validate their voters’ concerns about election integrity, which are rooted in the “Stop the Steal” effort. Republican Party members defend their actions by claiming they are legitimate efforts to protect democracy.
As extremism rises, moderates who are willing to challenge the group’s direction are the first to be intimidated or silenced. Party leaders who have now called out the “Stop the Steal” lie and voted for impeachment are facing repercussions.
Republican congressional leaders Kevin McCarthy, left, and Mitch McConnell, center, with then-President Donald Trump. AP Photo/Evan Vucci
A legacy
Though Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has repudiated the “Stop the Steal” lie, early indications are that the Republican Party overall remains entrenched in the defense of Trump and partisan rhetoric at any cost. Nearly 9 out of 10 Republicans approved of Trump’s job performance even after the Capitol attack.
The climate in government continues to be fearful. Death threats against public officials of both parties are part of the justification for and opposition by Republicans to weapons checks required before entering the House floor.
Research shows that political violence can reinforce a group’s existence, solidify members’ interconnections and beget more violence. Even if Trump remains out of power and off Twitter, the events leading up and including Jan. 6 may reinforce his supporters’ feelings of affiliation to a highly distorted narrative of patriotism within the Republican Party, and could deepen polarization and elite factionalism. This adds to the difficulty of reversing the party’s autocratic turn.
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The aim of authoritarian parties is control or cooptation of law enforcement and the military, which are often seen as the last line of defense of democracy. This is why the potential that significant levels of sympathy, affiliation or even complicity with the MAGA movement exists within American police and the armed forces is so disturbing.
As a new president takes office, the resilience of U.S. democracy is on display. President Biden has already declared his intention to combat domestic extremism and radicalization. Even though Democrats are now in power, what happens next with the Republican Party, and its financial backers and supporters, will remake or break America’s democracy.
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